Principal Investigator: Leah Gerber
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The goal of my NCEAS sabbatical research is to bridge the gap between marine conservation science and management by validating ecosystem models used in management. While some attention has been given to predicting the impacts of fishing and model complexity with marine ecosystem models, the systematic understanding of the effects of model structure on model performance is at an early stage. I will characterize the types of models being employed by management agencies that use ecosystem based management. In evaluating the models, I will examine the efficacy of these models in their ability to:
1) capture true ecosystem dynamics, and
2) apply model results to real-world management
To do this I will create virtual marine ecosystems (VMEs), complete with ocean currents, nutrient cycling, biofeedback, plankton population dynamics and secondary consumers including fish, whales and a fishing fleet. VMEs will provide a known baseline with which to compare predictions from commonly used, but much less detailed ecosystem models. Ultimately I hope that this work will provide guidance about the use of MEMs models for different management agencies.
