New Projects Funded: 2010
Working Groups:
Comparative ecology of cities: What makes an urban biota “urban”? (Sept 2010)
Principal Investigators: Myla Aronson, Katti Madhusudan, Paige Warren, Charles Nilon
The rapid urbanization of the world has profound effects on global biodiversity and urbanization has been counted among the processes contributing to the homogenization of the world’s biota. However, there are few generalities of the patterns and drivers of urban biota and even fewer global comparative studies. Yet a comparative approach of urban biota is needed to produce comparable methodologies to understand, preserve, and monitor biodiversity in cities. We propose an NCEAS working group involving researchers from cities worldwide to develop synthesis of urban ecology. We ask the overarching question: “What makes an urban biota ‘urban’?” and with that, “Are the patterns of urban biota and the processes that shape them the same across the world’s cities?” We have identified several factors that may serve as filters determining species distributions. We propose a hierarchical series of filters: 1) regional scale biogeographic context, 2) metropolitan scale urban intensification, and 3) local scale socio-economic/cultural factors. We will use plants and birds as independent datasets for addressing these broad questions. There is a newly matured wealth of existing urban bird and plant datasets for cities of different sizes, ages, and cultural and development patterns such as Baltimore, Berlin, Jalisco, New York City, Phoenix, Potchefstroom, and Stockholm, among others. We propose to bring datasets together, using commonly available data (e.g. land cover layers, national censuses, life history databases) to synthesize the urban biota. Outcomes from these proposed extensive comparative analyses will not only help to push forward the frontiers of transdisciplinarity in ecology, but will also provide useful information for planners and managers.
Tropical coral reefs of the future: Modeling ecological outcomes from the analyses of current and historical trends (Sept 2010)
Principal Investigators: Peter Edmunds, Ruth Gates
Climate change and local impacts are driving unprecedented global declines in the integrity of marine ecosystems. Although reefs generally exemplify this biome degradation, some reefs and individuals corals on reefs appear surprisingly resistant or resilient to environmental disturbances. This suggests that they are better adapted, or possess community and/or organismic attributes that make them less vulnerable or better equipped to recover. We propose to synthesize data from long-term coral monitoring projects and the primary literature to identify biological attributes and physical conditions that associate with environmental resistance and resilience in coral species and reef communities. Further, we propose to use this information to feed a population and community level model aimed at projecting coral reef community structure for a Caribbean and a Pacific reef 200 years into the future.
Evaluating and improving open source software for nonlinear statistical modeling in ecology (Sept 2010)
Principal Investigators: Mark Maunder, Beth Gardner, Ben Bolker
Increasingly, non‐linear and complex models are applied as a tool for improving understanding of ecological systems. These statistical models are often used to test hypotheses and make inferences about ecological theories and management decisions based on available data. This explosion in the application of such models is due to rapid and current development of methodology to carryout statistical inference of complex nonlinear models and improvements in computer power (faster and multiple processors). While there are many tools available for statistical inference that differ in their effectiveness for specific applications, no formal comparisons have been conducted between various software packages. It is therefore important to identify which tools are most appropriate for given applications and to demonstrate how such tools can be used most effectively. We evaluate three open source software packages commonly used to carry out statistical inference of complex nonlinear models: OpenBUGS, AD Model Builder (ADMB), and R. To test the strengths and weaknesses of each package, we will bring together experts in all three software packages and apply a common set of ecological models. Working directly with NCEAS informatics staff, we will produce a web‐based guide regarding the utility of each package for particular applications that includes annotated model code for each package, the data sets used in the applications, and peer‐reviewed articles. We will also identify how the different packages can be modified to improve their applicability to an array of complex nonlinear models that are essential for advancing ecological research. As statistical models are becoming increasingly more complex and ecologists are faced with a myriad of software options, the results of this project will provide support for ecologists and analysts across a broad spectrum of specialties.
Climate change and invasive species: are non-natives poised for greater success in future climatic conditions? (Sept 2010)
Principal Investigators: Cascade Sorte, Jeff Dukes, Joshua Lawler
Climate change and biological invasions are two of the primary causes of biodiversity loss, and it has been hypothesized that these factors may operate synergistically in the future. We propose a working group composed of experimentalists and modelers whose objective will be to quantitatively evaluate the interaction between climate change and species invasions. First, we will conduct the first cross-ecosystem meta-analysis of non-native and native species’ physiological tolerances and impacts of changing climatic conditions on demographic rates. Our goal will be to address whether non-natives are poised for greater success in future climate conditions. Second, using information on current ranges and on physiological tolerances, we will construct a combination of bioclimatic envelope models and mechanistic distribution models to compare changes in range sizes for non-native and native species. Such integration between modeling techniques has rarely been attempted, despite it being one of the most promising methods for advancing our understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change. Finally, we will further integrate our meta-analysis and modeling results to address the relative change in invasion impacts for target species, with the goal of improving recommendations for conservation and management. The uncommon breadth and depth of our study will yield robust insights into how the spread and impact of invasive species will be altered by climate change. Specific results will inform estimates of the species- and location-specific risks of invasions, which will support invasive species management decisions. Our working group is uniquely poised to make progress toward forecasting the effects of climate change on species invasions because our participants have access to a large quantity of high-quality data and bring the theoretical and empirical expertise needed for the task.
Ecotoxicology of the Gulf Oil Spill: A Holistic Framework for Assessing Impacts (Aug 2010)
Principal Investigators: Sean Anderson, Gary Cherr & C. Pete Peterson
The largest oil spill in U.S. history, infused with dispersants released into the waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico in response to this still-unfolding disaster, has created an unprecedented threat to the ecology of coastal and marine communities. To date, most efforts have been directed towards halting the further release of oil, documenting the appearance of oil on the sea surface, and quantifying conspicuous impacts. With apparently limited ecotoxicological information, governmental and private entities are preparing to create and fund large-scale and long-term monitoring efforts across the Gulf. Our working group is an assemblage of ecologists, chemists, and ecotoxicologists with experience in coastal oil spills and coastal and pelagic ecology; some are engaged in collecting in situ data in the wake of the Gulf Coast spill. Our group will create a conceptual framework outlining potential long-term, direct, and indirect ecotoxicological impacts upon Gulf populations and communities, with a primary goal of providing this information to guide decision-making and funding entities on an expedited time table.
Red Flags and Species Endangerment: Meta-analytical Development of Criteria for Assessing Extinction Risk (Apr 2010)
Principal Investigators: Robin Waples, Jeffrey Hutchings
This project builds on previous work (some of it sponsored by NCEAS) to evaluate performance of criteria for identifying species at risk. Novel aspects of our approach include the following:
1) We begin with a conceptual definition of an endangered species (one that has entered a Red Zone where both extinction risk and uncertainty about biological processes increase non-linearly);
2) We will leverage large datasets that have become available over the last decade, including those for taxa (e.g., marine fishes) for which application of standard risk criteria has been very controversial;
3) We propose a rather broad interpretation of depensation and Allee effects that facilitates consideration of the importance of ecological and evolutionary processes;
4) We will explicitly consider how risks scale on the continuum populations/metapopulations/ESUs/ species;
5) We will evaluate practical utility of candidate RedFlag criteria by applying them to case studies of species that have been formally considered for federal protection in the US and Canada.
Biodiversity and the Functioning of Ecosystems: Translating Results from Model Experiments into Functional Reality (Apr 2010)
Principal Investigators: Bradley Cardinale, J. Emmett Duffy, David Hooper
We propose a working group that will advance recent efforts to synthesize one of the fastest growing fields of ecology ‐ Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning. Over the past two decades, more than 200 experiments have examined how the diversity of bacteria, fungi, plants and animals influence important ecosystem processes in habitats throughout the world. Though diversity effects have by no means been universal, recent summaries have revealed considerable generality in how the number of genes, species, and functional groups of organisms impacts the efficiency by which communities process the energy and matter that define how ecosystems function. These results suggest that modern biodiversity loss may have substantial impacts on the services that ecosystems provide to humanity. But the research remains controversial, in part, because results of often highly simplistic experiments have yet to be translated into meaningful predictions about how biodiversity loss will impact ecological processes in realistic systems at appropriate scales. We will overcome such limitations by accomplishing three goals at this frontier between academic and applied ecology:
1) We will develop quantitative scaling relationships that allow conversion of the results of small‐scale, short‐term experiments into predictions about the fraction of species required to optimize biological processes in more natural ecosystems;
2) We will characterize how biodiversity simultaneously impacts the suite of ecosystem processes that have been measured in past experiments to identify trade‐offs and potential synergisms, and to provide guidance on optimizing the multi‐functionality of diverse systems;
3) We will evaluate how the impacts of biodiversity on key ecological processes (e.g., biomass production) can be translated into ecosystem services (e.g., CO2 uptake and storage) that can be used to aid decisions in conservation and management.
Forecasting Phenology: Integrating Ecology, Climatology, and Phylogeny to Understand Plant Responses to Climate Change (Apr 2010)
Principal Investigators: Benjamin Cook, Elizabeth Wolkovich
The magnitude and direction of plant species responses to climate change have widespread consequences for trophic interactions, ecosystem services, and our ability to predict the shape of future communities. To date, however, research has focused primarily on documenting species responses without developing a detailed understanding of why some species and communities vary with climate and others do not. Combining expertise from ecologists, phylogeneticists, and climatologists, we will use extensive plant phenology data from experimental and observational studies across North America and Europe to conduct a metaanalysis and develop robust predictors of plant phenology responses and sensitivities to climate change. Our resulting database of phenological studies, their related climate variables, and phylogenetic trees will be, we believe, the most comprehensive data available to study the relationship between climate change and plant species' phenological responses. Our comparison of experiments to observational studies will test whether short-term, small-scale manipulations of climate can predict the long-term trends seen on global scales, and should improve the design of future climate manipulation experiments. Additionally, our work will develop new approaches for the use of climate metrics in ecology, and inform the designs of government data inventories and citizen science projects.
Ecology of Environmental Justice in Metropolitan Areas (Apr 2010)
Principal Investigators: Christopher Boone, Mary Cadenasso, J. Morgan Grove, Steward Pickett
This working group brings together experts in ecology and environmental justice to examine the socio-ecological dynamics of environmental justice in five metropolitan areas that occupy humid temperate, Mediterranean, arid desert, and subtropical biomes. The metropolitan areas include Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, Sacramento, and Phoenix.
Postdoctoral Associates:
Mariah Carbone
A Synthesis of Soil Respiration in Semi-Arid and Arid Ecosystems AcrossMultiple Spatial and Temporal Scales (Apr 2010)
Soil respiration (SR) represents a huge uncertainty in global climate models. This is because we lack a mechanistic understanding of the plant and microbial processes that drive SR rates across different landscapes and in time. Predicting SR in semi-arid/arid ecosystems is particularly challenging because of high interannual variability in precipitation, rapid wetting and drying cycles, large temperature variations, and short phenological cycles. By conducting a multiple phase synthesis of existing continuous SR datasets that span a range of semi-arid/arid ecosystem types, this work will improve our basic understanding of the mechanistic controls on SR in these ecosystems. Semi-arid/arid ecosystems cover large areas of Earth, and compared to tropical, temperate and boreal ecosystems, information about them is currently lacking in global synthesis studies. Specifically, this research will identify key biotic and abiotic drivers of SR in these ecosystems, and quantify their relative importance in a clear spatial and temporal framework. This will be accomplished through a combination of basic statistical and time series data analyses, novel isotopic techniques, as well as innovative model-data integration approaches.
Results will be used to:
1) Improve parameterization and mechanistic representation of SR in models;
2) Develop protocols and strategies for quantifying SR in and across semi-arid/arid ecosystems;
3) Create a uniform and publically accessible SR database with original and derived data products, including characterization of data uncertainties; and
4) Contribute more broadly to a global SR synthesis effort.
Jarrett Byrnes
Linking Network Theory and Biodiversity-Ecosystem Function Research: Topology Modifies the Consequences of Species Loss for the Flow of Energy and Nutrients within Food Webs (Apr 2010)
Over the past decade, the field of biodiversity-ecosystem function research has sought to understand the consequences of declines in species diversity due to human activities. The field has yielded many robust conclusions regarding the consequences of plant species loss for primary production and nutrient cycling. It has not, however, arrived at many generalities regarding the consequences of species loss at higher trophic levels for the flow of energy and nutrients through food webs, even in the most simplified of experimental systems. Nor do we have a strong idea of the consequences of extinction in food webs of real-world complexity. This lack of understanding is due to extinction altering not just the number of species in a food web, but also degrading the network structure of feeding connections between species.
I propose uniting biodiversity-ecosystem function research with food web network theory to better understand the consequences of species loss for the efficiency of trophic transfer within food webs. I propose developing a unified theoretical framework that examines the consequences of species loss in the context of food web network structure. I will then examine how real-world complexity alters the dynamics of trophic transfer by applying this framework to multiple long-term community data sets.
Lastly, I will perform a meta-analysis of published food web manipulations to examine how the topology of even simplified experiments can influence the dynamics of resource use. The results of this research will therefore fill a critical gap for managers in predicting the consequences of consumer species extinction in nature.
Center Fellows:
Max Moritz
Fire as a Global Ecological Disturbance (Apr 2010)
Fire affects a variety of biophysical patterns and processes, but we generally lack an understanding of fire’s ecological influence at broad scales. Two key issues highlight this knowledge gap:
1) Fire is certain to alter species distributions as global climate change progresses, yet most models of how species ranges may shift overlook this important ecological disturbance; and
2) Analyses of existing biodiversity patterns, especially from continental to global scales, typically ignore the possible influence of fire.
To address these issues, my sabbatical research will aim to synthesize current results on global patterns of fire, climate, and species distributions. This work should improve our understanding of fire’s direct and indirect influences on biodiversity, where different species will be able to persist as climate changes, and how to better incorporate fire into long-term conservation planning.
Joshua Tewksbury
Natural History: From Decline to Rebirth (Apr 2010)
Declines in natural history are reported in research, in education, and in childhood and adult experience. At the same time, the need for natural history information is in greater demand than ever before. Declines in natural history may have far reaching consequences, potentially reducing progress across the natural sciences, changing how we view and understand the world, and limiting the tools we have to plan for the future; and yet there is a paucity of data‐driven evaluations exploring changes in natural history in research, education, and in society. This raises an important question: is natural history truly declining or simply changing? Have we lost natural history from undergraduate education, or has it moved from taxon to topic‐focused courses? In this sabbatical, I propose to synthesize contemporary trends in natural history and explore their consequences. During my sabbatical, I will manage 4 workshops (funded externally) that will assist in re‐imaging the role of natural history in society, research, and education. I will draw together a large array of data on the practice of natural history – from graduate and undergraduate “field time” in US institutions, to field guide book sales, and trends in nature center enrollment and curricula. All of this data will become part of the NCEAS database. In addition, I will integrate this work with ongoing ecoinformatics initiatives at NCEAS (DataONE). This effort, and this proposal, is the product of a session I organized at the Ecological Society of America (ESA) annual meeting this year, focused on the past and future of natural history. This was the most heavily attended session of the meeting, with over 400 ecologists present, and multiple opportunities to synthesize this information (two book requests, two journal requests, and a workshop proposal to NSF) came directly from that session at ESA. The workshop proposal has now been funded, and I plan to integrate that work with ongoing initiatives at NCEAS.
Gary Mittelbach
Community Ecology in Transition (Apr 2010)
I propose to spend five months of my upcoming sabbatical leave at NCEAS working on two projects. My primary goal during this sabbatical is to complete a graduate-level text in Community Ecology (currently, about 60% written). I believe NCEAS is an ideal setting for this work. The stimulating intellectual environment of NCEAS, with its excellent cadre of resident postdoctoral fellows, sabbatical fellows, and visiting scientists, will provide unparalleled exposure to the latest ideas in ecology, as well as the opportunity to get broad feedback on the contents and organization of the book. Not only will this benefit me by improving the quality of the final text and making it more useful to the ecological community, but this project will also benefit the NCEAS community. I will use Ecolunch and other informal opportunities to share my ideas for how the subject of community ecology may be organized and taught. I have taught a graduate-level class in community ecology at Michigan State University for over 20 years. I am anxious to share this knowledge with others and to gather their input as well. In particular, I believe the NCEAS postdoctoral fellows, many of whom will end up with faculty positions teaching ecology, will profit from this interaction. Thus, I envision a productive synergy between this sabbatical project and the intellectual community at NCEAS. In addition, while at NCEAS, I will be working with Howard Cornell, Kaustuv Roy, and Doug Schemske on research examining the role of biotic interactions in driving latitudinal variation in rates of diversification.
Katherine Gross
Predicting Grassland Community Responses to Fertilization: Exploring the Role of Clonality and Other Species Traits (Apr 2010)
Nutrient enrichment is predicted to be one of the top three drivers of biodiversity loss this century (Sala et al. 2000). It is therefore critical to understand how biodiversity will respond to elevated nutrient levels in different ecosystems, including which species or functional groups will come to dominate in high fertility environments and why. In grasslands, high fertility sites are often dominated by clonal species. The observation that declining or hump-shaped diversity-productivity relationships occur more frequently when clonal species are present suggests that clonal species may play an important role in community responses to nutrient enhancement. However, the mechanisms underlying this effect, or if there are specific traits of clonal species that determine their ability to dominate high fertility environments is unknown. As a Sabbatical Fellow as NCEAS, I propose to address this question by analyzing data from fertilization experiments combined with databases of species traits to determine if there are correlated traits that determine when clonal species will dominate in response to nutrient enhancement and if there is an environmental context (site history, productivity, soil fertility, species and functional group composition) to this response. I have proposed three projects, two which I expect to complete while a Fellow; the third, I will initiate at NCEAS. The first two projects will build on my ongoing long-term research in SW Michigan grasslands and involvement in the Productivity-Diversity Traits Network (PDTNet). Using my own data, the PDTNetwork, and other published data, I will conduct a multi-variate analysis of species and environmental traits to determine the conditions that promote (or preclude) dominance by clonal species in response to nutrient enrichment. The third project will be a literature survey to develop a global database of published field experiments on grassland community responses to fertilization. This will form the basis of a trait-based meta-analysis and global synthesis of clonal species responses to and impacts on diversity in grasslands. I expect this project to become the focus of an NSF-RCN or future working group proposal to the National Center for Environmental Synthesis.
Distributed Graduate Seminar:
Developing Curricula and Model Systems for Sustainability Science (Apr 2010)
Principal Investigators: Jeannine Cavender-Bares, Stephen Polasky
Sustaining the systems that support life while meeting human needs represents one of the greatest challenges that we face in the 21st century. Sustainability science is a use-inspired science aimed at addressing this challenge. We propose a two-year distributed graduate seminar across six institutions to address core concepts in sustainability science and to develop model systems for advancement of theory and tools for sustainable management. The collaboration will benefit from interaction and synthesis across institutions and disciplines, the hallmark of NCEAS, and from the technical, data management and cyber-support that NCEAS can provide. Four key outcomes include:
1) A curriculum and publically accessible wiki for sustainability science to provide a pedagogic foundation for the emerging field;
2) The development of model systems for sustainability science to promote rapid advances;
3) A synthesis of key insights from applying a sustainability science framework to these model systems; and
4) A series of team case studies including inclusive valuation of shifts in land-use and restoration to aid decision making.
