TABLE 1. This table examines the effect of seed sample number on the relative size of a 95% confidence interval (CI) about an estimated rate of apparent gene flow (Pa) to the value of the estimate itself. This relationship is expressed as the ratio of the 95% CI to Pa and is examined for cases in which the number of possible paternal parents is 5, the total rate of gene flow is 5 or 10%, and the probability of paternity exclusion is 0.80 or 0.90 Even with only five possible parents per population, several hundred seeds may need to be sampled in order for the width of the 95% CI to be less than twice Pa. (Table prepared by J. Nason).
|
Total rate of gene flow equals 5% |
Total rate of gene flow equals 10% |
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|
Probability |
Apparent |
Upper |
Apparent |
Lower |
Ratio of |
Apparent |
Upper |
Apparent |
Lower |
Ratio of |
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|
of paternity |
Seeds |
gene flow |
95% CI |
gene flow |
95% CI |
95% CI |
gene flow |
95% CI |
gene flow |
95% CI |
95% CI |
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|
exclusion |
sampled |
events |
limit |
Pa |
limit |
to Pa |
events |
limit |
Pa |
limit |
to Pa |
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|
0.80 |
50 |
1 |
0.097 |
0.016 |
0.000 |
5.925 |
2 |
0.122 |
0.033 |
0.004 |
3.593 |
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|
75 |
1 |
0.080 |
0.016 |
0.000 |
4.860 |
2 |
0.106 |
0.033 |
0.004 |
3.127 |
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|
100 |
2 |
0.062 |
0.016 |
0.002 |
3.671 |
3 |
0.091 |
0.033 |
0.007 |
2.564 |
||||||
|
200 |
3 |
0.046 |
0.016 |
0.003 |
2.615 |
7 |
0.067 |
0.033 |
0.013 |
1.643 |
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|
300 |
5 |
0.038 |
0.016 |
0.005 |
1.992 |
10 |
0.060 |
0.033 |
0.016 |
1.340 |
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|
400 |
7 |
0.034 |
0.016 |
0.007 |
1.645 |
13 |
0.055 |
0.033 |
0.017 |
1.159 |
||||||
|
500 |
8 |
0.032 |
0.016 |
0.007 |
1.499 |
16 |
0.052 |
0.033 |
0.019 |
1.022 |
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|
600 |
10 |
0.030 |
0.016 |
0.008 |
1.333 |
20 |
0.050 |
0.033 |
0.020 |
0.901 |
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|
700 |
11 |
0.029 |
0.016 |
0.008 |
1.257 |
23 |
0.048 |
0.033 |
0.021 |
0.843 |
||||||
|
800 |
13 |
0.028 |
0.016 |
0.009 |
1.156 |
26 |
0.047 |
0.033 |
0.021 |
0.786 |
||||||
|
900 |
15 |
0.027 |
0.016 |
0.009 |
1.106 |
29 |
0.046 |
0.033 |
0.022 |
0.739 |
||||||
|
1000 |
16 |
0.027 |
0.016 |
0.009 |
1.079 |
33 |
0.046 |
0.033 |
0.023 |
0.697 |
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|
0.90 |
50 |
1 |
0.130 |
0.030 |
0.001 |
4.367 |
3 |
0.164 |
0.059 |
0.012 |
2.563 |
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|
75 |
2 |
0.099 |
0.030 |
0.004 |
3.246 |
4 |
0.141 |
0.059 |
0.016 |
2.117 |
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|
100 |
3 |
0.084 |
0.030 |
0.006 |
2.647 |
6 |
0.125 |
0.059 |
0.022 |
1.738 |
||||||
|
200 |
6 |
0.063 |
0.030 |
0.011 |
1.776 |
12 |
0.101 |
0.059 |
0.031 |
1.190 |
||||||
|
300 |
9 |
0.057 |
0.030 |
0.014 |
1.463 |
18 |
0.091 |
0.059 |
0.035 |
0.950 |
||||||
|
400 |
12 |
0.051 |
0.030 |
0.015 |
1.207 |
24 |
0.087 |
0.059 |
0.039 |
0.814 |
||||||
|
500 |
15 |
0.049 |
0.030 |
0.017 |
1.079 |
30 |
0.083 |
0.059 |
0.041 |
0.709 |
||||||
|
600 |
18 |
0.045 |
0.030 |
0.018 |
0.940 |
35 |
0.080 |
0.059 |
0.042 |
0.651 |
||||||
|
700 |
21 |
0.044 |
0.030 |
0.018 |
0.887 |
41 |
0.078 |
0.059 |
0.043 |
0.599 |
||||||
|
800 |
24 |
0.043 |
0.030 |
0.019 |
0.822 |
47 |
0.077 |
0.059 |
0.044 |
0.556 |
||||||
|
900 |
27 |
0.043 |
0.030 |
0.020 |
0.779 |
53 |
0.076 |
0.059 |
0.045 |
0.528 |
||||||
|
1000 |
30 |
0.042 |
0.030 |
0.020 |
0.737 |
59 |
0.075 |
0.059 |
0.046 |
0.496 |
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