Dr. Ottar Bjornstad’s research focus on population biology and epidemiology.  Since starting the project (September 1998), he has published 5 papers on his main NCEAS projects relating to stochastic age-structured dynamics (2xEcology, Proc Natl Acad Sci, Proc Roy Soc Lond B and ICES). A sixth study developing a theoretical framework for understanding the effects of recruitment variability is currently in the working (in collaboration with Roger Nisbet at UCSB).

In addition to this, Dr. Bjornstad has published 10 other papers during the project period (Nature, PNAS, Proc Roy Soc Lond B, Ecology, J. Anim Ecol, Oikos, American Naturalist, Trends in Ecology and Evolution, and Environ Ecol Statist). He has furthermore submitted 4 other manuscripts.

Dr. Bjornstad was recently offered a tenure-track assistant professorship in biology and Entomology (adjunct in Statistics) at Penn State University, to start on Jan. 1st, 2001.

Dr. Bjornstad has partaken in four NCEAS working groups: Leibhold & Gurevtich’s Spatial Analysis (completed June 2000); Dobson & Holt’s Conservation and Disease; Real & Dobson’s Spatial disease dynamics, and Kelly et al.’s masting dynamics. Three of these are ongoing events.  He has given invited lectures (and therebye represented NCEAS) at the following institutions:
University of California Santa Cruz (May, 2000), University of Washington, Seattle (February, 2000), PennState (January 2000), Warwick, UK (October 1999), Cambridge, UK (November 2000, October, 1999),  Norwegian Academy of Science an letters, Norway (September 1999), and Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta (June, 1999).

Detailed references:
Bjørnstad, O.N., Sait, S.M., Stenseth, N.C., Thompson, D.J. & Begon, M. 2001. Coupling and the impact of specialised enemies on the dimensionality of prey dynamics. Nature, in press.
Bjørnstad, O. N. and Falck, W. 2001. Nonparametric spatial covariance functions: estimation and testing. Environmental and Ecological Statistics, in press.
Fromentin, J.-M., Myers, R. A., Bjørnstad, O. N., Stenseth, N. C., Gjøsæter, J. & Christie, H. 2001. Effects of density-dependent and stochastic processes on the regulation of cod populations. Ecology, in press.
Bjørnstad, O.N. 2000. Cycles and synchrony: two historical ‘experiments’ and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology 69: 869-873.
Bjørnstad, O.N. and Bolker, B. 2000. Canonical functions for dispersal-induced synchrony. Proceedings of Royal Society London B 267: 1787-1794.
Kendall, B. E., Bjørnstad, O. N., Bascompte, J., Keith, T. and Fagan, W. 2000. Ecological interactions, environmental correlation and spatial synchrony. American Naturalist 155: 628-636.
Frometin, J.-M., Gjøsæter, J., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N.C. 2000. Biological processes and environmental factors regulating the temporal dynamics of the Norwegian Skagerrak cod since 1919. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 57: 330-338.
Bjørnstad, O. N., Ims, R. A. and Lambin, X. 1999a. Spatial population dynamics: Causes and consequences of spatial synchrony in density fluctuations. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 14:427-431.
Childs, J.E. , Curns, A., Dey, M., Real, L.A. , Feinstein, L., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Krebs, J.W. 2000. Predicting the local dynamics of epizootic rabies among raccoons in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, to appear in December issue.
Bjørnstad, O.N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N.C. and Gjøsæter, J. 1999b. A new test for density-dependent survival: the case of coastal cod populations Ecology 80:1278-1288.
Bjørnstad, O. N., Fromentin, J.-M., Stenseth, N. C. and Gjøsæter, J. 1999c. Cycles and trends in cod population. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA 96:5066-5071.
Bjørnstad, O.N., Stenseth, N. C. and Saitoh,T. 1999d. Synchrony and scaling in dynamics of voles and mice in northern Japan. Ecology 80:622-637.
Saitoh, T., Bjørnstad, O.N. and Stenseth, N. C. 1999. Density-dependence in voles and mice: a comparative analysis. Ecology 80:638-650.
Stenseth, N.C., Bjørnstad, O.N., Falck, W., Fromentin, J.-M., Gjøsæter, J., and Gray, J.S. 1999. Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and inter-cohort density-dependence and stochastic processes. Proceedings of Royal Society London, B. 266:1645-1654.
Micheli, F., Cottingham, K. L., Bascompte, J., Bjørnstad, O. N., Eckert, G. L., Fischer, J. M., Keitt, T. H., Kendall, B. E., Klug, J. L. and Rusak, J. A. 1999. The dual nature of community variability. Oikos 85:161-169

Manuscripts Submitted:
Finkenstädt, B., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Grenfell, B.T. (submitted) A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics: estimation and inference for measles outbreaks. (Journal of the American Statistical Association).
Bjørnstad, O.N., Finkenstädt, B. & Grenfell, B.T. (submitted) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: estimating epidemiological scaling with a time series SIR model. (Ecology).
Grenfell, B.T., Bjørnstad, O.N. & Finkenstädt, B. (submitted) Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles: Scaling predictability, noise and determinism with the  time series SIR model. (Ecology).
Bjørnstad, O. N. & Bascompte, J. (submitted) Synchrony and second order spatial correlation in host-parasitoid systems.

Invited lectures:
2000 'The cohort resonance effect: Trends and cycles in cod' Dept Zool, Cambridge, UK. November, 2000
2000 'Stochastic epidemics: predictability and TSIR estimation' Joint Statistics Meeting, Indianapolis, Indiana. August, 2000.
2000 ‘Spatial synchrony in population growth: predictions from models and patterns in data' Dept Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, California. May, 2000.
2000 ‘Spatial synchrony in population growth: predictions from models and patterns in data' Dept Zoology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington. February, 2000.
2000 ‘Spatial synchrony in population growth: predictions from models and patterns in data' Dept Entomolgy, PennState, Pennsylvania. January 2000.
1999 ‘Trends and cycles in Cod dynamics' Dept Biology, PennState, Pennsylvania. December 1999.
1999 ‘Trends and cycles in Cod: Understanding stochastic age- structured dynamics’ Dept Statistic/Dept Biology, Warwick, UK. October 1999.
1999 ‘Synchrony and Spatial scaling: Empirical inquiries and theoretical speculations’ Kings College, Cambridge, UK. October, 1999.
1999 ‘The population dynamics of the grey-sided voles in Hokkaido (with Dr Takashi Saitoh)’ Norwegian Academy of Science an letters, Oslo, Norway. September 1999.
1999 ‘The population dynamics of moths and their enemies: insight from an experimental study (with Dr Mike Begon)’ Norwegian Academy of Science an letters, Oslo, Norway. September 1999.
1999 'Dynamics of measles: disease persistence and outbreaks' Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia. June, 1999.
1999 'Persistence and outbreaks in viral diseases: endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles' School of Fisheries, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington. April, 1999.
1999 'Stochastic population dynamics and time series analysis of abundance: two case studies'. Department of Statistics, University of California Santa Barbara, California. February, 1999.