NCEAS Project 11561

Global climate change and adaptation of conservation priorities

  • M. Rebecca Shaw

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group12th—13th May 2009Participant List  
Working Group2nd—4th November 2009Participant List  
Working Group10th—13th August 2010Participant List  
Working Group15th—16th May 2011Participant List  
Working Group5th—6th April 2012Participant List  

Abstract
This working group will develop methods for the production of future climate projections at biologically-relevant scales (30m - 5km). Methods explored will include expert-driven and Baysian probability frameworks. The group will include expertise in taking information from multiple GCMs and multiple climatologists to make informed estimates of local changes in temperature and precipitation. The methods developed will allow use of information from GCMs and RCMs where they are in agreement, but use expert opinion where the climate models clearly do not capture local conditions well (e.g., fire weather, fog, snowpack). This method will be relevant to local changes in individual species and viable for individual management areas, such as individual parks and conservation areas.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Presentations Davis, Frank W.; Franklin, Janet; Ikegami, Maki; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Flint, Alan; Hannah, Lee. 2010. Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine-scale do climate models need to be?. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, Dec. 13-17, 2010: . San Francisco, CA.
Presentations Davis, Frank W. 2012. Modeling species distributions to support conservation planning. National Acadey of Sciences Joint US/Iran Workshop on Wildlife conservation and Habitat Management, Irvine, CA, April 2012.
Journal Article Lawler, Joshua J.; Tear, Timothy H.; Pyke, Chris; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Gonzalez, Patrick; Kareiva, Peter; Hansen, Lara J.; Hannah, Lee; Klausmeyer, Kirk; Aldous, Allison; Bienz, Craig; Pearsall, Sam. 2010. Resource management in a changing and uncertain climate. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. Vol: 8(1). Pages 35-43. (Online version)