NCEAS Project 11601
Unifying approaches to statistical inference in ecology
- Aaron A. King
- Pejman Rohani
| Activity | Dates | Further Information |
|---|---|---|
| Working Group | 19th—23rd March 2007 | Participant List |
| Working Group | 3rd—7th December 2007 | Participant List |
| Working Group | 16th—20th June 2008 | Participant List |
| Working Group | 12th—16th January 2009 | Participant List |
| Working Group | 12th—16th April 2010 | Participant List |
Abstract
In the face of ecological complexity, it has very often proved useful to formulate mathematical models, which allow us to examine the consequences of specific sets of assumptions. While this approach has generated interesting and important ideas, progress has been frustrated by a fundamental hurdle: direct confrontation of models and data in a statistically robust way. We propose a working group aimed at overcoming this hurdle by synthesizing numerous state-of-the-art techniques. The approaches we will consider explicitly take into account common causes of mismatch between models and data such as process noise (demographic and environmental stochasticity), measurement error, unobserved variables, and nonstationarity. The end result of this working group will be a thorough review of the strengths and weaknesses of the various approaches under different circumstances and a set of easy-to-use statistical tools for use by non-specialists.
| Type | Products of NCEAS Research |
|---|---|
| Journal Article | Boots, Michael; Childs, Dylan; Reuman, Daniel; Mealor, Michael. 2009. Local interactions lead to pathogen driven change to host population dynamics. Current Biology. Vol: 19. Pages 1660-1664. |
| Presentations | Breto, Carles. 2008. Presentation n. Joint Statistical Meeting, August 2008. Denver, Colorado. |
| Journal Article | Breto, Carles; He, D.; King, Aaron A.; Ionides, Edward. 2009. Time series analysis via mechanistic models. Annals of Applied Statistics. Vol: 3(1). Pages 319-348. |
| Journal Article | Breto, Carles; Ionides, Edward. 2011. Compound Markov counting processes and their applications to modeling infinitesimally over-dispersed systems. Stochastic Processes and Their Applications. Vol: 121(11). Pages 2571-2591. (Online version) |
| Journal Article | Chen, Shi; Fricks, John; Ferrari, Matthew. 2011. Tracking measles infection through non-linear state space models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C-Applied Statistics. Vol: 61(1). Pages 117-134. (Online version) |
| Journal Article | Conlan, Andrew J.K.; Rohani, Pejman; Lloyd, Alun L.; Keeling, Matthew J.; Grenfell, Bryan T. 2010. Resolving the impact of waiting time distributions on the persistence of measles. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. Vol: 7(45). Pages 623-640. |
| Presentations | Ferrari, Matthew. 2008. Presentation i. DIMACS workshop on Spatiotempral and network modeling of diseases, 2008. Tuebingen, Germany. |
| Presentations | Ferrari, Matthew. 2008. Presentation k. Harvard School of Public Health, 2008. |
| Journal Article | Ferrari, Matthew; Grais, R. F.; Bharti, Nita; Conlan; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Wolfson, L. J.; Guerin, P. J.; Djibo, A.; Grenfell, Bryan T. 2008. The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa. Nature. Vol: 451. Pages 679-684. |
| Journal Article | He, D.; Ionides, Edward; King, Aaron A. 2008. Plug and play inference for disease dynamics: Measles in large and small towns as a case study. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. |
| Journal Article | Ionides, Edward; Breto, Carles; King, Aaron A. 2006. Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol: 103. Pages 18438-18443. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2007. Presentation. University of Cambridge, Statistics group seminar, 2007. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2007. Presentation. Cornell University, Statistics department seminar, 2007. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2007. Presentation. University of St Andrews, seminar for National Centre for Statistical Ecology, 2007. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2007. Presentation. University of Pittsburgh, Mathematical Biology group seminar, 2007. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2007. Presentation. Wayne State University, Probability and Statistics group seminar, 2007. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2007. Presentation. University of Oxford, Statistics department seminar, 2007. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2007. Presentation. Pennsylvania State University, Statistics department seminar, 2007. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2007. Presentation. Pennsylvania State University, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, 2007. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2007. Presentation. Workshop on Statistical Methods for Modeling Dynamic Systems, 2007. Montreal, Canada. |
| Book Chapter | Ionides, Edward; Breto, Carles; King, Aaron A. 2008. Modeling disease dynamics: Cholera as a case study. Edited by A. Biswas, S. Datta, J. Fine, M. Segal Statistical Advances in the Biomedical Sciences. Vol: Ch. 8. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2008. Presentation. University of Cambridge Department of Applied Mathematics and Mathematical Physics, Mathematical Biology group seminar, 2008. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2008. Presentation. Joint Statistical Meeting, August 2008. Denver, Colorado. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2008. Presentation a. Pennsylvania State University, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, workshop on epidemic model hierarchies and model validation, 2008. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2008. Presentation d. Duke University, Computational Biology /& Bioinformatics seminar, 2008. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2008. Presentation f. Workshop on Sequential Monte Carlo at SAMSI, 2008. North Carolina. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2008. Presentation g. Columbia University, Statistics department seminar, 2008. |
| Presentations | Ionides, Edward. 2008. Presentation h. University of Cambridge Department of Engineering, Signal Processing group seminar, 2008. |
| Journal Article | Ionides, Edward; Bhadra, A.; King, Aaron A. Iterated filtering. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B-Statistical Methodology. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2007. Presentation. Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, 2007. Tucson, Arizona. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2007. Presentation. National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 2007. Santa Barbara. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2007. Presentation. Applied and Interdisciplinary Mathematics Program, University of Michigan, 2007. Arbor, Michigan. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2007. Presentation. Ecology Society of America Annual Meeting, 2007. San Jose, California. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2007. Presentation. Department of Biology, Case Western Reserve University, 2007. Cleveland, Ohio. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2007. Presentation. Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Populations in Biological Systems Conference, 2007. Tucson, Arizona. |
| Journal Article | King, Aaron A.; Ionides, Edward; Pascual, Mercedes; Bouma, Menno J. 2008. Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature. Vol: 454. Pages 877-880. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2008. Presentation. Department of Mathematics, University of California, Berkeley, 2008. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2008. Presentation c. Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, February, 2008. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2008. Presentation j. Ecology Society of America Annual Meeting, 2008. Milwaukee, Wisconsin. |
| Software | King, Aaron A. Two algorithms for the POMP package. |
| Journal Article | Mantilla-Beniers, Natalia B.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Grenfell, Bryan T.; Rohani, Pejman. 2010. Decreasing stochasticity through enhanced seasonality in measles epidemics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface. Vol: 7(46). Pages 727-739. |
| Presentations | Newman, Ken B. 2008. Presentation m. Joint Statistical Meeting, Denver, Colorado, August 2008. |
| Journal Article | Newman, Ken B.; Fernández, C.; Thomas, Len; Buckland, S. T. 2009. Monte Carlo inference for state-space models of wild animal populations. Biometrics. Vol: 65. Pages 572-583. |
| Presentations | Reuman, Daniel. 2007. Presentation. Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, 22 November 2007. Sheffield, UK. |
| Journal Article | Reuman, Daniel; Costantino, Robert F.; Desharnais, Robert A.; Cohen, J. E. 2008. Colour of environmental noise affects the nonlinear dynamics of cycling, stage-structured populations. Ecology Letters. Vol: 11. Pages 820-830. |
| Presentations | Reuman, Daniel. 2008. Presentation b. Center for Population Biology, Imperial College London, 4 February 2008. London. |
| Presentations | Reuman, Daniel. 2009. Presentation. Department of Zoology, University of Florida, 20, 22 January 2009. Gainesville, Florida. |
| Presentations | Reuman, Daniel. 2009. Presentation. School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, 18 February 2009. London. |
| Presentations | Rohani, Pejman. 2008. Presentation. Department of Biology, University of North Carolina, April 2008. |
| Presentations | Rohani, Pejman. 2008. Presentation e. Department of Avian Health, University of Georgia, Nov 2008. |
| Presentations | Rohani, Pejman. 2008. Presentation l. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dec 2008. |
| Presentations | Rohani, Pejman. 2008. Presentation o. Department of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Feb 2008. |
| Presentations | Rohani, Pejman. 2009. Presentation. Institute of Complex Systems, Ecole Normal Supererior, Jan 2009. Paris, France. |
| Journal Article | Sourya, Shrestha; King, Aaron A.; Rohani, Pejman. 2011. Statistical inference for multi-pathogen systems. PLoS Computational Biology. Vol: 7(8). Pages e1002135-e1002135. |
| Presentations | Wearing, Helen. 2008. Presentation p. University of New Mexico, 2008. |
| Journal Article | Wearing, Helen; Rohani, Pejman. 2009. Estimating the duration of pertussis immunity using epidemiological signatures. PLoS Pathogens. Vol: 5(10). Pages e1000647-e1000647. |