NCEAS Project 12054

Mechanistic distribution models: Energetics, fitness, and population dynamics

  • Lauren B. Buckley
  • Michael J. Angilletta
  • Robert D. Holt
  • Joshua Tewksbury

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group13th—17th November 2007Participant List  
Working Group3rd—7th November 2008Participant List  
Working Group23rd—26th May 2011Participant List  

Biologists must understand the dynamics of species distributions to address questions about community structure and to predict distributional shifts over space and time (1). Despite recent theoretical progress (2), predictions of species' ranges still rely largely on correlational methods (3, 4). Our working group will achieve a more dynamic and mechanistic understanding of species' distributions by incorporating individual energetics, fitness curves, population dynamics, and evolutionary change. Several distinct, but complementary, mechanistic models of species' distributions were recently published and share strong mechanistic and physiological bases (5-7). The working group will evaluate these mechanistic models, synthesize salient features of each, and generalize the synthetic model to include physiological adaptation (both plastic and evolutionary), species interactions, and dispersal limitations. Model development and empirical validation will focus on predicting climate-induced shifts in native ranges and the spread of invasive species using both modern and paleontological data.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Angert, Amy L.; Crozier, Lisa; Gilman, Sarah; Tewksbury, Joshua; Rissler, Leslie J.; Chunco, Amanda J. 2011. Do species traits predict recent shifts at expanding range edges?. Vol: 14. Pages 677-689. (Online version)
Journal Article Angilletta, Michael J.; Sears, Michael. 2011. Coordinating theoretical and empirical efforts to understand the linkages between organisms and environments. Integrative and Comparative Biology. Vol: 51(5). Pages 653-661. (Online version)
Journal Article Buckley, Lauren B.; Urban, Mark C.; Angilletta, Michael J.; Crozier, Lisa; Rissler, Leslie J.; Sears, Michael. 2010. Can mechanism inform species distribution models?. Vol: 13. Pages 1041-1054. (Online version)
Journal Article Buckley, Lauren B.; Kingsolver, Joel G. 2012. Functional and phylogenetic approaches to forecasting species' responses to climate change. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics. Vol: 43(1). Pages 205-226. (Online version)
Journal Article Buckley, Lauren B.; Tewksbury, Joshua; Deutsch, Curtis. 2013. Can terrestrial ectotherms escape the heat of climate change by moving?. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 280(1765). Pages 20131149-20131149. (Online version)
Journal Article Gilman, Sarah; Urban, Mark C.; Tewksbury, Joshua; Gilchrist, George W.; Holt, Robert D. 2010. A framework for community interactions under climate change. Vol: 25(6). Pages 325-331.
Journal Article Holt, Robert D. 2009. Bringing the Hutchinsonian niche into the 21st century: Ecological and evolutionary perspectives. Vol: 106. Pages 19659-19665. (Online version)
Journal Article Kearney, Michael R.; Wintle, Brendan; Porter, Warren P. 2010. Correlative and mechanistic models of species distribution provide congruent forecasts under climate change. Vol: 3(3). Pages 203-213. (Online version)
Journal Article Sears, Michael; Raskin, Evan; Angilletta, Michael J. 2011. The world is not flat: Defining relevant thermal landscapes in the context of climate change. Integrative and Comparative Biology. Vol: 51(5). Pages 666-675. (Online version)
Journal Article Urban, Mark C.; Holt, Robert D.; Gilman, Sarah; Tewksbury, Joshua. 2011. Heating up relations between cold fish: competition modifies responses to climate change. Vol: 80. Pages 505-507. (Online version)
Journal Article Urban, Mark C.; Tewksbury, Joshua; Sheldon, Kimberly S. 2012. On a collision course: Competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 279. Pages 2072-2080. (Online version)