Relative influence of fuels, climate, and ignition on fire frequency across earth's ecosystems

• Jennifer K. Balch

Abstract
Fire is a critical catalyst of climate and vegetation change across the globe. Future shifts in fire regimes -- associated with anthropogenic change -- may alter ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles on a global scale. Yet, modeling efforts largely ignore fire in global vegetation and climate projections. Therefore, I propose to synthesize published data on fuel production, climate, and ignition sources with reconstructed fire histories in order to investigate the determinants of fire frequency across scales and ecosystems. Rather than gauge how fire influences the biosphere, I plan to assess the factors that control the global fire cycle. This fire-centric approach will illuminate the biotic and abiotic factors that increase fire frequency. Moreover, the results will provide mechanistic insights into historical fire patterns and bolster predictions of future fire regimes in an era of accelerating global land-cover and climate change.