NCEAS Project 12240

Quantifying long-term landscape vegetation dynamics in and around Kibale National Park, Uganda, to establish appropriate landscapes for zoonotic disease models

  • Sadie J. Ryan

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Postdoctoral Fellow1st March 2009—31st July 2011Participant List  

Abstract
Models of zoonotic diseases, particularly those at the spillover interface, require a certain degree of spatial information that theoretical, spatially implicit models cannot always encompass. This is often the situation for parasitic or locally contaminant infectious diseases, or location-specific reservoirs that re-infect populations. For these types of diseases, particularly those that may be the subject of vaccination programs, agent-based models incorporating explicit landscapes may provide a more appropriate framework for analyzing disease spread. However, introducing the complexity of geographically explicit landscape interactions, particularly with temporal dynamics, is irrelevant if the mechanisms and agency of disease spread within that landscape is not reducible to patterns at a scale meaningful to the model’s mechanistic drivers. In this project I propose to examine a specific landscape, Kibale National Park, Uganda, in which primate parasitic disease, anthropogenic fragmentation and climate change are posited to be interacting. I am currently working on agent-based models of zoonotic diseases, particularly addressing the human-primate interface, and would like to complement this work with quantified, data-driven dynamic landscapes. This will lay the groundwork for similar approaches in other sites and scenarios, such as Ebola vaccination in gorillas (with P. Walsh, NCEAS working group) and control of SIV or respiratory disease transmission in Gombe chimpanzees (with M. Wilson and A. Pusey, Jane Goodall Institute, MN).

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Presentations Hartter, Joel; Stampone, Mary; Ryan, Sadie J.; Chapman, Colin A. 2010. Dynamics in protected areas and domesticated landscapes caused by climate change and anthropogenic use. Annual Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU). San Francisco.
Journal Article Hartter, Joel; Ryan, Sadie J.; Southworth, Jane; Chapman, Colin A. 2010. Fortresses and fragments: Impacts of fragmentation in a forest park landscape. Proceedings of IUFRO Landscape Ecology International Conference. Pages 233-238.
Journal Article Hartter, Joel; Ryan, Sadie J. 2010. Top-down or bottom-up? Decentralization, natural resource management and usufruct rights in the forests and wetlands of Western Uganda. Land Use Policy. Vol: 27(3). Pages 815-826.
Journal Article Hartter, Joel; Ryan, Sadie J.; Southworth, Jane; Chapman, Colin A. 2011. Landscapes as continuous entities: Forest disturbance and recovery in the Albertine Rift landscape. Landscape Ecology. Vol: 26(6). Pages 877-890. (Online version)
Journal Article Hartter, Joel; Stampone, Mary; Ryan, Sadie J.; Kirner, Karen; Chapman, Colin A.; Goldman, Abraham. 2012. Patterns and perceptions of climate change in a biodiversity conservation hotspot. PLoS ONE. Vol: 7(2). Pages e32408-e32408. (Online version)
Software Ladau, Joshua; Ryan, Sadie J.; Schwager, Steven J. 2008. CoOccur, Software for Implementing Robust Null Model Tests in Ecology. (Online version)
Software Ladau, Joshua; Ryan, Sadie J. 2008. MPower, Software for Assessing the Reliability of Null Model Tests in Ecology. (Online version)
Journal Article Ladau, Joshua; Ryan, Sadie J. 2010. MPowering ecologists: Community assembly tools for community assembly rules. Oikos. Vol: 119(7). Pages 1064-1069.
Journal Article Mordecai, Erin A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Johnson, Leah R.; Balzer-Rogers, Christian; Ben-Horin, Tal; de Moor, Emily; McNally, Amy; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J.; Smith, Thomas C.; Lafferty, Kevin D. 2013. Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. Ecology Letters. Vol: 16(1). Pages 22-30. (Online version)
Journal Article Pettorelli, Nathalie; Ryan, Sadie J.; Mueller, Thomas; Bunnefeld, Nils; Jedrzejewska, Bogumila; Lima, Mauricio; Kausrud, Kyrre. 2011. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI): Unforseen successes in animal ecology. Climate Research. Vol: 46(1). Pages 15-27.
Journal Article Rudnick, Deborah A.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Beier, Paul; Cushman, Samuel A.; Dieffenbach, Fred; Epps, Clinton W.; Gerber, Leah R.; Hartter, Joel; Jenness, Jeff S.; Kintsch, Julia; Merenlender, Adina M.; Perkl, Ryan M.; Preziosi, Damian V.; Trombulak, Stephen C. 2012. The role of landscape connectivity in planning and implementing conservation and restoration priorities. Issues in Ecology. Vol: 16. Pages 1-20.
Presentations Ryan, Sadie J.; Hartter, Joel. 2009. Fortresses and fragments: How political, landscape and climate change force us to think of new cross-disciplinary conservation solutions. ESA 2009 Annual Meeting. Albuquerque, NM.
Presentations Ryan, Sadie J. 2009. NDVI, forage quality and variation in reproductive patterns of African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in South Africa. International Mammal Congress, 2009. Mendoza, Argentina.
Presentations Ryan, Sadie J. 2009. The effects of contact structure, demography and movement on disease transmission within a primate metapopulation. San Francisco State University Biology Department Spring Ecology and Evolution Colloquium, 2009. San Francisco.
Presentations Ryan, Sadie J.; Hartter, Joel. 2009. The social Impacts of landscape change around a fortress park in Uganda. American Association of Geographers (AAG) Annual Meeting, 2009. Las Vegas.
Presentations Ryan, Sadie J.; Hartter, Joel. 2010. A social and ecological landscape analysis for Africa’s Albertine Rift Region. Annual Meeting of the Ecological Society of America, 2010. Pittsburgh.
Presentations Ryan, Sadie J. 2010. From politics to parasites: Assessing health in African parks landscapes. Spring Colloquium-UC Santa Barbara Department of Geography, 2010. Santa Barbara.
Presentations Ryan, Sadie J. 2010. Politics to parasites: Health in African park landscapes . Student Conference on Conservation Science-New York (SCCS-NY).
Journal Article Ryan, Sadie J. 2011. Book review: Governing Africa's Forests in a Globalized World. Natural Resources Forum. Vol: 35(2). Pages 146-147.
Journal Article Ryan, Sadie J.; Walsh, Peter D. 2011. Consequences of non-intervention for infectious disease in African Great Apes. PLoS ONE. Vol: 6(12). Pages e29030-e29030. (Online version)
Journal Article Ryan, Sadie J.; Brashares, Justin S.; Walsh, Chelsey; Milbers, Katherin; Kilroy, Cailean; Chapman, Colin A. 2012. A survey of gastrointestinal parasites of olive baboons (Papio anubis) in human settlement areas of Mole National Park, Ghana. Journal of Parasitology. Vol: 98(4). Pages 885-888. (Online version)
Data Set Ryan, Sadie J. 2012. Mosquito. (Online version)
Journal Article Ryan, Sadie J.; Cross, Paul C.; Winnie, John; Hay, Craig; Bowers, Justin; Getz, Wayne M. 2012. The utility of normalized difference vegetation index for predicting African buffalo forage quality. Journal of Wildlife Management. Vol: 76(7). Pages 1499-1508. (Online version)
Journal Article Ryan, Sadie J.; Jones, James H.; Dobson, Andrew P. 2013. Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates. PLoS ONE. Vol: 8(10). Pages e76863-e76863. (Online version)
Journal Article Stampone, Mary; Hartter, Joel; Chapman, Colin A.; Ryan, Sadie J. 2011. Trends and variability in localized precipitation around Kibale national park, Uganda, Africa. Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences. Vol: 3(1). Pages 14-23.
Journal Article Tildesley, Michael; Ryan, Sadie J. 2012. Disease prevention versus data privacy: Using landcover maps to inform spatial epidemic models. PLoS Computational Biology. Vol: 8(11). Pages e1002723-e1002723. (Online version)
Journal Article Wolf, Adam; Anderegg, William R. L.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Christensen, Jon. 2011. Robust detection of plant species distribution shifts under biased sampling regimes. Ecosphere. Vol: 2(10). Pages art 115-art115. (Online version)