NCEAS Project 12449

Towards understanding marine biological impacts of climate change

  • Anthony J. Richardson
  • Elvira Poloczanska

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group14th—18th September 2009Participant List  
Working Group18th—22nd April 2010Participant List  
Working Group14th—18th October 2010Participant List  
Working Group10th—14th May 2011Participant List  
Working Group2nd—6th October 2011Participant List  
Meeting7th—7th October 2011Participant List  
Working Group29th April—3rd May 2012Participant List  

Abstract
This Working Group will provide the globally coherent view of marine biological changes in response to climate change that is currently lacking but so desperately needed. We will bring together marine experts specializing in diverse ecosystems and robust statistical analysis to address key questions concerning the vulnerability of marine systems to climate change: 1. What are the similarities and differences between marine and terrestrial systems in terms of types and rates of responses? 2. Which marine species, taxonomic groups and systems (e.g., pelagic, benthic, rocky shore, sandy beach, coral reef) are most sensitive? 3. What are the similarities and differences in the types and rates of responses in tropical, temperate and polar seas? 4. Do multiple human stresses increase vulnerability of species and habitats to climate change? 5. Can we attribute change in marine ecosystems to climate change? To answer these key questions, we will undertake three tasks: Task 1: Database assembly – Build a marine climate impacts database employing an innovative tiered approach to classify impacts. The database will be publicly-accessible through the NCEAS data repository, enabling researchers to validate entries and upload new results. Task 2: Impacts analysis – Address the first 4 key questions above by applying robust meta-analytic techniques (e.g., Parmesan & Yohe 2003) to the marine climate impacts database. Task 3: Attribution – Employ the analytical techniques of the IPCC (2007) and Rosenzweig et al. (2008) to attribute changes in marine biological ecosystems to global warming with a high degree of certainty (key question 5).

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Presentations Brown, Christopher J.; Poloczanska, Elvira; Brander, Keith; Bruno, John F.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Kappel, Carrie V.; Moore, Pippa J.; O'Connor, Mary I.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.; Richardson, Anthony J. 2011. A global imprint of climate change on marine biological systems. The 2nd International Marine Conservation Congress, May 2011. Victoria Convention Centre. Victoria, British Columbia, Canada.
Journal Article Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.; Brander, Keith; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Moore, Pippa J.; Pandolfi, John M.; Poloczanska, Elvira; Venables, William; Richardson, Anthony J. 2011. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. Global Change Biology. Vol: 17(12). Pages 3697-3713.
Journal Article Burrows, Michael T.; Schoeman, David S.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Moore, Pippa J.; Poloczanska, Elvira; Brander, Keith; Brown, Christopher J.; Bruno, John F.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Schwing, Franklin; Sydeman, William J.; Richardson, Anthony J. 2011. The pace of shifting climate in marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Science Magazine. Vol: 334(6056). Pages 652-655. (Online version)
Journal Article Burrows, Michael T.; Schoeman, David S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Molinos, Jorge Garcia; Hoffmann, A.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Moore, Pippa J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Bruno, John F.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Sydeman, William J.; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen J.; Poloczanska, Elvira. 2014. Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity . Nature. Vol: 507. Pages 492-495.
Journal Article Parmesan, Camille; Duarte, Carlos M.; Poloczanska, Elvira; Richardson, Anthony J.; Singer, Michael. 2011. Overstretching attribution. Nature Climate Change. Vol: 1(1). Pages 2-4.
Journal Article Parmesan, Camille; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Poloczanska, Elvira; Richardson, Anthony J.; Schoeman, David S.; Singer, Michael. 2013. Beyond climate change attribution in conservation and ecological research. Ecology Letters. Vol: 16. Pages 58-71.
Journal Article Poloczanska, Elvira; Brown, Christopher J.; Sydeman, William J.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Schoeman, David S.; Moore, Pippa J.; Brander, Keith; Bruno, John F.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V.; O'Connor, Mary I.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Schwing, Franklin; Thompson, Sarah Ann; Richardson, Anthony J. 2013. Global imprint of climate change on marine life. Nature Climate Change. Vol: 3. Pages 919-925. (Online version)
Presentations Richardson, Anthony J.; Poloczanska, Elvira; Brander, Keith; Brown, Christopher J.; Bruno, John F.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Gibbons, Mark; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Kappel, Carrie V.; Moore, Pippa J.; O'Connor, Mary I.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Sanchez-Camacho, Maria; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J. 2010. Marine climate change impacts: Out of sight but not out of mind. 2010 International Climate Change Adaptation Conference. Gold Coast, Australia.
Journal Article Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith; Bruno, John F.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Burrows, Michael T.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Holding, Johnna; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Moore, Pippa J.; O'Connor, Mary I.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Schoeman, David S.; Schwing, Franklin; Sydeman, William J.; Poloczanska, Elvira. 2012. Climate change and marine life. Biology Letters. (Online version)