Towards understanding marine biological impacts of climate change

• Anthony J. Richardson
• Elvira Poloczanska

Abstract
This Working Group will provide the globally coherent view of marine biological changes in response to climate change that is currently lacking but so desperately needed. We will bring together marine experts specializing in diverse ecosystems and robust statistical analysis to address key questions concerning the vulnerability of marine systems to climate change: 1. What are the similarities and differences between marine and terrestrial systems in terms of types and rates of responses? 2. Which marine species, taxonomic groups and systems (e.g., pelagic, benthic, rocky shore, sandy beach, coral reef) are most sensitive? 3. What are the similarities and differences in the types and rates of responses in tropical, temperate and polar seas? 4. Do multiple human stresses increase vulnerability of species and habitats to climate change? 5. Can we attribute change in marine ecosystems to climate change? To answer these key questions, we will undertake three tasks: Task 1: Database assembly – Build a marine climate impacts database employing an innovative tiered approach to classify impacts. The database will be publicly-accessible through the NCEAS data repository, enabling researchers to validate entries and upload new results. Task 2: Impacts analysis – Address the first 4 key questions above by applying robust meta-analytic techniques (e.g., Parmesan & Yohe 2003) to the marine climate impacts database. Task 3: Attribution – Employ the analytical techniques of the IPCC (2007) and Rosenzweig et al. (2008) to attribute changes in marine biological ecosystems to global warming with a high degree of certainty (key question 5).