NCEAS Project 12559

Red flags and species endangerment: Meta-analytical development of criteria for assessing extinction risk

  • Robin Waples
  • Jeffrey A. Hutchings

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group28th September—1st October 2010Participant List  
Working Group21st—24th March 2011Participant List  
Working Group16th—19th January 2012Participant List  
Working Group29th—31st January 2013Participant List  

The proposed project builds on previous work (some of it sponsored by NCEAS) to evaluate performance of criteria for identifying species at risk. Novel aspects of our approach include the following: 1) We begin with a conceptual definition of an endangered species (one that has entered a Red Zone where both extinction risk and uncertainty about biological processes increase non-linearly); 2) We will leverage large datasets that have become available over the last decade, including those for taxa (e.g., marine fishes) for which application of standard risk criteria has been very controversial; 3) We propose a rather broad interpretation of depensation and Allee effects that facilitates consideration of the importance of ecological and evolutionary processes; 4) We will explicitly consider how risks scale on the continuum populations/metapopulations/ESUs/species; 5) We will evaluate practical utility of candidate RedFlag criteria by applying them to case studies of species that have been formally considered for federal protection in the US and Canada.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Dissertation or Thesis d'Eon-Eggertson, Faye. 2012. Resource and Environmental Management, graduate student thesis for Faye d’Eon Eggertson, Supervised by Professors R Peterman and NK Dulvy, Simon Fraser University.
Presentations Dulvy, Nick. 2012. What is the global status of fisheries? Let's ask the sharks. University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre Seminar Series, December 2012.
Journal Article Greenwald, Noah; Ando, Amy W.; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Tschirhart, John. 2014. Comment on the Endangered Species Act at 40. Nature. Vol: 504. Pages 369-370.
Journal Article Hutchings, Jeffrey A.; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Collen, Ben; Schwartz, Michael K.; Waples, Robin. 2012. Red flags: Correlates of impaired species recovery. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. Vol: 27(10). Pages 542-546. (Online version)
Journal Article Shelton, Andrew O.; Munch, Stephan B.; Keith, David A.; Mangel, Marc. 2012. Maternal age, fecundity, egg quality, and recruitment: Linking stock structure to recruitment using an age-structured Ricker model. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 69. Pages 1631-1641. (Online version)
Journal Article Waples, Robin; Nammack, Marta; Cochrane, Jean F.; Hutchings, Jeffrey A. 2013. A tale of two acts: Endangered species listing practices in Canada and the United States. BioScience. Vol: 63(9). Pages 723-734. (Online version)
Journal Article Ward, Eric J.; Holmes, Elizabeth E.; Thorson, James T.; Collen, Ben. 2014. Complexity is costly: a meta-analysis of parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting. Oikos. Vol: 123(6). Pages 652-661.
Journal Article Ward, Eric J.; Holmes, Elizabeth E.; Thorson, James T.; Collen, Ben. in press. Complexity is costly: comparing parametric and nonparametric methods for short-term population forecasting. (Abstract)
Journal Article Ward, Eric J.; Holmes, Elizabeth E.; Thorson, James T.; Collen, Ben. In press. Comparison of parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term forecasting of population data.