Red flags and species endangerment: Meta-analytical development of criteria for assessing extinction risk

• Robin Waples
• Jeffrey A. Hutchings

Abstract
The proposed project builds on previous work (some of it sponsored by NCEAS) to evaluate performance of criteria for identifying species at risk. Novel aspects of our approach include the following: 1) We begin with a conceptual definition of an endangered species (one that has entered a Red Zone where both extinction risk and uncertainty about biological processes increase non-linearly); 2) We will leverage large datasets that have become available over the last decade, including those for taxa (e.g., marine fishes) for which application of standard risk criteria has been very controversial; 3) We propose a rather broad interpretation of depensation and Allee effects that facilitates consideration of the importance of ecological and evolutionary processes; 4) We will explicitly consider how risks scale on the continuum populations/metapopulations/ESUs/species; 5) We will evaluate practical utility of candidate RedFlag criteria by applying them to case studies of species that have been formally considered for federal protection in the US and Canada.