NCEAS Project 12574

Forecasting phenology: Integrating ecology, climatology, and phylogeny to understand plant responses to climate change

  • Benjamin I. Cook
  • Elizabeth M. Wolkovich

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group24th—28th May 2010Participant List  
Working Group7th—12th December 2010Participant List  
Working Group2nd—6th May 2011Participant List  
Working Group29th November—2nd December 2011Participant List  
Working Group11th—15th December 2012Participant List  

Abstract
The magnitude and direction of plant species responses to climate change has widespread consequences for trophic interactions, ecosystem services, and our ability to predict the shape of future communities. To date, however, research has focused primarily on documenting species responses without developing a detailed understanding of why some species and communities vary with climate and others do not. Combining expertise from ecologists, phylogeneticists, and climatologists, we will use extensive plant phenology data from experimental and observational studies across North America and Europe to conduct a metaanalysis and develop robust predictors of plant phenology responses and sensitivities to climate change. Our resulting database of phenological studies, their related climate variables, and phylogenetic trees will be, we believe, the most comprehensive data available to study the relationship between climate change and plant species phenological responses. Our comparison of experiments to observational studies will test whether short-term, small-scale manipulations of climate can predict the long-term trends seen on global scales, and should improve the design of future climate manipulation experiments. Additionally, our work will develop new approaches for the use of climate metrics in ecology and inform the designs of government data inventories and citizen science projects.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Ault, Toby R.; Macalady, Alison K.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Schwartz, Mark D. 2011. Northern Hemisphere modes of variability and the timing of spring in western North America. Journal of Climate. Vol: 24(15). Pages 4003-4014. (Online version)
Journal Article Cleland, Elsa E.; Allen, Jenica M.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Dunne, Jennifer A.; Pau, Stephanie; Travers, Steven E.; Zavaleta, Erika; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. 2012. Phenological tracking enables positive species responses to climate change. Ecology. Vol: 93. Pages 1765-1771. (Online version)
Journal Article Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Parmesan, Camille. 2012. Divergent responses to spring and winter warming drive community level flowering trends. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol: 109(23). Pages 9000-9005. (Online version)
Journal Article Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Allen, Jenica M.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Cleland, Elsa E.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Lancaster, Lesley; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian; Parmesan, Camille; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, Jim; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Travers, Steven E. 2012. Sensitivity of spring phenology to warming across temporal and spatial climate gradients in two independent databases.. Ecosystems. Vol: 15(8). Pages 1283-1294. (Online version)
Journal Article Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Salamin, Nicolas; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. 2012. Incompletely resolved phylogenetic trees inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism. Ecology. Vol: 93(2). Pages 242-247. (Online version)
Journal Article Davies, T. Jonathan; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Salamin, Nicolas; Allen, Jenica M.; Ault, Toby R.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Cleland, Elsa E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, Jim; Schwartz, Mark D.; Travers, Steven E. 2013. Phylogenetic conservatism in plant phenology. Journal of Ecology. Vol: 101(6). Pages 1520-1530. (Online version)
Journal Article Mazer, Susan J.; Travers, Steven E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Bolmgren, Kjell; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Salamin, Nicolas; Inouye, David W. 2013. Flowering date of taxonomic families predicts phenological sensitivity to temperature: Implications for forecasting the effects of climate change on unstudied taxa. American Journal of Botany. Vol: 100. Pages 1381-1397. (Online version)
Journal Article McCabe, Gregory J.; Ault, Toby R.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Schwartz, Mark D. 2012. Influences of the El Nino southern oscillation and the pacific decadal oscillation on the timing of the North American spring. International Journal of Climatology. Vol: 32(15). (Online version)
Journal Article Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E. 2011. Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science. Global Change Biology. Vol: 17(12). Pages 3633-3643. (Online version)
Journal Article Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Nytch, Christopher J.; Regetz, Jim; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Wright, S. Joseph. 2013. Clouds and temperature drive dynamic changes in tropical flower production. Nature Climate Change. (Online version)
Data Set Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. 2011. Phenology literature review. (Online version)
Data Set Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. 2012. Network of ecological and climatological timings across regions (NECTAR). (Online version)
Data Set Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. 2012. STONE: Synthesis of timings observed in increase experiments. (Online version)
Journal Article Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Allen, Jenica M.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Travers, Steven E.; Pau, Stephanie; Regetz, Jim; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Ault, Toby R.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Mazer, Susan J.; McCabe, Gregory J.; McGill, Brian; Parmesan, Camille; Salamin, Nicolas; Schwartz, Mark D.; Cleland, Elsa E. 2012. Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change. Nature. Vol: 485. Pages 494-497. (Online version)
Data Set Wolkovich, Elizabeth M. unknown. Mikesell phenological data from Wauseon, Ohio, USA 1883-1912. (Online version)