Tropical coral reefs of the future: Modeling ecological outcomes from the analyses of current and historical trends

• Peter J. Edmunds
• Ruth D. Gates

Abstract
Climate change and local impacts are driving unprecedented global declines in the integrity of marine ecosystems. Although reefs generally exemplify this biome degradation, some reefs and individuals corals on reefs appear surprisingly resistant or resilient to environmental disturbances. This suggests that they are better adapted, or possess community and/or organismic attributes that make them less vulnerable or better equipped to recover. We propose to synthesize data from long-term coral monitoring projects and the primary literature to identify biological attributes and physical conditions that associate with environmental resistance and resilience in coral species and reef communities. Further, we propose to use this information to feed a population and community level model aimed at projecting coral reef community structure for a Caribbean and a Pacific reef 200 years into the future.