NCEAS Project 12595

Tropical coral reefs of the future: Modeling ecological outcomes from the analyses of current and historical trends

  • Peter J. Edmunds
  • Ruth D. Gates

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group21st—26th February 2011Participant List  
Working Group6th—9th July 2011Participant List  
Working Group29th—31st August 2012Participant List  

Climate change and local impacts are driving unprecedented global declines in the integrity of marine ecosystems. Although reefs generally exemplify this biome degradation, some reefs and individuals corals on reefs appear surprisingly resistant or resilient to environmental disturbances. This suggests that they are better adapted, or possess community and/or organismic attributes that make them less vulnerable or better equipped to recover. We propose to synthesize data from long-term coral monitoring projects and the primary literature to identify biological attributes and physical conditions that associate with environmental resistance and resilience in coral species and reef communities. Further, we propose to use this information to feed a population and community level model aimed at projecting coral reef community structure for a Caribbean and a Pacific reef 200 years into the future.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Edmunds, Peter J.; Baskett, Marissa L.; Bramanti, Lorenzo; Burgess, Scott; Fabina, Nicholas S.; Han, Xueying; Lesser, Michael; Putnam, Hollie M.; Wall, Chris; Yost, Denise; Gates, Ruth D. unknown. Evaluating the causal basis of ecological success within the Scleractinia. Oecologia.
Journal Article Edmunds, Peter J.; Adjeroud, Mehdi; Baskett, Marissa L.; Baums, Iliana B.; Budd, Ann F.; Carpenter, Robert; Fabina, Nicholas S.; Fan, Tung- Yung; Franklin, Erik; Gross, Kevin; Han, Xueying; Jacobson, Lianne; Klaus, James S.; McClanahan, Timothy R.; O'Leary, Jennifer K.; van Oppen, Madeleine J.H.; Pochon, Xavier; Putnam, Hollie M.; Smith, Tyler B.; Stat, Michael; Sweatman, H.; van Woesik, Robert; Gates, Ruth D. unknown. Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past and future climates. PLoS ONE.
Journal Article Fabina, Nicholas S.; Putnam, Hollie M.; Franklin, Erik; Stat, Michael; Gates, Ruth D. 2012. Transmission mode predicts specificity and interaction patterns in coral-symbiodinium networks. PLoS ONE. Vol: 7. Pages e44970-e44970. (Online version)
Journal Article Franklin, Erik; Stat, Michael; Pochon, Xavier; Putnam, Hollie M.; Gates, Ruth D. 2011. GeoSymbio: A hybrid, cloud-based web application of global geospatial bioinformatics and ecoinformatics for Symbiodinium-host symbioses. Molecular Ecology Resources. Vol: 12(2). Pages 369-373. (Online version)
Data Set Franklin, Erik. 2011. GeoSymbio: Symbiodinium-host symbioses. (Online version)
Data Set Franklin, Erik. 2011. GeoSymbio: Symbiodinium-host symbioses. (Online version)
Data Set Han, Xueying. 2011. Expert opinion on coral tolerance, recovery, and resilience. (Online version)
Data Set Han, Xueying. 2011. Long term coral cover changes from six sites around the world. (Online version)
Journal Article Smith, Tyler B.; Brandt, Marilyn E.; Calnan, J. M.; Nemeth, Richard S.; Blondeau, J.; Kadison, E.; Taylor, M.; Rothenberger, P. 2013. Convergent mortality responses of Caribbean coral species to seawater warming. Ecosphere. Vol: 4(7). Pages 1-40. (Online version)
Journal Article van Woesik, Robert; Franklin, Erik; O'Leary, Jennifer K.; McClanahan, Timothy R.; Klaus, James S.; Budd, Ann F. 2012. Hosts of the Plio-Pleistocene past reflect modern-day coral vulnerability. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 279(1737). Pages 2448-2456. (Online version)