NCEAS Project 12622

Climate change and invasive species: Are non-natives poised for greater success in future climatic conditions?

  • Cascade Sorte
  • Jeffrey S. Dukes
  • Joshua J. Lawler

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group24th—28th January 2011Participant List  
Working Group21st—25th May 2011Participant List  
Working Group10th—14th October 2011Participant List  
Working Group21st—24th February 2012Participant List  

Abstract
Climate change and biological invasions are two of the primary causes of biodiversity loss, and it has been hypothesized that these factors may operate synergistically in the future. We propose a working group composed of experimentalists and modelers whose objective will be to quantitatively evaluate the interaction between climate change and species invasions. First, we will conduct the first cross-ecosystem meta-analysis of non-native and native species’ physiological tolerances and impacts of changing climatic conditions on demographic rates. Our goal will be to address whether non-natives are poised for greater success in future climate conditions. Second, using information on current ranges and on physiological tolerances, we will construct a combination of bioclimatic envelope models and mechanistic distribution models to compare changes in range sizes for non-native and native species. Such integration between modeling techniques has rarely been attempted, despite it being one of the most promising methods for advancing our understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change. Finally, we will further integrate our meta-analysis and modeling results to address the relative change in invasion impacts for target species, with the goal of improving recommendations for conservation and management. The uncommon breadth and depth of our study will yield robust insights into how the spread and impact of invasive species will be altered by climate change. Specific results will inform estimates of the species- and location-specific risks of invasions, which will support invasive species management decisions. Our working group is uniquely poised to make progress toward forecasting the effects of climate change on species invasions because our participants have access to a large quantity of high-quality data and bring the theoretical and empirical expertise needed for the task.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Bradley, Bethany A.; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Early, Regan I.; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Miller, Luke P.; Sorte, Cascade; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Diez, Jeffrey M.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Ibañez, Inés; Olden, Julian D. 2011. Global change, global trade, and the next wave of plant invasions. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. Vol: 10(1). Pages 20-28. (Online version)
Data Set Bradley, Bethany A. 2012. Global change, global trade, and the next wave of plant invasions: Data. (Online version)
Journal Article Diez, Jeffrey M.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Olden, Julian D.; Sorte, Cascade; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Early, Regan I.; Ibañez, Inés; Jones, Sierra J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Miller, Luke P. 2012. Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions? . Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. Vol: 10(5). Pages 249-257.
Journal Article Ibañez, Inés; Diez, Jeffrey M.; Miller, Luke P.; Olden, Julian D.; Sorte, Cascade; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Bradley, Bethany A.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Early, Regan I.; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Lawler, Joshua J. In press. Integrated assessment of biological invasions. Ecological Applications. Pages 1-38. (Online version)
Journal Article Sorte, Cascade; Ibañez, Inés; Blumenthal, Dana M.; Molinari, Nicole; Miller, Luke P.; Grosholz, Edwin D.; Diez, Jeffrey M.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Olden, Julian D.; Jones, Sierra J.; Dukes, Jeffrey S. 2013. Poised to prosper? A cross-system comparison of climate change effects on native and non-native species performance. Ecology Letters. Vol: 16(2). Pages 261-270. (Online version)