NCEAS Project 2025

Predicting extinction: The dynamics of salmon populations at low densities

  • Ray Hilborn

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group16th—18th July 1997Participant List  
Working Group13th—15th April 1998Participant List  

We propose to combine meta-analysis, the analysis of a large number of data sets to determine the probability of different population parameters, with Bayesian risk analysis to provide a methodology for making predictions about extinction and other risks of low density populations. A NCEAS working group would meet twice to apply these methods to a case study of coho salmon in California and Oregon using existing meta-analytic data sets, and to explore the potential for developing similar data sets for other taxonomic groups.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Barrowman, Nicolas J.; Myers, Ransom A.; Hilborn, Ray; Field, Chris A. 2003. The variability among populations of coho salmon in the maximum reproductive rate and depensation. Ecological Applications. Vol: 13(3). Pages 784-793.
Journal Article Bradford, Mike; Myers, Ransom A.; Irvine, J. R. 2000. Reference points for coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) harvest rates and escapement goals based on freshwater production. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 57. Pages 677-686.
Report or White Paper Hilborn, Ray. 1998. Report of the first working group on Predicting Extinction. (Online version)
Data Set Hilborn, Ray. 2007. Coho salmon. (Abstract) (Online version)
Data Set Myers, Ransom A. 2007. Coho salmon online data from Myers' stock recruitment database. (Abstract) (Online version)