NCEAS Project 2146

Recruitment variability and populations dynamics

  • Ottar N. Bjornstad


ActivityDatesFurther Information
Postdoctoral Fellow15th September 1998—31st December 2000Participant List  

Abstract
Variability in the recruitment into populations is a key parameter in population ecology. It is a critical determinant of extinction risks, population viability and population regulation. I propose to study recruitment variability and its consequences on population dynamics from a combined empirical and theoretical perspective. In the project I will (1) bring together stochastic and density-dependent theories of populations dynamics, (2) develop statistical methodology dedicated to the study of abundance data, (3) estimate the magnitude of recruitment variability through time series analysis, and (4) quantify the effects of variability on population dynamics through stochastic simulation. I focus on regulation in populations that are governed by age- or stage-structured interactions. That is because many economically important populations that exhibit recruitment variability (such as fishery stocks) are governed by structured interactions. The dynamic effect of the variability will vary greatly depending on the relative and absolute strengths of the intra- and inter-stage interactions. In accomplishing the 4 objectives I will increase our understanding of the interaction between density-dependent and density-independent forces. I will quantify the importance of stochastic events in shaping the dynamics of real populations, and improve on the analytical tools to deal with recruitment variability. The proposal is for a two-year postdoctoral position to start in September 1998.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Presentations Bjornstad, Ottar N. 1998. Population dynamics and recurrent epidemics of the measles. University of California, Santa Barbara. Santa Barbara, CA.
Presentations Bjornstad, Ottar N. 1998. Stochastic population dynamics and time series analysis of abundance: Two case studies. University of Princeton. Princeton, New Jersey.
Journal Article Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Fromentin, J.; Stenseth, Nils; Gjosaeter, J. 1999. A new test for density-dependent survival: The case of coastal cod populations. Ecology. Vol: 80. Pages 1278-1288.
Journal Article Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Fromentin, J.; Stenseth, Nils; Gjosaeter, J. 1999. Cycles and trends in cod populations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol: 96. Pages 5066-5071.
Presentations Bjornstad, Ottar N. 1999. Dynamics of measles: Disease persistence and outbreaks. Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Atlanta, GA.
Presentations Bjornstad, Ottar N. 1999. Persistence and outbreaks in viral diseases: Endemic and epidemic dynamics of measles. School of Fisheries, University of Washington. Seattle, WA.
Report or White Paper Bjornstad, Ottar N. 1999. Recruitment variability and populations dynamics. (Online version)
Journal Article Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Ims, R. A.; Lambin, X. 1999. Spatial population dynamics: Analyzing patterns and processes of population synchrony. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. Vol: 14. Pages 427-432.
Presentations Bjornstad, Ottar N. 1999. Stochastic population dynamics and time series analysis of abundance: Two case studies. Department of Statistics, University of California Santa Barbara. Santa Barbara, CA.
Journal Article Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Stenseth, Nils; Saitoh, T. 1999. Synchrony and scaling in dynamics of voles and mice in northern Japan. Ecology. Vol: 80. Pages 622-637.
Journal Article Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Bolker, Benjamin. 2000. Canonical functions for dispersal-induced synchrony. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 267. Pages 1787-1794.
Journal Article Bjornstad, Ottar N. 2000. Cycles and synchrony: Two historical 'experiments' and one experience. Journal of Animal Ecology. Vol: 69. Pages 869-873.
Report or White Paper Bjornstad, Ottar N. 2000. Postdoctoral Fellow Report. (Online version)
Journal Article Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Falck, W. 2001. Nonparametric spatial covariance functions: Estimation and testing. Environmental and Ecological Statistics. Vol: 8. Pages 53-70.
Journal Article Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Sait, S. M.; Stenseth, Nils; Thompson, David J.; Begon, M. 2001. The impact of specialized enemies on the dimensionality of host dynamics. Nature. Vol: 409. Pages 1001-1006.
Journal Article Fromentin, J.; Gjosaeter, J.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Stenseth, Nils. 2000. Biological processes and environmental factors regulating the dynamics of the Norwegian Skagerrak Cod populations since 1919. ICES Journal of Marine Science. Vol: 57. Pages 330-338. (Abstract)
Journal Article Fromentin, J.; Myers, Ransom A.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Stenseth, Nils; Gjosaeter, J.; Christie, H. 2001. Effects of density-dependent and stochastic processes on the regulation of cod populations. Ecology. Vol: 82(2). Pages 567-579.
Journal Article Grenfell, Bryan T.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Kappey, J. 2001. Traveling waves and spatial hierarchies in measles epidemics. Nature. Vol: 414. Pages 716-723.
Journal Article Kaneko, Y.; Nakata, K.; Saitoh, T.; Bjornstad, Ottar N. 1998. The biology of the vole Clethrionomys rufocanus: A review. Researches on Population Ecology. Vol: 40. Pages 21-37.
Journal Article Kendall, Bruce E.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Bascompte, Jordi; Keitt, Timothy H.; Fagan, William F. 2000. Dispersal, environmental correlation, and spatial synchrony in population dynamics. American Naturalist. Vol: 155. Pages 628-636.
Journal Article Saitoh, T.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Stenseth, Nils. 1999. Density dependence in voles and mice: A comparative analysis. Ecology. Vol: 80. Pages 638-650.
Journal Article Stenseth, Nils; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Falck, W.; Fromentin, J.; Gjosaeter, J.; Gray, John S. 1999. Dynamics of coastal cod populations: Intra- and intercohort density dependence and stochastic processes. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 266(1429). Pages 1645-1654. (Abstract)