NCEAS Project 2199

Spatial ecology of infectious disease

  • Leslie A. Real
  • Andrew P. Dobson

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Graduate Student1st September 1999—31st August 2001Participant List  
Working Group7th—11th February 2000Participant List  
Working Group11th—14th October 2000Participant List  
Postdoctoral Fellow5th December 2000—4th December 2001Participant List  
Working Group22nd—27th October 2001Participant List  
Working Group25th—29th March 2002Participant List  

Members Only Area

Abstract
The ecology of infectious diseases is receiving increased attention from both public health officials and traditional population biologists. It is clear that the ability to predict and forecast disease outbreaks will require a greater understanding of spatial dynamics and the analysis of spatial patterns of spread. The goal of this Working Group is to analyze large spatial data sets of disease occurrence and spread drawn from natural, agricultural, and public health databases. By comparing the spatial ecology of disease across these different systems we hope to arrive at some basic generalizations about spatially-dependent disease dynamics.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Childs, James E.; Curns, A.; Dey, M.; Real, Leslie A.; Feinstein, L.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Krebs, J. W. 2000. Predicting the local dynamics of epizootic rabies among raccoons in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol: 97. Pages 13666-13671.
Journal Article Childs, James E.; Curns, A.; Dey, M.; Real, Leslie A.; Rupprecht, Charles; Krebs, J. W. 2001. Rabies epizootics among raccoons vary along a north-south gradient in the eastern United States. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. Vol: 1. Pages 253-267.
Journal Article Goodwin, Brett; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Schauber, Eric M. 2001. Spatiotemporal variation in a Lyme disease host and vector: Black-legged ticks on white-footed mice. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. Vol: 1(2). Pages 129-138.
Journal Article Gordon, E. R.; Curns, A.; Krebs, J. W.; Rupprecht, Charles; Real, Leslie A.; Childs, James E. 2004. Temporal dynamics of rabies in a wildlife host and the risk of cross-species transmission. Epidemiology and Infection. Vol: 132. Pages 515-524.
Journal Article Lucey, Brendan; Smith, David L.; Russell, Colin; Wilson, Mark L.; Long, A.; Waller, Lance; Childs, James E.; Real, Leslie A. 2002. Spatiotemporal analysis of epizootic raccoon rabies propagation in Connecticut, 1991-1995. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. Vol: 2. Pages 77-86.
Journal Article Russell, Colin; Smith, David L.; Waller, Lance; Childs, James E.; Real, Leslie A. 2004. A priori prediction of disease invasion dynamics in a novel environment. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 271(1534). Pages 21-25. (Online version)
Journal Article Smith, David L.; Lucey, Brendan; Waller, Lance; Childs, James E.; Real, Leslie A. 2002. Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol: 99. Pages 3668-3672.
Journal Article Waller, Lance; Smith, David L.; Childs, James E.; Real, Leslie A. 2003. Monte Carlo assessments of goodness-of-fit for ecological simulation models. Ecological Modelling. Vol: 164. Pages 49-63.