NCEAS Project 2294

Scenarios of future biodiversity: Causes, patterns and consequences

  • F. Stuart Chapin
  • Osvaldo E. Sala

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Workshop2nd—5th June 1996Participant List  

Members Only Area

The workshop will consist of a 4-day meeting in which we discuss and refine scenarios of biodiversity change that have been prepared in advance by each participant. Each participant will be supplied with summaries of currently published IPCC scenarios of changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and land use for the next century. These scenarios include best-case, worst-case, and business-as-usual scenarios. We will also supply maps of natural vegetation composition under current climate and vegetation that is projected to be in equilibrium with a 2X CO2 world. This information will be sent to participants in late March prior to the meeting. We assume that there will be active discussion at the meeting about pitfalls and insights into how these scenarios can be made as credible as possible. We will ask each person to provide a written chapter by September following the meeting.

There will be two major sections to the workshop and the final product: (1) a summary of the major drivers of changes in biodiversity and (2) a biome-by-biome analysis of the probable changes in biodiversity and their consequences for ecosystem functioning. In dealing with consequences we will encourage participants to consider both ecological consequences for functioning of natural communities and economic and social consequences for human society. Detailed outlines of each chapter must be available to exchange among participants at the meeting. Final chapters must be completed by 1 October 1996.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Book Alcamo, J.; Leemans, Rik; Kreileman, E. 1998. Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century: Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model. Elsevier. Oxford.
Report or White Paper Chapin, F. Stuart. 1996. Biodiversity Scenarios workshop status report. (Online version)
Book Chapin, F. Stuart; Sala, Osvaldo E.; Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth. 2001. Global Biodiversity in a Changing Environment: Scenarios for the 21st Century. Springer-Verlag. New York.
Book Chapter Cramer, Wolfgang; Leemans, Rik; Schulze, E. D.; Bondeau, Alberte; Scholes, Robert J. 1998. Data needs and limitations for broad-scale ecosystem modelling. Edited by Walker, B.; Steffen, W. L.; Canadell, J.; Ingram, J.. The Terrestrial Biosphere and Global Change: Implications for Natural and Managed Ecosystems. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge. Pages 88-105.
Book Chapter Dirzo, Rodolfo. In press. Tropical forests: Biodiversity, ecological processes and global environmental change. Edited by Chapin, F.; Sala, O.. Future Scenarios of Climate Change. Elsevier.
Book Chapter Leemans, Rik. 1997. Effects of global change on agricultural land use: Scaling up from physiological processes to ecosystem dynamics. Edited by Jackson, L.. Ecology in Agriculture. Academic Press. San Diego, CA. Pages 415-452.
Book Chapter Lodge, David M. In press. Responses of lake biodiversity to global changes. Edited by Sala, O. E.; Chapin, F. S.. Future Scenarios of Global Change. Elsevier.
Presentations Sala, Osvaldo E. 1998. Biodiversity scenarios. The Earth's Changing Land: GCTE-LUCC Open Science Conference on Global Change. Barcelona, Spain.
Book Chapter Sala, Osvaldo E.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Gardner, Robert H.; Lauenroth, William; Mooney, Harold A.; Ramakrishnan, P. S. 1998. Global change, biodiversity and ecological complexity. Edited by Walker, B. H.; Steffen, W. L.; Canadell, J.; Ingram, J. S. I.. The Terrestrial Biosphere and Global Change: Implications for Natural and Managed Ecosystems. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge. Pages 304-328.
Journal Article Sala, Osvaldo E.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Armesto, Juan; Berlow, Eric L.; Bloomfield, Janine; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth; Huenneke, Laura F.; Jackson, Robert B.; Kinzig, Ann P.; Leemans, Rik; Lodge, David M.; Mooney, Harold A.; Oesterheld, Martin; Poff, N. LeRoy; Sykes, Martin; Walker, Brian; Walker, Marilyn D.; Wall, Diana H. 2000. Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science. Vol: 287. Pages 1770-1774.
Journal Article Walker, Brian; Steffen, Will. 1997. An overview of the implications of global change for natural and managed terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation Ecology (Online). Vol: 1(2). (Online version)
Report or White Paper Walker, Brian; Steffen, Will. 1997. A synthesis of GCTE and related research. Executive Summary. IGBP Secretariat.
Book Walker, Brian; Steffen, Will; Canadell, Josep G.; Ingram, John. 1998. The terrestrial biosphere and global change: Implications for natural and managed ecosystems. A Synthesis of GCTE and related research. Cambridge University Press. London.
Book Chapter Wall, Diana H.; Adams, G.; Parsons, A. N. 2001. Soil biodiversity. Edited by Chapin, F. S.; Sala, O. E.. Global Biodiversity in a Changing Environment: Scenarios for the 21st Century. Springer.