NCEAS Project 3101

Global change impacts on landscape fires

  • Michael Flannigan
  • Sandra Lavorel

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group30th October—3rd November 2000Participant List  
Working Group12th—16th November 2001Participant List  
Working Group30th January—2nd February 2003Participant List  
Working Group19th—23rd January 2004Participant List  

Abstract
A major problem in projecting ecological change and understanding its mechanisms is the lack of non-equilibrium dynamics in ecological models. The inclusion of disturbance, especially fire is essential for dynamic vegetation models to simulate transient changes in vegetation composition and structure. Understanding landscape dynamics in relation to fire, and how these dynamics may be altered by climate and land use changes is a priority. The development of fire-vegetation models at landscape scales is a crucial gap in land management. Additionally, understanding human impacts on the fire regime is critical for projecting vegetation change in human-modified landscapes, which now occupy large proportions of the globe. The objective of this working group is to use the current well-developed understanding of fire behavior/fire ecology and fire-weather to develop a set of dynamic fire-climate-vegetation models that simulate fire effects at temporal and spatial scales relevant to vegetation change. We will use a common modelling environment, LAMOS, to conduct this research. LAMOS (a LAndscape Modelling Shell) is an interactive and flexible landscape modelling platform designed to include alternative methods for simulating vegetation response to landscape change. This proposal specifically addresses three questions: 1) How well do different landscape fire models reproduce fire statistics under current climate, both with respect to each other and with respect to fire history records at selected sites, 2) At what spatial and temporal scales does landscape pattern influence the fire regime, and 3) Under which weather conditions are fire patterns sensitive to fuel landscape pattern, and how often under present / future climate is the threshold of sensitivity crossed.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Presentations Cary, Geoff; Keane, Robert; Gardner, Robert H.; Lavorel, Sandra; Flannigan, Michael; Davies, Ian; Li, Chao; Lenihan, Jim; Rupp, Scott; Mouillot, Florent. 2003. Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather. World Congress, 13-17 July 2003. International Association of Landscape Ecology. Darwin, Australia.
Journal Article Cary, Geoff; Keane, Robert; Gardner, Robert H.; Lavorel, Sandra; Flannigan, Michael; Davies, Ian; Li, Chao; Lenihan, Jim; Rupp, Scott; Mouillot, Florent. 2006. Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather. Landscape Ecology. Vol: 21. Pages 121-137.
Presentations Flannigan, Michael. 2001. Climate change, forest fires and carbon in northern forests. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, 10 December 2001. San Francisco, CA.
Presentations Flannigan, Michael. 2002. Climate change and fire: Where we are going. 4th Annual International Forest Fire Research Conference. Luso, Portugal.
Data Set Gollberg, Greg. 2008. FRAME Fire Research and Management Exchange System. (Online version)
Presentations Keane, Robert; Cary, Geoff; Davies, Ian; Flannigan, Michael; Gardner, Robert H.; Lavorel, Sandra; Lenihan, Jim; Li, Chao; Rupp, Scott. 2003. A classification of landscape fire succession models. World Congress, 13-17 July 2003. International Association of Landscape Ecology. Darwin, Australia.
Journal Article Keane, Robert; Cary, Geoff; Parsons, Russell. 2003. Using simulation to map fire regimes: An evaluation of approaches, strategies, and limitations. International Journal of Wildland Fire. Vol: 12(4). Pages 309-322.
Journal Article Keane, Robert; Cary, Geoff; Davies, Ian; Flannigan, Michael; Gardner, Robert H.; Lavorel, Sandra; Lenihan, Jim; Li, Chao; Rupp, Scott. 2004. A classification of landscape fire succession models: Spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling. Vol: 179. Pages 3-27.
Book Chapter Keane, Robert; Cary, Geoff; Davies, Ian; Flannigan, Michael; Gardner, Robert H.; Lavorel, Sandra; Lenihan, Jim. 2007. Understanding global fire dynamics by classifying and comparing spatial models of vegetation dynamics. Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World. Springer Berlin Heidelberg. Pages 139-148.
Journal Article Keane, Robert; Cary, Geoff; Flannigan, Michael; Parsons, Russell; Davies, Ian; King, Karen J.; Li, Chao; Bradstock, Ross A.; Gill, Malcolm. 2013. Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling. Ecological Modelling. Vol: 266. Pages 172-186.