Macro-ecology and biogeography: Hierarchical (Bayesian) model development using data from South Africa

• John Silander
• Richard M. Cowling
• Alan E. Gelfand
• Anthony G. Rebelo

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Abstract
We propose a Working Group that will focus on developing hierarchical (Bayesian) statistical models to explain joint spatial patterns in plant species distributions (and thus diversity), using unique datasets from South Africa. The statistical models will: be individual species-based, be spatially explicit, utilize individual species attributes (including phylogenetic information), and include various explicit sources of environmental heterogeneity. The models will be hierarchical in attempting to explain joint patterns of species distributions, thus getting at diversity directly from a mechanistic perspective. We know of no other studies which have taken this approach. In building, validating and comparing the models, we have access to unique data sets from South Africa: 1) the Protea Atlas species inventory; 2) A set of explanatory GIS data layers for the Cape Floristic Region (CFR); 3) cladistic/phylogenetic data on taxa in the Proteaceae; 4) a database of up to 4000 releves from the CFR; and 5) potentially, access to a database of the distribution (at ¿ degree grid cells) of all 23,000 flowering plant species in Southern Africa. The CFR is one of the world's hottest hotspots of plant diversity, and the Protea Atlas dataset may be the most complete presence-absence data set for any taxonomic group across any region.