NCEAS Project 4160

Models of alternative management policies for marine ecosystems

  • Robert C. Francis
  • James F. Kitchell

Public web area for group

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group13th—15th December 2001Participant List  
Graduate Student1st January—31st March 2002Participant List  
Working Group17th—20th March 2002Participant List  
Working Group9th—13th December 2002Participant List  
Working Group24th—28th August 2003Participant List  
Working Group7th—10th December 2004Participant List  
Working Group21st—23rd March 2005Participant List  

Members Only Area

Abstract
We are employing comparative approaches based on a common modeling framework developed for each of five large marine ecosystems in the North Pacific Ocean. Each of these ecosystems has served as the focus of controversy over the ecological consequences of fishery management practices, protection for threatened or endangered species, and the relative importance of large-scale environmental variability. Each of these ecosystems has been the focus of model development effort using the common framework of an Ecopath/Ecosim approach. We are using these five models as the basis for evaluating policy effects on ecosystem structure, clarifying the tradeoffs in fishery and conservation goals, and designing robust management strategies. We have also created novel ways of visualizing complex ecosystem models, as a way to make them more accessible to policy makers. Our efforts are supported by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Christensen, Villy; Walters, Carl J. 2004. Ecopath with Ecosim: Methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecological Modelling (Special Issue: Placing Fisheries in their Ecosystem Context). Vol: 172(2-4). Pages 109-139.
Journal Article Christensen, Villy; Walters, Carl J. 2004. Trade-offs in ecosystem-scale optimization of fisheries management policies. Bulletin of Marine Science. Vol: 74. Pages 549-562.
Presentations Christensen, Villy. 2005. Decision tools for ecosystem based management of fisheries, 14-18 February 2005. Key Largo, FL.
Journal Article Cox, Sean P.; Martell, Steve J.D.; Walters, Carl J.; Essington, Timothy E.; Kitchell, James F.; Boggs, Christofer H.; Kaplan, Isaac C. 2002. Reconstructing ecosystem dynamics in the central Pacific Ocean, 1952-1998. I. Estimating population biomass and recruitment of tunas and billfishes. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 59(11). Pages 1724-1735.
Journal Article Cox, Sean P.; Essington, Timothy E.; Kitchell, James F.; Martell, Steve J.D.; Walters, Carl J.; Boggs, Christofer H.; Kaplan, Isaac C. 2002. Reconstructing ecosystem dynamics in the central Pacific Ocean, 1952-1998. II. A preliminary assessment of the trophic impacts of fishing and effects on tuna dynamics. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 59(11). Pages 1736-1747.
Presentations Essington, Timothy E.; Kitchell, James F.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Olson, Robert J.; Boggs, Christofer H.; Hilborn, Ray. 2000. Ecological consequences of alternative fisheries: Examples from yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the Pacific Ocean. 51st International Tuna Conference, May 22-25. Lake Arrowhead, CA.
Journal Article Essington, Timothy E. 2001. The precautionary approach in fisheries management: The devil is in the details. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. Vol: 16. Pages 121-122.
Journal Article Essington, Timothy E.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Olson, Robert J.; Kitchell, James F.; Boggs, Christofer H.; Hilborn, Ray. 2002. Alternative fisheries and the predation rate of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Ecological Applications. Vol: 12(3). Pages 724-734.
Journal Article Essington, Timothy E. 2004. Getting the right answer from the wrong model: Evaluating the sensitivity of multispecies fisheries advice to uncertain species interactions. Bulletin of Marine Science. Vol: 74. Pages 563-581.
Journal Article Essington, Timothy E.; Hansson, Sture. 2004. Predator-dependent functional responses and interaction strengths in a natural food web. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 61. Pages 2227-2236.
Journal Article Essington, Timothy E.; Beaudreau, A. H.; Wiedenmann, J. 2006. Fishing through marine food webs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol: 103. Pages 3171-3175.
Book Chapter Essington, Timothy E. 2006. Pelagic ecosystem response to a century of commerical fishing and whaling. Edited by Estes, J. A.; DeMaster, D. P.; Doak, D. F.; Williams, T. M.; Brownell, R. F.. Whales, Whaling and Ocean Ecosystems. University of California Press, Berkeley. Los Angeles, CA. Pages 38-49.
Presentations Field, John; Gaichas, Sarah. 2001. Comparative modeling approaches for exploited marine ecosystems in the Northeast Pacific, 11-12 December 2001. Rebuilding Sustainable Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems. 7th National Marine Fisheries Service Stock Assessment Workshop. National Marine Fisheries Service Santa Cruz Laboratory.
Presentations Field, John. 2002. Ecosystem modeling in the Northern California Current. West Coast Groundfish Working Group, 29 April 2002. School of Fisheries, University of Washington/National Marine Fisheries Service.
Presentations Field, John. 2003. Ecosystem modeling and management in the Northern California Current, 18 February 2003. NMFS Southwest Fishery Science Center, Santa Cruz Laboratory. Santa Cruz, CA.
Presentations Field, John. 2003. Ecosystem modeling in the Northern California Current, 28 February 2003. Session on Sustainable Groundfish Management. Oregon Chapter of the American Fisheries Society Annual Meeting.
Presentations Field, John; Aydin, Kerim. 2003. Ecosystem models of the Northeast Pacific. Modeling Techniques for Incorporating Ecosystem Indices in Stock Assessments. NMFS Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) Working Group.
Presentations Field, John. 2003. Modeling Northeast Pacific ecosystems. Climate Impacts Group (JISAO/SMA CIG), 3 June 2003. Joint Institute for the Study of Ocean and Atmosphere/ School of Marine Affairs.
Dissertation or Thesis Field, John. 2004. Application of ecosystem-based fishery management approaches in the northern California Current. Ph.D. Thesis. University of Washington, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences.
Presentations Field, John; Francis, Robert C.; Aydin, Kerim. 2004. Top down modeling and bottom up dynamics: Linking fisheries-based multispecies models with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current. 13th Annual Meeting of the North Pacific Science Organization (PICES) Session S2: .
Journal Article Field, John; Francis, Robert C. 2006. Considering ecosystem-based fisheries management in the California Current. Marine Policy. Vol: 30. Pages 552-569.
Journal Article Field, John; Francis, Robert C.; Aydin, Kerim. 2006. Top-down modeling and bottom-up dynamics: Linking a fisheries-based ecosystem model with climate hypotheses in the Northern California Current. Progress in Oceanography. Vol: 68. Pages 238-270.
Presentations Francis, Robert C.; Field, John. 2002. Ecosystem modeling and management in the Northern California Current, 28 October 2002. Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) of the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC).
Journal Article Francis, Robert C. 2003. A web of small tensions. Fisheries. Vol: 28(2). Pages 20-23.
Presentations Francis, Robert C. 2003. Climate and salmon: Some thoughts from outside the box. North Pacific Anadromous Fisheries Commission Meeting. Honolulu, HI.
Presentations Gaichas, Sarah. 2002. Development of Ecosim applications in the North Pacific. Towards Understanding Ecopath with Ecosim's Potential Role in Fisheries Management, 29 March 2002. Alaska Fisheries Science Center.
Presentations Gaichas, Sarah. 2002. Ecosystem modeling in the Gulf of Alaska with implications for fisheries management, 19-21 August 2002. American Fisheries Society. Baltimore, MD.
Presentations Gaichas, Sarah. 2002. The sum of the parts equals?: Stabs at ecosystem modeling in the Gulf of Alaska. Quantitative Seminar, 10 May 2002. University of Washington.
Presentations Gaichas, Sarah. 2003. Predation by groundfish in the Gulf of Alaska: A thermodynamically challenged system?. American Fisheries Society. Quebec.
Journal Article Gaichas, Sarah; Aydin, Kerim; Francis, Robert C. 2010. Using food web model results to inform stock assessment estimates of mortality and production for ecosystem-based fisheries management. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 67. Pages 1490-1506. (Online version)
Presentations Hinke, Jefferson; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Kitchell, James F.; Watters, George; Olson, Robert J. 2002. Pelagic marine food web responses to fisheries management scenarios: A modeling exercise. Ecological Society of America.
Presentations Hinke, Jefferson. 2003. Comparing fishery effects on the pelagic food webs in the Pacific. PFEL Program Review. Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory. Pacific Grove, CA.
Journal Article Hinke, Jefferson; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Aydin, Kerim; Watters, George; Olson, Robert J.; Kitchell, James F. 2004. Visualizing the food-web effects of fishing for tunas in the Pacific Ocean. Ecology and Society. Vol: 9(1). Pages 10. (Online version)
Report or White Paper IATTC. 1999. IATTC Working Subgroup on Ecological Studies and Modeling. Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission. La Jolla, CA. Pages 10.
Report or White Paper IATTC. 2000. IATTC Bycatch Working Group, Chairman's Report. Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission. La Jolla, CA. Pages 19.
Presentations Kaplan, Isaac C. 2002. Ecosystem dynamics in the central Pacific (1952-1998): Comparison of single- and multi-species approaches. International Tuna Conference, 20 May 2002. Lake Arrowhead, CA.
Presentations Kaplan, Isaac C. 2002. Fishery effects on pelagic foodwebs in the Pacific: Application of an ecosystem model. Tuna Conference, 20 May 2002. Lake Arrowhead, CA.
Journal Article Kaplan, Isaac C. 2003. Book Review: Monitoring ecosystems: Interdisciplinary approaches for evaluating ecoregional initiatives (2003, Busch, D. E., and J. C. Trexler, eds). Conservation Ecology. Vol: 7. Pages 1.
Presentations Kaplan, Isaac C. 2004. A very preliminary risk assessment for Pacific leatherback turtles. American Fisheries Society Annual Meeting. Madison, WI.
Dissertation or Thesis Kaplan, Isaac C. 2004. Ecosystem modeling of marine populations. Ph.D. Thesis. University of Wisconsin, Madison. Madison, WI.
Presentations Kaplan, Isaac C. 2004. State space models for yellowfin tuna catch-effort data. International Tuna Conference. Lake Arrowhead, CA.
Presentations Kaplan, Isaac C. 2004. State space models for yellowfin tuna catch-effort data. Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting, 1-6 August 2004. Portland, OR.
Journal Article Kaplan, Isaac C. 2005. A risk assessment for Pacific leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea). Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 62. Pages 1710-1719.
Journal Article Kitchell, James F.; Cox, Sean P.; Harvey, Chris J.; Johnson, T. B.; Mason, Doran M.; Schoen, K. K.; Aydin, Kerim; Bronte, C.; Ebener, M.; Hansen, Michael J.; Hoff, Michael; Schram, S.; Schreiner, D.; Walters, Carl J. 2000. Sustainability of the Lake Superior fish community: Interactions in a food web context. Ecosystems. Vol: 3. Pages 545-560.
Presentations Kitchell, James F. 2001. Fisheries and food webs in an ecosystem context. Annual Ecology Symposium, Invited Speaker, April 2001. Texas A&M University. College Station, Texas.
Presentations Kitchell, James F. 2001. Fisheries and food webs in an ecosystem context. Annual Meeting of the International Association for Great Lakes Research, Plenary Speaker, June 2001. Green Bay, WI.
Presentations Kitchell, James F. 2001. Topic: Marine management, May 2001. School of Fisheries, University of Washington.
Presentations Kitchell, James F. 2001. Topic: Marine management, November 2001. Duke University Marine Laboratory, Duke University. Beaufort, NC.
Presentations Kitchell, James F. 2001. Topic: Marine management, October 2001. Department of Biology, University of Minnesota-Duluth. Duluth, MN.
Journal Article Kitchell, James F.; Essington, Timothy E.; Boggs, Christofer H.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Walters, Carl J. 2002. The role of sharks and longline fisheries in a pelagic ecosystem of the central Pacific. Ecosystems. Vol: 5. Pages 202-216.
Presentations Kitchell, James F. 2002. Topic: Marine management, February 2002. Institute for Ecosystem Studies. Milbrook, NY.
Journal Article Kitchell, James F.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Cox, Sean P.; Martell, Steve J.D.; Essington, Timothy E.; Boggs, Christofer H.; Walters, Carl J. 2004. Ecological and economic components of alternative fishing methods to reduce bycatch of marlin in a tropical pelagic ecosystem. Bulletin of Marine Science. Vol: 74(3). Pages 607-619.
Journal Article Kitchell, James F.; Martell, Steve J.D.; Walters, Carl J.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Watters, Jeffery; Essington, Timothy E.; Boggs, Christofer H. 2006. Billfishes in an ecosystem context. Bulletin of Marine Science. Vol: 79(3). Pages 669-682.
Journal Article Kitchell, James F. 2007. Finding your ecosystem episteme. Conservation Biology. Vol: 21(3). Pages 891-892.
Journal Article Lessard, Bob; Martell, Steve J.D.; Walters, Carl J.; Essington, Timothy E.; Kitchell, James F. 2005. Should ecosystem management involve active control of species abundances?. Ecology and Society. Vol: 10(2).
Presentations Martell, Steve J.D. 2002. Effects of climate change on marine population abundance, and consequences for fisheries management. 41st Annual Meeting of the Canadian Zoological Association, 10 May 2002. Lethbridge, Canada.
Journal Article Martell, Steve J.D.; Essington, Timothy E.; Lessard, Bob; Kitchell, James F.; Walters, Carl J.; Boggs, Christofer H. 2005. Interactions of productivity, predation risk, and fishing effort in the efficacy of marine protected areas for the central Pacific. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 62. Pages 1320-1336.
Journal Article Munch, Stephan B.; Snover, M.; Watters, George; Mangel, Marc. 2005. A unified treatment of top-down and bottom-up control of reproduction in populations. Ecology Letters. Vol: 8(7). Pages 691-695.
Presentations Olson, Robert J.; Watters, George. 1999. An ecosystem model for the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean: Review of progress. 50th Annual Tuna Conference, May 24-27. Lake Arrowhead, CA.
Presentations Olson, Robert J.; Watters, George; Aydin, Kerim; Kitchell, James F.; Boggs, Christofer H.; Essington, Timothy E.; Fiedler, Paul; Francis, Robert C.; Polovina, Jeffrey; Walters, Carl J. 2001. Interactive effects of climate and fishing on the eastern tropical Pacific pelagic ecosystem. 52nd International Tuna Conference, May 21-24. Lake Arrowhead, CA.
Report or White Paper Olson, Robert J.; Watters, George; Audin, K. Y.; Boggs, Christofer H.; Essington, Timothy E.; Francis, Robert C.; Kitchell, James F.; Polovina, Jeffrey; Walters, Carl J. 2002. Interactive effects of climate variability and fishing: A modelling analysis for the eastern tropical Pacific pelagic ecosystem. Edited by Christensen, V.; Reck, G.; Maclean, J. L.. Proceedings of the INCO-DC Conference Placing Fisheries in their Ecosystem Context. December 4-8, 2000. Vol: 12. ACP-EU. Galapagos Islands, Ecuador. Pages 31-32.
Presentations Olson, Robert J.; Watters, George. 2002. The pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean: A modeling approach. 53rd International Tuna Conference, May 20-23. Lake Arrowhead, CA.
Journal Article Olson, Robert J.; Watters, George. 2003. A model of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission Bulletin. Vol: 22(3). Pages 133-219.
Journal Article Schindler, Daniel E.; Essington, Timothy E.; Kitchell, James F.; Boggs, Christofer H.; Hilborn, Ray. 2002. Sharks and tunas: Fisheries impacts on predators with contrasting life histories. Ecological Applications. Vol: 12(3). Pages 735-748. (Abstract)
Journal Article Shannon, L. J.; Christensen, Villy; Walters, Carl J. 2004. Modelling stock dynamics in the southern Benguela ecosystem for the period 1978-2002. African Journal of Marine Science. Vol: 26. Pages 179-196.
Journal Article Walters, Carl J.; Pauly, D. M.; Christensen, Villy; Kitchell, James F. 2000. Representing density dependent consequences of life history strategies in aquatic ecosystems: EcoSim II. Ecosystems. Vol: 3. Pages 70-83.
Journal Article Walters, Carl J.; Kitchell, James F. 2001. Cultivation/depensation effects on juvenile survival and recruitment: Implications for the theory of fishing. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 58(1). Pages 39-50. (Abstract)
Presentations Walters, Carl J. 2001. Topic: Marine management, 11 November 2001. Mote Marine Laboratory. Sarasota, FL.
Presentations Walters, Carl J. 2002. Topic: Marine management, 12 April 2002. North Carolina State University.
Presentations Walters, Carl J. 2002. Topic: Marine management, 15 March 2002. Florida State University.
Presentations Walters, Carl J. 2002. Topic: Marine management, 26 April 2002. Rosensteil School, University of Miami.
Journal Article Walters, Carl J. 2003. Folly and fantasy in the analysis of spatial catch rate data. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 60(12). Pages 1433-1436.
Presentations Walters, Carl J.; Christensen, Villy. 2004. Ecosystem structure erosion under myopic management. International Symposium, 31 March-3 April 2004. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO. Paris.
Book Walters, Carl J.; Martell, Steve J.D. 2004. Fisheries Ecology and Management. Princeton University Press. Princeton. Pages 448.
Journal Article Walters, Carl J. 2004. Simple representation of the dynamics of biomass error propagation for stock assessment models. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 61(7). Pages 1061-1065.
Journal Article Walters, Carl J.; Hilborn, Ray. 2005. Exploratory assessment of historical recruitment patterns using relative abundance and catch data. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 62. Pages 1985-1990.
Journal Article Walters, Carl J.; Christensen, Villy; Martell, Steve J.D.; Kitchell, James F. 2005. Possible ecosystem impacts of applying MSY policies from single-species assessment. ICES Journal of Marine Science. Vol: 62(3). Pages 558-568.
Presentations Watters, George; Olson, Robert J. 2002. EwE model developed for the Eastern Tropical Pacific: How an ecosystem model can be used to quantify and understand tradeoffs between fishing gears. Towards Understanding Ecopath with Ecosim's Potential Role in Fisheries Management, 29 March 2002. Alaska Fisheries Science Center.
Presentations Watters, George; Martell, Steve J.D. 2002. Fitting an Ecosim model to simulated data: Various issues involved with trying to estimate parameters in an ecosystem modeling context. Towards Understanding Ecopath with Ecosim's Potential Role in Fisheries Management, 29 March 2002. Alaska Fisheries Science Center.
Presentations Watters, George; Olson, Robert J.; Hinke, Jefferson; Kaplan, Isaac C. 2002. Tradeoffs and tuna fisheries in the eastern tropical Pacific. Confronting Tradeoffs in the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management, 5-7 November 2002. William R. and Lenore Mote International Symposium. Sarasota, FL.
Journal Article Watters, George; Olson, Robert J.; Francis, Robert C.; Fiedler, Paul; Polovina, Jeffrey; Reilly, Stephen; Aydin, Kerim; Boggs, Christofer H.; Essington, Timothy E.; Walters, Carl J.; Kitchell, James F. 2003. Physical forcing and the dynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific: Simulations with ENSO-scale and global-warming climate drivers. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 60(9). Pages 1161-1175.