NCEAS Project 6881

Seasonality and the population dynamics of infectious diseases

  • Mercedes Pascual
  • Andrew P. Dobson

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ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group2nd—5th October 2003Participant List  
Working Group26th—29th April 2004Participant List  
Working Group14th—19th October 2004Participant List  
Working Group2nd—8th June 2005Participant List  

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Abstract
Seasonal variation takes many forms in the natural world. All of us notice the annual cycles in temperature, day length, and rainfall, and these have profound effects on rates of resource production and availability that plants and animals respond to in order to modify their reproduction and maintenance schedules. These regular cycles impose constraints and create opportunities for transmission of infectious diseases. Humans also superimpose seasonal processes onto their lives in a way that creates opportunities for infectious diseases; for example school semesters and annual vacations. This working group will examine the different ways in which seasonal variation in population size, contact rates and the survival of free-living infectious stages modifies the population dynamics of infectious diseases. The working group will bring together biologists, epidemiologists and mathematicians all of who have worked on different aspects of these problems. The workshop is particularly relevant to our understanding of the potential disease problems associated with climate change.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Altizer, Sonia; Dobson, Andrew P.; Hosseini, Parviez R.; Hudson, Peter J.; Pascual, Mercedes; Rohani, Pejman. 2006. Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecology Letters. Vol: 9. Pages 467-484.
Journal Article Bolzoni, Luca; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gatto, Marino; De Leo, Giulio. 2008. Allometric scaling and seasonality in the epidemics of wildlife diseases. American Naturalist. Vol: 172(6). Pages 818-828. (Online version)
Journal Article Cattadori, Isabella; Boag, B.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Cornell, S. J.; Hudson, Peter J. 2005. Peak shift and epidemiology in a seasonal host-nematode system. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 272. Pages 1163-1169.
Journal Article Hosseini, Parviez R.; Dhondt, Andre A.; Dobson, Andrew P. 2004. Seasonality and wildlife disease: How seasonal birth, aggregation and variation in immunity affect the dynamics of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in house finches. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 271. Pages 2569-2577.
Presentations King, Aaron A. 2005. Linking mechanistic models with epidemiological data: Parameter estimation in the face of incomplete information. SIAM Conference on Applications of Dynamical Systems, 26 May 2005. Snowbird, UT.
Presentations King, Aaron A. 2005. Linking mechanistic models with epidemiological data: Parameter estimation in the face of incomplete information. ESA Annual Meeting Theory Symposium. Montreal, California.
Journal Article Koelle, Katia; Pascual, Mercedes; Yunus, Md. 2005. Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 272. Pages 971-977.
Presentations Koelle, Katia; Pascual, Mercedes; Yunus, Md. 2005. What goes around comes around: Serotype cycling in cholera dynamics. ESA Annual Meeting. Montreal, California.
Journal Article Pascual, Mercedes; Dobson, Andrew P. 2005. Seasonal patterns of infectious diseases. PLoS Medicine. Vol: 2(1). Pages 18-20.