Predicting community-level responses to disturbance: Implications for reserve design (Hosted by NCEAS)

• Benjamin S. Halpern

Abstract
Determining the causes of community stability and productivity remains an elusive goal for ecologists and conservationists alike. A major impediment to filling this gap in our understanding is the lack of ecological data at a scale large enough and over long enough a timeframe to allow differentiation of ephemeral and local changes in biological communities from persistent and general patterns. Using data from the Channel Islands kelp forest monitoring program, which spans hundreds of kilometers and 22 years, I will apply a variety of time-series and multi-factor statistical models to test which factors affect community variables such as stability, trophic and community structure, and productivity (measured as biomass). Results from this work will provide ecologists, conservationists, and resource managers an essential tool for developing more appropriate expectations for long-term responses of biological communities to anthropogenic influences, both negative (e.g., species invasions, species loss, habitat alteration, effects of climate change) and positive (e.g., protection within parks and reserves).