NCEAS Project 7961

Risk analysis for alien species and emerging infectious diseases

  • John M. Drake

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Postdoctoral Fellow1st June 2004—30th June 2006Participant List  

Abstract
Undesirable alien species and emerging infectious diseases (of both wildlife and humans) are urgent environmental concerns. Considerable effort has therefore been invested in understanding the ecology and evolution of invasive species and of infectious diseases. Despite exhibiting similar dynamics that are modeled with the same techniques, these phenomena are commonly studied by separate research communities for the purposes of risk analysis, management, and control. This project will develop techniques for risk analysis of intentional and unintentional introductions of non-indigenous species and will investigate areas of cross-fertilization with epidemiological theory. The products of this study will be tools for decision-making in the presence of uncertainty and specific recommendations for six case studies.

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Drake, John M.; Bossenbroek, Jonathan M. 2004. The potential distribution of zebra mussels in the united states. BioScience. Vol: 54(10). Pages 931-941.
Presentations Drake, John M. 2005. Allee effects in invasive species: The discrepancy between models and data. Gypsy Moth and Other Invasive Species, 18-21 January 2005. USDA Interagency Research Forum. Annapolis, MD.
Presentations Drake, John M. 2005. Computational approaches to ecological forecasting: Disease outbreaks and species re-distribution, 4 November 2005. Washington University.
Presentations Drake, John M. 2005. Computational approaches to modeling disease-environment interactions: Forecasting malaria dynamics in Africa with support vector machines, 12 December 2005. Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University.
Journal Article Drake, John M. 2005. Density-dependent demographic variation determines extinction rate of experimental populations. PLoS Biology. Vol: 3(7). Pages 1300-1304.
Presentations Drake, John M. 2005. Ethical considerations: Why does it matter?. Invasive Species and the Public Good, 24 January 2005. Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies Lecture Series. New Haven, CT.
Data Set Drake, John M. 2005. Foreign game bird liberations in the U.S., 1960-1978. (Online version)
Presentations Drake, John M. 2005. Local and global dynamics of biological invasions in aquatic ecosystems, 3 November 2005. Washington University.
Presentations Drake, John M. 2005. Modeling the potential distribution of zebra mussels in the United States: Pattern recognition and one-class classification, 4 Februrary 2005. University of Tennessee. Knoxville, TN.
Journal Article Drake, John M. 2005. Population effects of increased climate variation. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 272. Pages 1823-1827.
Journal Article Drake, John M. 2005. Proceedings of the 24th annual midwest ecology and evolution conference: Introduction. American Midland Naturalist. Vol: 153(1). The University of Notre Dame. Pages 1-3.
Journal Article Drake, John M. 2005. Risk analysis for invasive species and emerging infectious diseases: Concepts and applications. American Midland Naturalist. Vol: 153. Pages 4-19.
Journal Article Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M.; Lewis, Mark A. 2005. Theory and preliminary analysis of species invasions from ballast water: Controlling discharge volume and location. American Midland Naturalist. Vol: 154. Pages 459-470.
Journal Article Drake, John M.; Costello, Christopher; Lodge, David M. 2005. When did the discovery rate for invasive species in the North American Great Lakes accelerate?. BioScience. Vol: 55(1). Pages 4.
Journal Article Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M. 2006. Allee effects, propagule pressure and the probability of establishment: Risk analysis for biological invasions. Biological Invasions. Vol: 8. Pages 365-375.
Presentations Drake, John M. 2006. Biological invasions in aquatic ecosystems: Local and global, 13 February 2006. University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Chapel Hill, NC.
Journal Article Drake, John M.; Drury, Kevin; Lodge, David M.; Blukacz, Agnes; Yan, Norman; Dwyer, Greg. 2006. Demographic stochasticity, environmental variability, and windows of invasion risk for Bythotrephes longimanus in North America. Biological Invasions. Vol: 8. Pages 843-861.
Journal Article Drake, John M. 2006. Extinction times in experimental populations. Ecology. Vol: 87(9). Pages 2215-2220.
Presentations Drake, John M. 2006. Forecasting population fluctuations in ecology and epidemiology: Stochastic phenomena and computational analysis, 9 February 2006. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. Blacksburg, VA.
Journal Article Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M. 2006. Forecasting potential distributions of nonindigenous species with a genetic algorithm. Fisheries. Vol: 31(1). Pages 9-16.
Journal Article Drake, John M. 2006. Heterosis, the catapult effect and establishment success of a colonizing bird. Biology Letters. Vol: 2. Pages 304-307.
Journal Article Drake, John M. 2006. Limits to forecasting precision for outbreaks of directly transmitted diseases. PLoS Medicine. Vol: 3(1). Pages 57-62.
Presentations Drake, John M. 2006. Mechanistic and computational approaches to forecasting population fluctuations in ecology and epidemiology, 23 January 2006. University of Georgia, Institute of Ecology.
Journal Article Drake, John M.; Randin, Christophe; Guisan, Antoine. 2006. Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines. Journal of Applied Ecology. Vol: 43. Pages 424-432.
Journal Article Drake, John M.; Chew, Suok Kai; Ma, Stefan. 2006. Societal learning in epidemics: Intervention effectiveness during the 2003 SARS outbreak in Singapore. PLoS ONE. Vol: 1(1). Pages e20-e20. (Online version)
Presentations Drake, John M. 2006. Understanding the drivers of population fluctuation and expansion: Extinction, invasion, and disease outbreak on landscapes, 27 January 2006. Georgia Tech. Atlanta, GA.
Journal Article Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M. 2007. Hull fouling is a risk factor for intercontinental species exchange in aquatic ecosystems. Aquatic Invasions. Vol: 2(2). Pages 121-131.
Journal Article Drake, John M. 2007. Parental investment and fecundity, but not brain size, are associated with establishment success in introduced fishes. Functional Ecology. Vol: 21. Pages 963-968.
Journal Article Drake, John M.; Bossenbroek, Jonathan M. 2009. Profiling ecosystem vulnerability to invasion by zebra mussels with support vector machines. Theoretical Ecology. Springer Netherlands.
Presentations Drake, John M. Ethical considerations: Why does it matter?. Lecture Series: Invasive Species and the Public Good, Opening Forum. Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies. New Haven, CT.
Journal Article Drury, Kevin; Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M.; Dwyer, Greg. 2007. Immigration events dispersed in space and time: Factors affecting invasion success. Ecological Modelling. Vol: 206. Pages 63-78.
Journal Article Keller, Reuben P.; Drake, John M.; Lodge, David M. 2007. Fecundity as a basis for risk assessment of nonindigenous freshwater molluscs. Conservation Biology. Vol: 21(1). Pages 191-200.