Forest plant metapopulations in fragmented and dynamic landscapes: Synthesizing models and data

• Mark Vellend

Abstract
A central goal of ecology and conservation biology is to understand the responses of populations and communities to spatial and temporal landscape heterogeneity. Many regions of Europe and eastern North America share broadly similar histories of land use over the past several centuries, with varying degrees of forest fragmentation via clearance for agriculture, and varying degrees of forest recovery on abandoned agricultural lands. Organisms in such fragmented and dynamic landscapes exist as metapopulations, but metapopulation theory has only recently begun to incorporate dynamics of the landscape itself (i.e., habitat turnover). The most data-friendly metapopulation model is the ¿spatially-realistic¿ Incidence Function Model (IFM) of Hanski. Here I propose to develop modified versions of the IFM to incorporate habitat turnover, and to use these as a theoretical framework in which to synthesize data on forest-plant patch occupancy patterns in landscapes throughout Europe and eastern North America. Data from multiple landscapes will allow models parameterized for one landscape to be tested in others. This integration of models and data will allow metapopulation dynamics and persistence to be projected under a range of scenarios of future land-use change.