Coexistence in a changing environment: Evaluating the role of climatic variability in semiarid plant communities

• Peter B. Adler

Abstract
Understanding how climatic variability influences the coexistence of species is critical to forecasting how climate change will affect local species diversity, especially given predicted increases in variability in many regions. The importance of variability is demonstrated by a well-developed body of ecological theory that shows how temporal fluctuations can benefit, harm, or have no effect on coexistence. My proposed research evaluates the influence of climatic variability on species diversity in widespread vegetation types of the central and western U.S. by linking unique long-term, spatially explicit datasets to theory using statistical and simulation models. The results will represent a first step towards predicting the effects of climate change on these plant communities.