diversity curve
John Alroy's Humble Home Page

Recent papers

Speciation and extinction in the fossil record of North American mammals. Pp. 301-323 in R. Butlin, J. Bridle, and D. Schluter, (eds.), Speciation and Patterns of Diversity. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2009)

Dynamics of origination and extinction in the marine fossil record. PNAS 105:11536-11542 (2008)

Phanerozoic trends in the global diversity of marine invertebrates. Science 321:97-100 (with 34 others: 2008)

Statistical independence of escalatory ecological trends in Phanerozoic marine invertebrates. Science 312:897-900 (with Madin et al.: 2006)

John Alroy is a center associate at the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara, where he coordinates the Paleobiology Database and co-teaches the PaleoDB's annual summer course. He prefers to speak in the third person only when this is amusing.

Back to first person. I am now a grownup and a a very happy family man, as you can tell.

I think the PaleoDB's members will finish plugging in the entire fossil record any day now. I also think that someday the Mets will win the World Series. Some people say I am not very realistic. They are correct.

Overcited papers

Effects of sampling standardization on estimates of Phanerozoic marine diversification. PNAS 98(11):6261-6266 (with 24 others: 2001)

A multi-species overkill simulation of the end-Pleistocene megafaunal mass extinction. Science 292:1893-1896 (2001)

New methods for quantifying macroevolutionary patterns and processes. Paleobiology 26(4):707-733 (2000)

Cope's rule and the dynamics of body mass evolution in North American mammals. Science 280:731-734 (1998)

family

My main research focus is still on diversity curves, speciation, and extinction. Will I ever see the light at the end of the Phanerozoic? I develop methods to estimate these abstract numerical things and then apply said methods over and over again to Cenozoic North American mammals and Phanerozoic marine invertebrates.

I also have projects going on body mass evolution, molecular clock calibration, and early childhood development. I maintain an interest in late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions, and as a young'un I worked on quantitative methods of time scale construction.

I am a graduate of Reed College and the Committee on Evolutionary Biology at the University of Chicago (like a lot of people). Between 1994 and 1996 I was a post-doctoral fellow in the University of Arizona's Research Training Group in the Analysis of Biodiversification, which is affiliated with the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. Between 1996 and 1998 I had yet another post-doc with the Smithsonian Institution's Department of Paleobiology and Evolution of Terrestrial Ecosystems consortium.

If you simply must know right now you can cast an e-mail into the ether using this address: alroy at nceas dot ucsb dot edu.

Sordes init, exit scientia.

Old papers I wish someone would read

Are Sepkoski's evolutionary faunas dynamically coherent? Evolutionary Ecology Research 6(1):1-32 (2004)

Taxonomic inflation and body mass distributions in North American fossil mammals. Journal of Mammalogy 84(2):431-443 (2003)

How many named species are valid? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99:3706-3711 (2002)

Putting North America's end-Pleistocene megafaunal extinction in context: large scale analyses of spatial patterns, extinction rates, and size distributions. Pp. 105-143 in R. D. E. MacPhee (ed.), Extinctions in near time: causes, contexts, and consequences. Plenum, New York (1999)

The fossil record of North American mammals: evidence for a Paleocene evolutionary radiation. Systematic Biology 48(1):107-118 (1999: perhaps read but certainly ignored by our molecular friends)

Alroy's Abbreviated Ten Statistical Commandments

Overarching themes

• Log thy data

• Life's but a gradient

• See the nonparametric light

• Disdain p-values

• Maximize a posteriori

Diversity curve variations

• Abhor tiny time series

• Difference thy time series

• Sample fairly, if not uniformly

• Count only thy sampled taxa

• The secret of life is... two timers