The Marine Disease Ecology group met for 6 days from June 4-10 and will meet again from Feb 27- Mar 3. We continued to identify general principles associated with pathogens in the ocean and organized a review paper led by Hamish McCallum identifying Marine Terrestrial Contrasts in Disease Ecology. The group also considered whether it was feasible to detect a time series in disease impacts by developing a data base and decided that the existing data on marine diseases was not adequate. Instead a group led by Kevin Lafferty is focussing on what sorts of recent increased impacts of marine disease might be detectable. New developments planned for the Feb-Mar meeting include reviewing the rate of spillover from seafarming and ranching, as one type of activity that has increased in the ocean and could be increasing disease transmission. We continued Seafan disease modelling and data analysis projects from September, and expect to complete these in February. The seafan SIR model has progressed and data plotted to parameterize the model. Ellner, Kim and Harvell worked with analysis of environmental drivers of seafan prevalence and severity. Susan Ford brought her groups 50 year time series on Perkinsus and MSX and worked with statisticians and modellers to evaluate the differing transmission modes and their consequences for temperature correlations. The Sirf model that was started with Cholera and seafan-fungal disease in mind was further developed and insights added from oyster diseases. New modelling approaches for marine disease were developed with a plan to test the chain lattice model on the spread of the Pilchard epizootic from Australia. Jessica Ward is assembling a data base on temperature sensitivity of marine pathogens. Leah Gerber led a discussion on marine reserve development and marine disease, and this topic will be further developed in Feb-Mar.
Titles of ongoing projects:
Marine Terrestrial Contrasts in Disease Ecology
Dectecting Recent Increased Impacts of Marine Disease
What is a New Disease?
Environmental Drivers of Seafan Fungal Disease
Environmental Drivers of Oyster Diseases
Modelling Seafan Fungal Disease and the Detectability of Local Transmission
The Role of Environmental Reservoirs and Transmission Mechanisms in Cholera, Oysters and Seafans
The Role of Temperature in Marine Epizootics
Designing Marine Reserves to Optimize Disease Control