Global climate change and adaptation of conservation priorities

Principal Investigators:

M. Rebecca Shaw

This working group will develop methods for the production of future climate projections at biologically-relevant scales (30m - 5km). Methods explored will include expert-driven and Baysian probability frameworks. The group will include expertise in taking information from multiple GCMs and multiple climatologists to make informed estimates of local changes in temperature and precipitation. The methods developed will allow use of information from GCMs and RCMs where they are in agreement, but use expert opinion where the climate models clearly... more

Participants and Meetings

Working Group Participants
ActivityDatesFurther Information
Meeting24th—26th October 2005Participant List  
Working Group18th—19th September 2008Participant List  
Working Group12th—13th May 2009Participant List  
Working Group2nd—4th November 2009Participant List  
Working Group10th—13th August 2010Participant List  
Working Group15th—16th May 2011Participant List  
Working Group5th—6th April 2012Participant List  
Working Group6th—9th November 2012Participant List  

Participant Contact Information

Frank W. Davisfrank.davis@nceas.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Timothy P. Duaneduane@berkeley.eduUniversity of California, Berkeley
Patrick Gonzalezpgonzalez@tnc.orgThe Nature Conservancy
Lee Hannahl.hannah@conservation.orgConservation International
Lara J. Hansenlara.hansen@wwfus.orgWorld Wildlife Fund
Linda Joyceljoyce@fs.fed.usUSDA Forest Service
Susan Juliusjulius.susan@epa.govUS Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Peter Kareivapkareiva@ioes.ucla.eduThe Nature Conservancy
Kirk Klausmeyerkklausmeyer@tnc.orgThe Nature Conservancy
Joshua J. Lawlerjlawler@u.washington.eduOregon State University
Ed MaurerEMaurer@scu.eduSanta Clara University
Peter Millerpmiller@nature.berkeley.eduUniversity of California, Berkeley
Jonathan T. Overpeckjto@u.arizona.eduUniversity of Arizona
Sam Pearsallsampearsall@tnc.orgThe Nature Conservancy
Chris Pykecpyke@usgbc.orgUS Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
Terry Roottroot@stanford.eduStanford University
Earl SaxonThe Nature Conservancy
M. Rebecca Shawcommunications@wwfus.orgThe Nature Conservancy
Ayn Shliskyashlisky@tnc.orgThe Nature Conservancy
Bill Stanleybstanley@tnc.orgThe Nature Conservancy
Timothy H. Tearttear@tnc.orgThe Nature Conservancy
Robert Wilkinsonwilkinson@bren.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Daniel Cayandcayan@ucsd.eduUniversity of California, San Diego
Curtis Deutschcdeutsch@atmos.ucla.eduUniversity of California, Los Angeles
Janet Franklinjanet.franklin@asu.eduSan Diego State University
Alex Hallalexhall@atmos.ucla.eduUniversity of California, Los Angeles
Jason B. MacKenziejmackenzie@tnc.orgThe Nature Conservancy
Joel C. Michaelsenjoel.michaelsen@senate.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Max A. Moritzmmoritz@ucanr.eduUniversity of California, Berkeley
Kelly Redmondkelly.redmond@dri.eduDesert Research Institute
Helen M. Reganhelen.regan@ucr.eduUniversity of California, Riverside
Steve Schneidershs@leland.stanford.eduStanford University
Nate Stephensonnstephenson@usgs.govUS Geological Survey (USGS)
Alexandra D. Syphardasyphard@yahoo.comSan Diego State University
Anthony Westerlingawesterling@ucmerced.eduUniversity of California, Merced
Tom Wigleywigley@ucar.eduUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric Research
Alan Flintaflint@usgs.govUS Geological Survey (USGS)
Jim Lutzjlutz@u.washington.eduUniversity of Washington
Chris Pottercpotter@mail.arc.nasa.govNational Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
Christophe Randinchristophe.randin@colorado.eduUniversity of Colorado, Boulder
Karyn Taborktabor@conservation.orgConservation International
Christina Taguectague@bren.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Lorraine Flintlflint@usgs.govUS Geological Survey (USGS)
Maki Ikegamimikegami@bren.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Patrick Roehrdanzproehrdanz@bren.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Malcolm Northmpnorth@ucdavis.eduUniversity of California, Davis
John Dingmanjdingman@berkeley.eduUniversity of California, Berkeley
Sean McKnightsmcknight@bren.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Peter Slaughterslaughter@nceas.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Lynn Sweetlsweet@bren.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Ian McCulloughimccullough@bren.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara

Products: Publications, Reports, Datasets, Presentations, Visualizations

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Presentations Davis, Frank W.; Franklin, Janet; Ikegami, Maki; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Flint, Alan; Hannah, Lee. 2010. Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine-scale do climate models need to be?. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting, Dec. 13-17, 2010: . San Francisco, CA.
Presentations Davis, Frank W. 2012. Modeling species distributions to support conservation planning. National Academy of Sciences Joint US/Iran Workshop on Wildlife conservation and Habitat Management, Irvine, CA, April 2012.
Presentations Davis, Frank W. 2013. Connecting microclimates to plant species' range dynamics in a changing climate. Distinguished Miller Lecturer, Department of Geography, Penn State University, March 2013.
Presentations Davis, Frank W. 2013. From microclimates to macroecology: modeling plant species range dynamics in a changing climate. Invited research seminar, Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, The Johns Hopkins University, April 2013.
Presentations Davis, Frank W. 2014. Changing windows of opportunity for tree seedling establishment in California's mountain landscapes. Environmental Studies Seminar Series, UC Santa Cruz, May 2014.
Presentations Davis, Frank W. 2014. From microclimates to macroecology: Modeling plant species range shifts in a changing climate. Hugh Hanson Seminar Speaker, Arizona State University, February 2014.
Presentations Davis, Frank W. 2015. Changing windows of opportunity for tree seedling establishment under 21st Century climate change. 45th Ontario Ecology, Ethology and Evolution Colloquium (OE3C), Toronto, May 2015.
Presentations Davis, Frank W. 2015. Changing windows of opportunity for tree seedling establishment under 21st Century climate change. Sierra Nevada Research Institute, UC Merced, February 2015.
Presentations Davis, Frank W. 2016. From microenvironments to macroecology: Modeling tree species range shifts in a changing climate. Korean National Institute of Ecology Symposium on Climate Change And Ecosystems, Seoul, February 2016.
Journal Article Davis, Frank W.; Sweet, Lynn; Serra-Diaz, Josep; Franklin, Janet; McCullough, Ian; Flint, Alan; Flint, Lorraine; Dingman, John; Regan, Helen M.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Hannah, Lee; Redmond, Kelly; Moritz, Max A. 2016. Shrinking windows of opportunity for oak seedling establishment in southern California mountains. Ecosphere. Vol: 7 (11). (Abstract) (Online version)
Journal Article Franklin, Janet; Davis, Frank W.; Ikegami, Maki; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Hannah, Lee. 2013. Modeling plant species distributions under futureclimates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?. Global Change Biology. Vol: 19. Pages 473-483. (Abstract) (Online version)
Journal Article Lawler, Joshua J.; Tear, Timothy H.; Pyke, Chris; Shaw, M. Rebecca; Gonzalez, Patrick; Kareiva, Peter; Hansen, Lara J.; Hannah, Lee; Klausmeyer, Kirk; Aldous, Allison; Bienz, Craig; Pearsall, Sam. 2010. Resource management in a changing and uncertain climate. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. Vol: 8(1). Pages 35-43. (Online version)
Journal Article McCullough, Ian; Davis, Frank W.; Dingman, John; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Serra-Diaz, Josep; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Moritz, Max A.; Hannah, Lee; Franklin, Janet. 2016. High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes. Landscape Ecology. Vol: 31. Pages 1063-1075. (Abstract) (Online version)
Journal Article Serra-Diaz, Josep; Franklin, Janet; Ninyerola, Miquel; Davis, Frank W.; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.; Ikegami, Maki. 2014. Bioclimatic velocity: the pace of species exposure to climate change. Diversity and Distributions. Vol: 20. Pages 169-180. (Abstract) (Online version)
Journal Article Serra-Diaz, Josep; Franklin, Janet; Sweet, Lynn; McCullough, Ian; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Regan, Helen M.; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Dingman, John; Moritz, Max A.; Redmond, Kelly; Hannah, Lee; Davis, Frank W. 2016. Averaged 30-year climate change projections mask opportunities for species establishment. Ecography. Vol: 39. Pages 844-845. (Abstract) (Online version)
Journal Article Serra-Diaz, Josep; Franklin, Janet; Dillon, Whalen W; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Davis, Frank W.; Meentemeyer, Ross K. 2016. California forests show early indications of both range shifts and local persistence under climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography. Vol: 25. Pages 164-175. (Abstract) (Online version)
"Global climate change and adaptation of conservation priorities " is project ID: 11561