When are matrix models useful for management? An empirical test across plant populations
Principal Investigators:
Elizabeth E. Crone, Martha Ellis, and Eric S. Menges
In the past three decades, the role of matrix-based demographic models in plant conservation has steadily increased. However, the reliability of these methods remains hotly debated. Most tests of model performance have relied on strict conditions for either the datasets being tested or the criteria used to judge accuracy of the results. This leads to a potential disconnect between the variety of ways in which models are used in practice and the limited set of conditions where their performance has been evaluated. Our working group brings together... more
In the past three decades, the role of matrix-based demographic models in plant conservation has steadily increased. However, the reliability of these methods remains hotly debated. Most tests of model performance have relied on strict conditions for either the datasets being tested or the criteria used to judge accuracy of the results. This leads to a potential disconnect between the variety of ways in which models are used in practice and the limited set of conditions where their performance has been evaluated. Our working group brings together a group of ecologists who have worked with these models in applied settings. We will review how models have actually been used in the recent past and discuss what predictions we expect these models to usefully provide. We will then use our demographic data from long-term studies to evaluate how well demographic models actually predict the dynamics of perennial plant populations. We will also address whether increasing methodological complexity (e.g. density dependence, integral projection modeling) improves reliability. The convergence of our group occurs at a moment when sufficient time and data have accumulated to test the predictions of demographic models at relevant time scales for management, and takes advantage of NCEAS capacities to bring together diverse groups and archive key data. Thus, this working group provides a timely opportunity to reevaluate what has become an exceptionally important tool in conservation and management.
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Participants and Meetings

Working Group Participants
Activity | Dates | Further Information |
---|---|---|
Working Group | 13th—17th April 2009 | Participant List |
Working Group | 9th—13th November 2009 | Participant List |
Working Group | 27th February—3rd March 2010 | Participant List |
Working Group | 9th—13th November 2010 | Participant List |
Working Group | 9th—13th April 2011 | Participant List |
Participant Contact Information
Timothy Bell | tbell22@csu.edu | Chicago State University |
Paulette Bierzychudek | bierzych@lclark.edu | Lewis and Clark College |
Elizabeth E. Crone | elizabeth.crone@tufts.edu | University of Montana |
Johan Ehrlén | johan.ehrlen@botan.su.se | Stockholm University |
Martha Ellis | martha.ellis@umontana.edu | University of Montana |
Thomas N. Kaye | tom@appliedeco.org | Institute for Applied Ecology |
Tiffany M. Knight | tknight@biology2.wustl.edu | Washington University in St. Louis |
Peter Lesica | lesica.peter@gmail.com | University of Montana |
Bruce D. Maxwell | bmax@montana.edu | Montana State University |
Eric S. Menges | emenges@archbold-station.org | Archbold Biological Station |
William F. Morris | wfmorris@duke.edu | Duke University |
Gerard Oostermeijer | j.g.b.oostermeijer@uva.nl | University of Amsterdam |
Pedro F. Quintana-Ascencio | pquintan@mail.ucf.edu | University of Central Florida |
Amanda Stanley | amanda@appliedeco.org | Unknown |
Tamara Ticktin | ticktin@hawaii.edu | University of Hawaii, Mānoa |
Teresa Valverde | teresa.valverde@ciencias.unam.mx | Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) |
Jennifer L. Williams | jwilliams@nceas.ucsb.edu | University of California, Santa Barbara |
Products: Publications, Reports, Datasets, Presentations, Visualizations
Type | Products of NCEAS Research |
---|---|
Data Set | Crone, Elizabeth E. 2010. Literature review on the use of matrix population models for plants. (Online version) |
Journal Article | Crone, Elizabeth E.; Menges, Eric S.; Ellis, Martha; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Morris, William F.; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Stanley, Amanda; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L. 2011. How do plant ecologists use matrix population models?. Ecology Letters. Vol: 14. Pages 1-8. (Online version) |
Journal Article | Crone, Elizabeth E.; Ellis, Martha; Morris, William F.; Stanley, Amanda; Bell, Timothy; Bierzychudek, Paulette; Ehrlén, Johan; Kaye, Thomas N.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lesica, Peter; Oostermeijer, Gerard; Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro F.; Ticktin, Tamara; Valverde, Teresa; Williams, Jennifer L.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ganesan, Rengaian; Mceachern, Kathyrn; Thorpe, Andrea S.; Menges, Eric S. 2013. Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations. Conservation Biology. Vol: 27. Pages 968-978. (Online version) |
Journal Article | Pardini, Eleanor A.; Drake, John M.; Chase, Jonathan M.; Knight, Tiffany M. 2009. Complex population dynamics and control of the invasive biennial alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard). Ecological Applications. Vol: 19(2). Pages 387Â397. (Online version) |
"When are matrix models useful for management? An empirical test across plant populations " is project ID: 12320