Red flags and species endangerment: Meta-analytical development of criteria for assessing extinction risk

Principal Investigators:

Robin S. Waples, and Jeffrey A. Hutchings

The proposed project builds on previous work (some of it sponsored by NCEAS) to evaluate performance of criteria for identifying species at risk. Novel aspects of our approach include the following: 1) We begin with a conceptual definition of an endangered species (one that has entered a Red Zone where both extinction risk and uncertainty about biological processes increase non-linearly); 2) We will leverage large datasets that have become available over the last decade, including those for taxa (e.g., marine fishes) for which application of standard... more

Participants and Meetings

Working Group Participants
ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group28th September—1st October 2010Participant List  
Working Group21st—24th March 2011Participant List  
Working Group16th—19th January 2012Participant List  
Working Group29th—31st January 2013Participant List  

Participant Contact Information

H. Resit Akç University of New York (SUNY), Stony Brook
Priyanga Amarasekareamarasek@eeb.ucla.eduUniversity of California, Los Angeles
Stuart H.M. Butchartstuart.butchart@birdlife.orgBirdlife International
Jean F. Cochranejcochrane@boreal.orgUS Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS)
Daniel F. Doakddoak@uwyo.eduUniversity of Wyoming
Nick Dulvydulvy@sfu.caSimon Fraser University
Elizabeth E. Holmeseli.holmes@noaa.govNOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)
Jeffrey A. Hutchingsjeff.hutchings@dal.caDalhousie University
Douglas A. Keinathdkeinath@uwyo.eduUniversity of Wyoming
David A. University
Robert Lacyrlacy@ix.netcom.comChicago Zoological Society
Georgina of Zoology, Zoological Society of London
Marta Nammackmarta.nammack@noaa.govNOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Headquarters
Michael K. Schwartzmkschwartz@fs.fed.usUSDA Forest Service
Andrew O. Sheltonole.shelton@noaa.govUniversity of California, Santa Cruz
Robin S. Waplesrobin.waples@noaa.govNOAA, Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Ben Society of London

Products: Publications, Reports, Datasets, Presentations, Visualizations

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Dissertation or Thesis d'Eon-Eggertson, Faye. 2012. Resource and Environmental Management, graduate student thesis for Faye d’Eon Eggertson, Supervised by Professors R Peterman and NK Dulvy, Simon Fraser University.
Journal Article d'Eon-Eggertson, Faye; Dulvy, Nick; Peterman, Randall M. 2015. Reliable identification of declining populations in an uncertain world. Conservation Letters. Vol: 8(2). Pages 86-96. (Online version)
Presentations Dulvy, Nick. 2012. What is the global status of fisheries? Let's ask the sharks. University of British Columbia, Fisheries Centre Seminar Series, December 2012.
Journal Article Greenwald, Noah; Ando, Amy W.; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Tschirhart, John. 2014. Comment on the Endangered Species Act at 40. Nature. Vol: 504. Pages 369-370. (Online version)
Journal Article Hutchings, Jeffrey A.; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Collen, Ben; Schwartz, Michael K.; Waples, Robin S. 2012. Red flags: Correlates of impaired species recovery. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. Vol: 27(10). Pages 542-546. (Online version)
Journal Article Keith, David A.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Butchart, Stuart H.M.; Collen, Ben; Dulvy, Nick; Holmes, Elizabeth E.; Hutchings, Jeffrey A.; Keinath, Douglas A.; Schwartz, Michael K.; Shelton, Andrew O.; Waples, Robin S. 2015. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa. Biological Conservation. Vol: 192. Pages 247-257. (Abstract) (Online version)
Journal Article Shelton, Andrew O.; Munch, Stephan B.; Keith, David A.; Mangel, Marc. 2012. Maternal age, fecundity, egg quality, and recruitment: Linking stock structure to recruitment using an age-structured Ricker model. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences. Vol: 69. Pages 1631-1641. (Online version)
Journal Article Shelton, Andrew O.; Hutchings, Jeffrey A.; Waples, Robin S.; Keith, David A.; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Dulvy, Nick. 2015. Maternal age effects on Atlantic cod recruitment and implications for future population trajectories. ICES Journal of Marine Science. Vol: 76(6). Pages 1769-1778. (Abstract) (Online version)
Journal Article Waples, Robin S.; Nammack, Marta; Cochrane, Jean F.; Hutchings, Jeffrey A. 2013. A tale of two acts: Endangered species listing practices in Canada and the United States. BioScience. Vol: 63(9). Pages 723-734. (Online version)
Journal Article Ward, Eric J.; Holmes, Elizabeth E.; Thorson, James T.; Collen, Ben. 2014. Complexity is costly: A meta-analysis of parametric and non-parametric methods for short-term population forecasting. Oikos. Vol: 123(6). Pages 652-661. (Online version)
Journal Article Westwood, Alana; Reuchlin-Hugenholtz, Emilie; Keith, David M. 2014. Re-defining recovery: A generalized framework for assessing species recovery. Biological Conservation. Vol: 172. Pages 155-162. (Online version)
"Red flags and species endangerment: Meta-analytical development of criteria for assessing extinction risk" is project ID: 12559