The effects of global change on malaria transmission: A meta-analysis (Luce Fellows)

Principal Investigators:

Erin A. Mordecai

How will changes in temperature and precipitation affect malaria transmission? This question has been at the forefront of climate change research for the last decade, yet predictions are still remarkably variable and uncertain. This working group aims to assess the current state of climate-driven malaria research and to combine statistical and biological modeling approaches in novel ways. Our goal is to synthesize data from laboratory and field studies with a malaria transmission model, and to use this model to predict when changes in rainfall or... more

Participants and Meetings

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Meeting2nd—4th February 2011Participant List  
Meeting9th—11th May 2012Participant List  

Participant Contact Information

Christian Balzer-Rogerschristian.balzer [at] lifesci.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Tal Ben-Horintbenhorin [at] bren.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Emily de Mooremdemoor [at] gmail.comUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Leah R. Johnsonlrjohnson0 [at] gmail.comUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Kevin D. Laffertylafferty [at] lifesci.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Amy McNallymcnally [at] geog.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Erin A. Mordecaiemordeca [at] stanford.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Krijn P. Paaijmanskpp2 [at] psu.eduPennsylvania State University
Samraat Pawarmhasoba [at] gmail.comUniversity of California, Los Angeles
Sadie J. Ryansjryan [at] ufl.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Thomas C. Smiththsmith [at] lifesci.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara

Products: Publications, Reports, Datasets, Presentations, Visualizations

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Presentations Johnson, Leah R.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Mordecai, Erin A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J.; McNally, Amy; Lafferty, Kevin D. 2013. Effects of uncertainty in temperature dependencies in physiological responses on predictions of R0 for malaria: A Bayesian approach. Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease (EEID), 11th Annual Workshop and Conference, Penn State University, PA, May 20-23, 2013.
Presentations Johnson, Leah R. 2013. Inference for mechanistic models: Case studies in ecology. University of South Florida, Florida, Feb 2013.
Presentations Johnson, Leah R. 2013. Inference for mechanistic models: Case studies in ecology. UNC Greensboro, North Carolina, Mar 2013.
Presentations Johnson, Leah R. 2013. Inference for mechanistic models: Case studies in ecology. Mathematical Biosciences Institute Visitor seminar series, Ohio State, Columbus, OH, 2013.
Book Chapter Johnson, Leah R.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; McNally, Amy; Mordecai, Erin A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J. 2014. Mapping the distribution of malaria: Current approaches and future directions. Spatial and temporal dynamics of infectious diseases. Vol: Chen, D.. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.. Hoboken, New Jersey.
Journal Article Johnson, Leah R.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Lafferty, Kevin D.; McNally, Amy; Mordecai, Erin A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J. 2015. Understanding uncertainty in temperature effects on vector-borne disease: A Bayesian approach. Ecology. Vol: 96(1). Pages 203-213. (Online version)
Journal Article Mordecai, Erin A.; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Johnson, Leah R.; Balzer-Rogers, Christian; Ben-Horin, Tal; de Moor, Emily; McNally, Amy; Pawar, Samraat; Ryan, Sadie J.; Smith, Thomas C.; Lafferty, Kevin D. 2013. Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. Ecology Letters. Vol: 16(1). Pages 22-30. (Online version)
Presentations Paaijmans, Krijn P. 2012. Effects of temperature on host-parasite interactions. University of Alberta, Department of Biological Sciences, Canada, 2012.
Presentations Paaijmans, Krijn P. 2012. Effects of temperature on host-parasite interactions. Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Spain, 2012.
Presentations Paaijmans, Krijn P. 2013. Daily temperature variation and the fitness of mosquitoes and parasites: Implications for transmission in a changing world. Entomological Society of America Annual meeting, 2013.
Presentations Paaijmans, Krijn P. 2013. Relevant temperature for determining disease risk. Catalan Institute for Climate Sciences, Spain, 2013.
Presentations Pawar, Samraat. 2011. Predicting how body size, habitat structure, and environmental temperature shape community structure and dynamics. University of New Mexico, Department of Biology, Albuquerque, NM, Jun 2011.
Presentations Pawar, Samraat. 2011. Scaling up the effects of body size and environmental temperature from individuals to communities. Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Panama City, Panama, Nov 2011.
Presentations Pawar, Samraat. 2012. Integrating consumer-resource interactions into the Metabolic Theory of Ecology. Gordon Research Conference (GRC) on the Metabolic Basis of Ecology, University of New England, Biddeford, Maine, Jul 2012.
Presentations Pawar, Samraat. 2012. Scaling up effects of physiology, temperature and habitat structure on species interactions: From individuals to communities. University of Chicago, Department of Ecology and Evolution, Chicago, May 2012.
Presentations Pawar, Samraat. 2013. A mechanistic framework for scaling up systems biology from individuals to communities. University of South Florida, Florida, Feb 2013.
Presentations Pawar, Samraat. 2013. A mechanistic framework for scaling up systems biology from individuals to communities. Monash University, Feb 2013.
Presentations Pawar, Samraat. 2013. Scaling up systems biology from individuals to communities. University of Rochester, Jan 2013.
Presentations Ryan, Sadie J. 2013. Climate change and malaria: A hot topic that is cooler than you think. Conversations in Global Health, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Jan 25, 2013.
Presentations Ryan, Sadie J. 2013. Shifting ecologies of vector-borne diseases: Novel emergence, recent resurgence, and the usual suspects. Tipping Points for Action: 5th annual invasive species workshop, Alverna Heights, Fayetteville, NY, 2013.
Journal Article Ryan, Sadie J.; McNally, Amy; Johnson, Leah R.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Lafferty, Kevin D. 2014. Rising suitability, declining severity: Climate change and shifting malaria transmissibility in Africa. Cornell University Library. (Online version)
Journal Article Ryan, Sadie J.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Johnson, Leah R. 2015. Malaria control and senescence: The importance of accounting for the pace and shape of aging in wild mosquitoes. Ecosphere. Vol: 6(9). (Online version)
Journal Article Ryan, Sadie J.; McNally, Amy; Johnson, Leah R.; Mordecai, Erin A.; Ben-Horin, Tal; Paaijmans, Krijn P.; Lafferty, Kevin D. 2015. Mapping physiological suitability limits for malaria in Africa under climate change. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. Vol: 15(12). Pages 1-8. (Online version)
Journal Article Taylor, Rachel A.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Brashares, Justin S.; Johnson, Leah R. 2015. Hunting, food subsidies, and mesopredator release: The dynamics of crop-raiding baboons in a managed landscape. Ecology. Vol: 97(4). Pages 951-960. (Online version)
"The effects of global change on malaria transmission: A meta-analysis (Luce Fellows)" is project ID: 12636