Ocean tipping points (formerly Ecosystem thresholds and indicators for marine spatial planning)

Principal Investigators:

Carrie V. Kappel, Benjamin S. Halpern, and Kimberly A. Selkoe

The Ocean Tipping Points collaborative research project seeks to understand and characterize tipping points in ocean ecosystems. This idea is not new. Many scientists before us have studied the complex dynamics of marine ecosystems, highlighting the potential for rapid, dramatic changes in ocean conditions. However, past science has done little to influence the way we manage marine ecosystems. We have an opportunity to change this, as promising new science converges with a paradigm shift toward ecosystem-based management of our coasts and oceans.... more

Participants and Meetings

Working Group Participants
ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group7th—10th October 2013Participant List  
Working Group5th—7th November 2013Participant List  
Working Group20th—23rd May 2014Participant List  
Working Group10th—12th June 2014Participant List  
Working Group1st—5th December 2014Participant List  
Working Group18th—19th May 2015Participant List  
Visitor9th July—30th September 2015Participant List  
Working Group28th September—1st October 2015Participant List  

Participant Contact Information

Adina Abelesabeles [at] stanford.eduCenter for Ocean Solutions
Willow Battistawillowbe [at] gmail.comEnvironmental Defense Fund
Meaghan Calcarimeaghan.calcari [at] moore.orgGordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Margaret Caldwellmegc [at] law.stanford.eduStanford University
Larry B. Crowderlarry.crowder [at] stanford.eduStanford University
Nora Deansndeans [at] stanford.eduStanford University
Ashley L. Erickson Reinemanashleye1 [at] stanford.eduStanford University
Rod M. Fujitarfujita [at] edf.orgEnvironmental Defense Fund
Benjamin S. Halpernhalpern [at] bren.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Mary Hunsickermary.hunsicker [at] noaa.govUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Carrie V. Kappelkappel [at] nceas.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Ryan P. Kellyrpk [at] stanford.eduStanford University
John N. Kittingerjkittinger [at] gmail.comStanford University
Phillip Levinphil.levin [at] noaa.govNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Megan E. Machmmach [at] stanford.eduStanford University
Rebecca Martonermartone [at] stanford.eduCenter for Ocean Solutions
Lindley Measelamease [at] stanford.eduCenter for Ocean Solutions
Jameal Samhourijameal.samhouri [at] noaa.govNOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)
Courtney E. Scarboroughscarborough [at] nceas.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Kimberly A. Selkoeselkoe [at] nceas.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Adrian C. Stieradrian.stier [at] gmail.comNOAA, Northwest Fisheries Science Center
Molly Troupmolly.troup [at] gmail.comUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Crow Whitecwhite31 [at] calpoly.eduCalifornia Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo
Kate Wingkate.wing [at] moore.orgGordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Thorsten Blencknerthorsten.blenckner [at] su.seStockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Center
Stephen R. Carpentersrcarpen [at] facstaff.wisc.eduUniversity of Wisconsin, Madison
Timothy E. Essingtonessing [at] u.washington.eduUniversity of Washington
James A. Estesjestes [at] ucsc.eduUniversity of California, Santa Cruz
John Lynhamlynham [at] hawaii.eduUniversity of Hawaii, Mānoa
Nathan J. Mantuanate.mantua [at] noaa.govNOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)
Anne Salomonanne.salomon [at] sfu.caSimon Fraser University
George Sugiharagsugihara [at] ucsd.eduUniversity of California, San Diego
Philip B. Williamsp.williams [at] pwa-ltd.comPhilip Williams And Associates, Ltd.
Joy Zedlerjbzedler [at] wisc.eduUniversity of Wisconsin
Meaghan Calcari Campbellmeaghan.calcari.campbell [at] moore.orgGordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Mary Donovanmdono [at] hawaii.eduUniversity of Hawaii, M?noa
Melissa Foleymmfoley [at] stanford.eduCenter for Ocean Solutions
Alan M. Friedlanderfriedlan [at] hawaii.eduUniversity of Hawaii, Mānoa
Jamison Govejamison.gove [at] noaa.govNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Kirsten Olesonkoleson [at] hawaii.eduUniversity of Hawaii, M?noa
Mary Turnipseedmary.turnipseed [at] moore.orgGordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Lisa M. Weddinglwedding [at] stanford.eduCenter for Ocean Solutions
Gareth Williamsg1williams [at] ucsd.eduUniversity of California, San Diego
Carl Boettigercboettig [at] gmail.comUniversity of California, Santa Cruz
Bruno Nkuiyarobenybruno [at] ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Jean-Baptiste Jouffrayjean-baptiste.jouffray [at] su.seStockholm University
Kristi Boosmankboosman7 [at] stanford.eduStanford University
Kristen Weisskristenw [at] stanford.eduCenter for Ocean Solutions
Heather Dennisheathden [at] gmail.comUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Kim Falinskikimfalinski [at] gmail.comUniversity of Hawaii, Manoa
Nick Grahamnick.graham [at] jcu.edu.auJames Cook University
Kendra Karrkkarr [at] edf.orgUniversity of California, Santa Cruz
Joey Leckyjlecky [at] hawaii.eduUniversity of Hawaii, Manoa
Philip Loringphil.loring [at] usask.caUniversity of Alaska, Fairbanks
Melissa Poempoe [at] uw.eduUniversity of Washington
Nicole Sartonsarto [at] edf.orgEnvironmental Defense Fund

Products: Publications, Reports, Datasets, Presentations, Visualizations

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Battista, Willow; Kelly, Ryan P.; Erickson Reineman, Ashley L.; Fujita, Rod M. 2016. A comprehensive method for assessing marine resource governance: case study in Kane'ohe Bay, Hawaii. Coastal Management. Vol: 44. Pages 295-332. (Abstract)
Presentations Battista, Willow. 2016. Reducing illegal fishing using behavior change interventions. ICES MSEAS, Brest France 6-1-16.
Presentations Donovan, Mary. 2016. Ecosystem regimes and resilience of Hawaiian coral reefs. International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS), Honolulu Hawaii.
Presentations Donovan, Mary. 2016. Tipping points and ecosystem based management in Hawai'i. International Marine Conservation Congress (IMCC), ST. John's Newfoundland 7-31-16.
Presentations Erickson Reineman, Ashley L. 2016. Ecosystem-based management (EBM) roundtable. AGU Ocean Sciences in New Orleans.
Presentations Erickson Reineman, Ashley L. 2016. Highlighting and expanding opportunities for application of tipping points science within existing US law and policy. International Marine Conservation Congress (IMCC), ST. John's Newfoundland 7-31-16.
Presentations Falinski, Kim. 2016. Development of a subtropical, volcanic geology-specific model for sediment delivery in the Hawaiian Islands. International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS), Honolulu Hawaii.
Journal Article Foley, Melissa; Martone, Rebecca; Fox, Michael D.; Kappel, Carrie V.; Mease, Lindley; Erickson Reineman, Ashley L.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Taylor, Peter; Scarborough, Courtney E. 2015. Using ecological thresholds to inform resource management: current options and future possibilities. Frontiers in Marine Science. Vol: 2. (Abstract)
Journal Article Hunsicker, Mary; Kappel, Carrie V.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Scarborough, Courtney E.; Mease, Lindley; Amrhein, Alisan. 2015. Characterizing driver-response relationships in marine pelagic ecosystems for improved ocean management. Ecological Society of America.
Presentations Hunsicker, Mary. 2015. Identifying leading indicators of shifts in marine ecosystem. Coastal and Estuarine Research Federation, Portland, OR.
Presentations Hunsicker, Mary. 2016. Identifying leading indicators of shifts in marine ecosystem. American Fisheries Society Meeting, Portland OR.
Presentations Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste. 2016. Disentangling the role of human and natural drivers of multiple reef regimes across the Hawaiian archipelago. International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS), Honolulu Hawaii.
Presentations Kappel, Carrie V. 2016. Ecoystem-based management (EBM) roundtable. AGU Ocean Sciences in New Orleans.
Presentations Kappel, Carrie V. 2016. Tackling ocean tipping points: an experiment in science-to-action. International Marine Conservation Congress (IMCC), ST. John's Newfoundland 8-3-16.
Journal Article Karr, Kendra; Fujita, Rod M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Kappel, Carrie V.; Crowder, Larry B.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Alcolado, Pedro M.; Rader, Douglas N. 2015. Thresholds in Caribbean coral reefs: implications for ecosystem-based fishery management. Journal of Applied Ecology. Vol: 52. Pages 402-412. (Abstract)
Journal Article Kelly, Ryan P.; Erickson Reineman, Ashley L.; Mease, Lindley; Battista, Willow; Kittinger, John N.; Fujita, Rod M. 2014. Embracing thresholds for better environmental management. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 370(1659). Pages 20130276.
Presentations Lenton, Tim. 2016. The social and policy implications of climate tipping points. American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Conference, Washington D.C. 2-2-16.
Presentations Levin, Phillip. 2016. Can changes in the distribution of one fish lead to irreparable harm to a culture?. American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Conference, Washington D.C. 2-2-16.
Presentations Levin, Phillip. 2016. Ecoystem-based management (EBM) roundtable. AGU Ocean Sciences in New Orleans.
Presentations Levin, Phillip. 2016. Integrating the concept of tipping points into US Federal fisheries management. International Marine Conservation Congress (IMCC), ST. John's Newfoundland 7-31-16.
Journal Article Lynham, John; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Blenckner, Thorsten; Essington, Timothy E.; Estes, James A.; Hunsicker, Mary; Kappel, Carrie V.; Salomon, Anne; Scarborough, Courtney E.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Stier, Adrian C. 2017. Costly stakeholder participation creates inertia in marine ecosystems. Marine Policy. Vol: 76. Pages 122-129. (Abstract)
Presentations Martone, Rebecca. 2014. Embedding the science of tipping points into ocean management. PICES Annual Meeting, Yeosu, Korea, 12 October 2014. (Abstract)
Presentations Oleson, Kirsten. 2016. Predictive models and trade-off analysis for guiding cost-effective land-based management actions for conserving coral reefs. International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS), Honolulu Hawaii.
Presentations Poe, Melissa. 2016. Implications of spatial and temporal tipping points in herring populations on cultural practices and identity in Haida Gwaii, British Columbia. International Marine Conservation Congress (IMCC), ST. John's Newfoundland 7-31-16.
Presentations Poe, Melissa. 2016. The importance of Herring to social and cultural wellbeing in Haida Gwaii . Society for Applied Anthropology, Vancouver, British Columbia, CA.
Presentations Samhouri, Jameal. 2016. The next generation of ecosystem based fishery management. American Fisheries Society Meeting, Portland OR.
Presentations Scarborough, Courtney E. 2015. Gwaii Haanas rapid marine indicator assessment. MaPP EBM Indicators Workshop, Vancouver, Canada.
Journal Article Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Blenckner, Thorsten; Caldwell, Margaret; Crowder, Larry B.; Erickson Reineman, Ashley L.; Essington, Timothy E.; Estes, James A.; Fujita, Rod M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Hunsicker, Mary; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kelly, Ryan P.; Kittinger, John N.; Levin, Phillip; Lynham, John; Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca; Mease, Lindley; Salomon, Anne; Samhouri, Jameal; Scarborough, Courtney E.; Stier, Adrian C.; White, Crow; Zedler, Joy. 2015. Principles for managing marine ecosystems prone to tipping points. Ecological Society of America. Vol: 1(5). Pages 17. (Abstract) (Online version)
Presentations Selkoe, Kimberly A. 2016. Defining and maintaining a safe operating space for people and reefs in Hawaii. American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Conference, Washington D.C. 2-2-16.
Presentations Selkoe, Kimberly A. 2016. The science and management of ecosystem tipping points. Australian Rivers Institute Seminar Series in Queensland, Australia.
Journal Article Stier, Adrian C.; Samhouri, Jameal; Novak, Mark; Marshall, Kristin N; Ward, Eric J.; Holt, Robert D.; Levin, Phillip. 2016. Ecosystem context and historical contingency in apex predator recoveries. Science Advances. Vol: 2. (Abstract)
Journal Article Stier, Adrian C.; Samhouri, Jameal; Gray, Steven A.; Martone, Rebecca; Mach, Megan E.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Kappel, Carrie V.; Scarborough, Courtney E.; Levin, Phillip. 2016. Integrating expert perceptions into food web conservation and management. Conservation Letters. (Online version)
Presentations Stier, Adrian C. 2016. No smoking gun? The potential roles of people, place, and environment in the loss of a portfolio effect . International Marine Conservation Congress (IMCC), ST. John's Newfoundland 7-31-16.
Presentations Stier, Adrian C. 2016. The value of information: adaptive monitoring and trade off between monitoring costs and precision in ecosystem assessment. American Fisheries Society Meeting, Portland OR.
Presentations Thorpe, Hilary. 2016. Incorporating tipping points science into decision-making takes relationships and time. International Marine Conservation Congress (IMCC), ST. John's Newfoundland 7-31-16.
Presentations White, Crow. 2016. Tradeoff analysis for balancing multiple objectives in ocean management. International Coral Reef Symposium (ICRS), Honolulu Hawaii.
"Ocean tipping points (formerly Ecosystem thresholds and indicators for marine spatial planning)" is project ID: 12670