Spatial ecology of infectious disease

Principal Investigators:

Leslie A. Real, and Andrew P. Dobson

The ecology of infectious diseases is receiving increased attention from both public health officials and traditional population biologists. It is clear that the ability to predict and forecast disease outbreaks will require a greater understanding of spatial dynamics and the analysis of spatial patterns of spread. The goal of this Working Group is to analyze large spatial data sets of disease occurrence and spread drawn from natural, agricultural, and public health databases. By comparing the spatial ecology of disease across these different systems... more

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Participants and Meetings

Activity	Dates	Further Information
Graduate Student	1st September 1999—31st August 2001	Participant List
Working Group	7th—11th February 2000	Participant List
Working Group	11th—14th October 2000	Participant List
Postdoctoral Fellow	5th December 2000—4th December 2001	Participant List
Working Group	22nd—27th October 2001	Participant List
Working Group	25th—29th March 2002	Participant List

Participant Contact Information

Brendan Lucey	blucey@emory.edu	Emory University
Ottar N. Bjornstad	onb1@psu.edu	University of California, Santa Barbara
Jeremy J. Burdon	jeremy.burdon@pi.csiro.au	Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
James E. Childs	jameschilds@comcast.net	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Andrew P. Dobson	dobber@princeton.edu	Princeton University
Gregory E. Glass	geglass@hotmail.com	Johns Hopkins University
Kenneth McGwire	kenm@dri.edu	Desert Research Institute
James N. Mills	jum0@cdc.gov	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Richard S. Ostfeld	rostfeld@ecostudies.org	Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies
Mercedes Pascual	pascual@umich.edu	University of Maryland
Alison G. Power	agp4@cornell.edu	Cornell University
Leslie A. Real	lreal@biology.emory.edu	Emory University
David L. Smith	smitdave@mail.nih.gov	University of Maryland, College Park
Jonathan Swinton	js229@cam.ac.uk	University of Cambridge
Lance Waller	lwaller@sph.emory.edu	Emory University
Mark L. Wilson	wilsonml@umich.edu	University of Michigan
Brett Goodwin	goodwinB@ecostudies.org	Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies
Bryan T. Grenfell	grenfell@princeton.edu	University of Cambridge
Drew Harvell	cdh5@cornell.edu	Unknown
Andrew S. Hopkins	amh7@cdc.gov	APHL-NCID/CDC
Shane A. Richards	s.a.richards@durham.ac.uk	Unknown
Kent Wagoner	kew7@cdc.gov	Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Products: Publications, Reports, Datasets, Presentations, Visualizations

Type	Products of NCEAS Research
Journal Article	Childs, James E.; Curns, A.; Dey, M.; Real, Leslie A.; Feinstein, L.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Krebs, J. W. 2000. Predicting the local dynamics of epizootic rabies among raccoons in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol: 97. Pages 13666-13671.
Journal Article	Childs, James E.; Curns, A.; Dey, M.; Real, Leslie A.; Rupprecht, Charles; Krebs, J. W. 2001. Rabies epizootics among raccoons vary along a north-south gradient in the eastern United States. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. Vol: 1. Pages 253-267.
Journal Article	Goodwin, Brett; Ostfeld, Richard S.; Schauber, Eric M. 2001. Spatiotemporal variation in a Lyme disease host and vector: Black-legged ticks on white-footed mice. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. Vol: 1(2). Pages 129-138.
Journal Article	Gordon, E. R.; Curns, A.; Krebs, J. W.; Rupprecht, Charles; Real, Leslie A.; Childs, James E. 2004. Temporal dynamics of rabies in a wildlife host and the risk of cross-species transmission. Epidemiology and Infection. Vol: 132. Pages 515-524.
Journal Article	Lucey, Brendan; Smith, David L.; Russell, Colin; Wilson, Mark L.; Long, A.; Waller, Lance; Childs, James E.; Real, Leslie A. 2002. Spatiotemporal analysis of epizootic raccoon rabies propagation in Connecticut, 1991-1995. Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases. Vol: 2. Pages 77-86.
Journal Article	Russell, Colin; Smith, David L.; Waller, Lance; Childs, James E.; Real, Leslie A. 2004. A priori prediction of disease invasion dynamics in a novel environment. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 271(1534). Pages 21-25. (Online version)
Journal Article	Smith, David L.; Lucey, Brendan; Waller, Lance; Childs, James E.; Real, Leslie A. 2002. Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol: 99. Pages 3668-3672.
Journal Article	Waller, Lance; Smith, David L.; Childs, James E.; Real, Leslie A. 2003. Monte Carlo assessments of goodness-of-fit for ecological simulation models. Ecological Modelling. Vol: 164. Pages 49-63.