Ecological Forecasting

Principal Investigators:

David Tilman

We will use both extrapolations of historical data and underlying driving mechanisms to forecast regional and global ecological conditions in the years 2050 and 2100. We will base extrapolations on 30 to 100 yearlong time series of (1) agrochemical inputs, (2) agricultural nitrogen and phosphorus loading, (3) land use patterns, (4) exotic invasive species, and (5) marine fisheries. In addition, by determining the relationships between these variables and human population and consumption trends, we will make independent projections of the likely... more

Participants and Meetings

ActivityDatesFurther Information
Workshop17th—19th May 1999Participant List  

Participant Contact Information

Carla M. D'Antoniodantonio@es.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Berkeley
Andrew P. Dobsondobber@princeton.eduPrinceton University
Joseph E. Fargionejfargione@tnc.orgUniversity of Minnesota
Robert W. Howarthrwh2@cornell.eduCornell University
David W. Schindlerd.schindler@ualberta.caUniversity of Alberta
William H. Schlesingerschlesin@duke.eduDuke University
Daniel S. Simberloffdsimberloff@utk.eduUniversity of Tennessee
Deborah SwackhamerUniversity of Minnesota
David Tilmantilman@umn.eduUniversity of Minnesota
Brian WolffUniversity of Minnesota

Products: Publications, Reports, Datasets, Presentations, Visualizations

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Data Set D'Antonio, Carla M. 2008. Ecological Forecasting Trade Data. (Online version)
Journal Article Levine, Jonathan M.; D'Antonio, Carla M. 2003. Forecasting biological invasions with increasing international trade. Conservation Biology. Vol: 17(1). Pages 322-326. (Online version)
Journal Article Tilman, David; Fargione, Joseph E.; Wolff, Brian; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Dobson, Andrew P.; Howarth, Robert W.; Schindler, David W.; Schlesinger, William H.; Simberloff, Daniel S.; Swackhamer, Deborah. 2001. Forecasting agriculturally driven global environmental change. Science. Vol: 292. Pages 281-284. (Online version)
Journal Article Tilman, David; Cassman, Kenneth G.; Matson, Pamela; Naylor, Roz; Polasky, Stephen. 2002. Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices. Nature. Vol: 418. Pages 671-677. (Online version)
"Ecological Forecasting" is project ID: 2220