Scenarios of future biodiversity: Causes, patterns and consequences
Principal Investigators:
F. Stuart Chapin, and Osvaldo E. SalaThe workshop will consist of a 4-day meeting in which we discuss and refine scenarios of biodiversity change that have been prepared in advance by each participant. Each participant will be supplied with summaries of currently published IPCC scenarios of changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and land use for the next century. These scenarios include best-case, worst-case, and business-as-usual scenarios. We will also supply maps of natural vegetation composition under current climate and vegetation that is projected to be in equilibrium... more
The workshop will consist of a 4-day meeting in which we discuss and refine scenarios of biodiversity change that have been prepared in advance by each participant. Each participant will be supplied with summaries of currently published IPCC scenarios of changes in climate, atmospheric composition, and land use for the next century. These scenarios include best-case, worst-case, and business-as-usual scenarios. We will also supply maps of natural vegetation composition under current climate and vegetation that is projected to be in equilibrium with a 2X CO2 world. This information will be sent to participants in late March prior to the meeting. We assume that there will be active discussion at the meeting about pitfalls and insights into how these scenarios can be made as credible as possible. We will ask each person to provide a written chapter by September following the meeting.
There will be two major sections to the workshop and the final product: (1) a summary of the major drivers of changes in biodiversity and (2) a biome-by-biome analysis of the probable changes in biodiversity and their consequences for ecosystem functioning. In dealing with consequences we will encourage participants to consider both ecological consequences for functioning of natural communities and economic and social consequences for human society. Detailed outlines of each chapter must be available to exchange among participants at the meeting. Final chapters must be completed by 1 October 1996. collapse
Contacts at NCEAS
Travel and Reimbursements
Scientific Programmer/Analyst
scicomp [at] nceas.ucsb.edu
(805) 893-7554
Computing
help [at] nceas.ucsb.edu
Full Directory
Visiting NCEAS
Taxis
- Lucky Cab (805) 968 - 5020
- Gold Cab Company (805) 685-9797
- Tell them you are from UCSB Ecology Center
- and receive a discounted rate ($40-45 w/ tip)
Additional Info
Participants and Meetings
| Activity | Dates | Further Information |
|---|---|---|
| Workshop | 2nd—5th June 1996 | Participant List |
Participant Contact Information
| Juan Armesto | Universidad de Chile | |
| Eric L. Berlow | ericberlow@gmail.com | Oregon State University |
| Janine Bloomfield | janineb@edf.org | Environmental Defense Fund |
| F. Stuart Chapin | fschapiniii@alaska.edu | University of California, Berkeley |
| Frank W. Davis | frank.davis@nceas.ucsb.edu | University of California, Santa Barbara |
| Rodolfo Dirzo | urania@miranda.ecologia.unam.mx | Centro de Ecología UNAM |
| Diana W. Freckman | Colorado State University | |
| Laura F. Huenneke | laura.huenneke@nau.edu | New Mexico State University |
| Froydis Ihle | Froydis.Ihle@rivm.nl | National Institute for Public Health and the Environment |
| Robert B. Jackson | jackson@duke.edu | University of Texas, Austin |
| Ann P. Kinzig | kinzig@asu.edu | Princeton University |
| Rik Leemans | rik.leemans@wur.nl | National Institute for Public Health and the Environment |
| David M. Lodge | David.M.Lodge.1@nd.edu | University of Notre Dame |
| Jay R. Malcolm | jay.malcolm@utoronto.ca | University of Florida |
| Martin Oesterheld | oester@cnea.edu.ar | Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| Osvaldo E. Sala | osvaldo_sala@brown.edu | Universidad de Buenos Aires |
| Martin Sykes | martin@planteco.lu.se | Lund University |
| Brian Walker | brian.walker@dwe.csiro.au | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) |
| Marilyn D. Walker | University of Colorado |
Products: Publications, Reports, Datasets, Presentations, Visualizations
| Type | Products of NCEAS Research |
|---|---|
| Book | Alcamo, J.; Leemans, Rik; Kreileman, E. 1998. Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century: Results from the IMAGE 2.1 Model. Elsevier. Oxford. |
| Report or White Paper | Chapin, F. Stuart. 1996. Biodiversity Scenarios workshop status report. (Online version) |
| Book | Chapin, F. Stuart; Sala, Osvaldo E.; Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth. 2001. Global Biodiversity in a Changing Environment: Scenarios for the 21st Century. Springer-Verlag. New York. |
| Book Chapter | Cramer, Wolfgang; Leemans, Rik; Schulze, E. D.; Bondeau, Alberte; Scholes, Robert J. 1998. Data needs and limitations for broad-scale ecosystem modelling. Edited by Walker, B.; Steffen, W. L.; Canadell, J.; Ingram, J.. The Terrestrial Biosphere and Global Change: Implications for Natural and Managed Ecosystems. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge. Pages 88-105. |
| Book Chapter | Dirzo, Rodolfo. In press. Tropical forests: Biodiversity, ecological processes and global environmental change. Edited by Chapin, F.; Sala, O.. Future Scenarios of Climate Change. Elsevier. |
| Book Chapter | Leemans, Rik. 1997. Effects of global change on agricultural land use: Scaling up from physiological processes to ecosystem dynamics. Edited by Jackson, L.. Ecology in Agriculture. Academic Press. San Diego, CA. Pages 415-452. |
| Book Chapter | Lodge, David M. In press. Responses of lake biodiversity to global changes. Edited by Sala, O. E.; Chapin, F. S.. Future Scenarios of Global Change. Elsevier. |
| Presentations | Sala, Osvaldo E. 1998. Biodiversity scenarios. The Earth's Changing Land: GCTE-LUCC Open Science Conference on Global Change. Barcelona, Spain. |
| Book Chapter | Sala, Osvaldo E.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Gardner, Robert H.; Lauenroth, William; Mooney, Harold A.; Ramakrishnan, P. S. 1998. Global change, biodiversity and ecological complexity. Edited by Walker, B. H.; Steffen, W. L.; Canadell, J.; Ingram, J. S. I.. The Terrestrial Biosphere and Global Change: Implications for Natural and Managed Ecosystems. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge. Pages 304-328. |
| Journal Article | Sala, Osvaldo E.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Armesto, Juan; Berlow, Eric L.; Bloomfield, Janine; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Huber-Sannwald, Elisabeth; Huenneke, Laura F.; Jackson, Robert B.; Kinzig, Ann P.; Leemans, Rik; Lodge, David M.; Mooney, Harold A.; Oesterheld, Martin; Poff, N. LeRoy; Sykes, Martin; Walker, Brian; Walker, Marilyn D.; Wall, Diana H. 2000. Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100. Science. Vol: 287. Pages 1770-1774. |
| Journal Article | Walker, Brian; Steffen, Will. 1997. An overview of the implications of global change for natural and managed terrestrial ecosystems. Conservation Ecology (Online). Vol: 1(2). (Online version) |
| Report or White Paper | Walker, Brian; Steffen, Will. 1997. A synthesis of GCTE and related research. Executive Summary. IGBP Secretariat. |
| Book | Walker, Brian; Steffen, Will; Canadell, Josep G.; Ingram, John. 1998. The terrestrial biosphere and global change: Implications for natural and managed ecosystems. A Synthesis of GCTE and related research. Cambridge University Press. London. |
| Book Chapter | Wall, Diana H.; Adams, G.; Parsons, A. N. 2001. Soil biodiversity. Edited by Chapin, F. S.; Sala, O. E.. Global Biodiversity in a Changing Environment: Scenarios for the 21st Century. Springer. |