Seasonality and the population dynamics of infectious diseases
Principal Investigators:
Mercedes Pascual, and Andrew P. DobsonSeasonal variation takes many forms in the natural world. All of us notice the annual cycles in temperature, day length, and rainfall, and these have profound effects on rates of resource production and availability that plants and animals respond to in order to modify their reproduction and maintenance schedules. These regular cycles impose constraints and create opportunities for transmission of infectious diseases. Humans also superimpose seasonal processes onto their lives in a way that creates opportunities for infectious diseases; for example... more
Seasonal variation takes many forms in the natural world. All of us notice the annual cycles in temperature, day length, and rainfall, and these have profound effects on rates of resource production and availability that plants and animals respond to in order to modify their reproduction and maintenance schedules. These regular cycles impose constraints and create opportunities for transmission of infectious diseases. Humans also superimpose seasonal processes onto their lives in a way that creates opportunities for infectious diseases; for example school semesters and annual vacations. This working group will examine the different ways in which seasonal variation in population size, contact rates and the survival of free-living infectious stages modifies the population dynamics of infectious diseases. The working group will bring together biologists, epidemiologists and mathematicians all of who have worked on different aspects of these problems. The workshop is particularly relevant to our understanding of the potential disease problems associated with climate change. collapse
Contacts at NCEAS
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Additional Info
Participants and Meetings
| Activity | Dates | Further Information |
|---|---|---|
| Working Group | 2nd—5th October 2003 | Participant List |
| Working Group | 26th—29th April 2004 | Participant List |
| Working Group | 14th—19th October 2004 | Participant List |
| Working Group | 2nd—8th June 2005 | Participant List |
Participant Contact Information
| Sonia Altizer | saltizer@uga.edu | Emory University |
| Ottar N. Bjornstad | onb1@psu.edu | Pennsylvania State University |
| Isabella Cattadori | imc3@psu.edu | University of Stirling |
| Giulio De Leo | deleo@stanford.edu | |
| Andrew P. Dobson | dobber@princeton.edu | Princeton University |
| Parviez R. Hosseini | hosseini@princeton.edu | Cornell University |
| Peter J. Hudson | pjh18@psu.edu | Pennsylvania State University |
| Bruce E. Kendall | kendall@bren.ucsb.edu | University of California, Santa Barbara |
| Aaron A. King | kingaa@umich.edu | University of Tennessee |
| Katia Koelle | katia.koelle@duke.edu | University of Michigan |
| Subhash R. Lele | slele@ualberta.ca | University of Alberta |
| Mercedes Pascual | pascual@umich.edu | University of Michigan |
| Xavier Rodo | xrodo@pcb.ub.es | University of Barcelona |
| Pejman Rohani | rohani@umich.edu | University of Georgia |
| Akiko Satake | asatake@princeton.edu | Pennsylvania State University |
| David Alonso | d.alonso@rug.nl | University of Michigan |
| Claudia Codeco | codeco@fiocruz.br | FIOCRUZ Oswaldo Cruz Foundation |
| Bryan T. Grenfell | grenfell@princeton.edu | University of Cambridge |
Products: Publications, Reports, Datasets, Presentations, Visualizations
| Type | Products of NCEAS Research |
|---|---|
| Journal Article | Altizer, Sonia; Dobson, Andrew P.; Hosseini, Parviez R.; Hudson, Peter J.; Pascual, Mercedes; Rohani, Pejman. 2006. Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecology Letters. Vol: 9. Pages 467-484. |
| Journal Article | Bolzoni, Luca; Dobson, Andrew P.; Gatto, Marino; De Leo, Giulio. 2008. Allometric scaling and seasonality in the epidemics of wildlife diseases. American Naturalist. Vol: 172(6). Pages 818-828. (Online version) |
| Journal Article | Cattadori, Isabella; Boag, B.; Bjornstad, Ottar N.; Cornell, S. J.; Hudson, Peter J. 2005. Peak shift and epidemiology in a seasonal host-nematode system. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 272. Pages 1163-1169. |
| Journal Article | Hosseini, Parviez R.; Dhondt, Andre A.; Dobson, Andrew P. 2004. Seasonality and wildlife disease: How seasonal birth, aggregation and variation in immunity affect the dynamics of Mycoplasma gallisepticum in house finches. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 271. Pages 2569-2577. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2005. Linking mechanistic models with epidemiological data: Parameter estimation in the face of incomplete information. SIAM Conference on Applications of Dynamical Systems, 26 May 2005. Snowbird, UT. |
| Presentations | King, Aaron A. 2005. Linking mechanistic models with epidemiological data: Parameter estimation in the face of incomplete information. ESA Annual Meeting Theory Symposium. Montreal, California. |
| Journal Article | Koelle, Katia; Pascual, Mercedes; Yunus, Md. 2005. Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 272. Pages 971-977. |
| Presentations | Koelle, Katia; Pascual, Mercedes; Yunus, Md. 2005. What goes around comes around: Serotype cycling in cholera dynamics. ESA Annual Meeting. Montreal, California. |
| Journal Article | Pascual, Mercedes; Dobson, Andrew P. 2005. Seasonal patterns of infectious diseases. PLoS Medicine. Vol: 2(1). Pages 18-20. |