Stochastic demography for an increasingly variable world

Principal Investigators:

William F. Morris, Catherine A. Pfister, and Shripad Tuljapurkar

Both the means and the variances of such important environmental variables as growing-season temperature and rainfall are projected to increase in many regions over the 21st century. While effects on organisms of changes in mean conditions have often been anticipated, the potential effects of increasing variability have been relatively neglected. We propose a Stochastic Demography Working Group to assess how increasing environmental variability is likely to impact populations of plants and animals. Using unpublished demographic data for a diverse... more

Participants and Meetings

Working Group Participants
ActivityDatesFurther Information
Working Group18th—22nd April 2004Participant List  
Working Group6th—10th October 2004Participant List  
Working Group4th—8th March 2005Participant List  
Working Group6th—9th November 2005Participant List  

Participant Contact Information

Carol Boggscboggs@stanford.eduStanford University
Mark Boycemark_boyce@ualberta.caUniversity of Alberta
Emilio M. Brunaembruna@ufl.eduUniversity of Florida
Tim College, London, Silwood Park Campus
Daniel F. Doakddoak@uwyo.eduUniversity of California, Santa Cruz
Jean-Michel Gaillardgaillard@biomserv.univ-lyon1.frUniversité Claude Bernard
Chirakkal V. Haridascharidas@stanford.eduStanford University
Carol C. Horvitzcarolhorvitz@miami.eduUniversity of Miami
Susan Kaliszkalisz@pitt.eduUniversity of Pittsburgh
Bruce E. Kendallkendall@bren.ucsb.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Tiffany M. Knighttknight@biology2.wustl.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara
Charlotte Leecharlotte.lee@stanford.eduStanford University
Eric S. Mengesemenges@archbold-station.orgArchbold Biological Station
William F. Morriswfmorris@duke.eduDuke University
Catherine A. Pfistercpfister@uchicago.eduUniversity of Chicago
Shripad Tuljapurkartulja@stanford.eduStanford University
Michael Dechen Mastrandreamikemas@stanford.eduStanford University
John M. Drakejdrake@uga.eduUniversity of California, Santa Barbara

Products: Publications, Reports, Datasets, Presentations, Visualizations

TypeProducts of NCEAS Research
Journal Article Boyce, Mark; Haridas, Chirakkal V.; Lee, Charlotte; Boggs, Carol; Bruna, Emilio M.; Coulson, Tim; Doak, Daniel F.; Drake, John M.; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Horvitz, Carol C.; Kalisz, Susan; Kendall, Bruce E.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Mastrandrea, Michael Dechen; Menges, Eric S.; Morris, William F.; Pfister, Catherine A.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad. 2006. Demography in an increasingly variable world. Trends in Ecology & Evolution. Vol: 21(3). Pages 141-148.
Data Set Horvitz, Carol C. 2006. Calathea ovandensis demography data. (Abstract) (Online version)
Data Set Koop, A. L. 2006. Ardisia elliptica (invasive exotic) demography in Florida: Light and moisture dependence. (Online version)
Journal Article McLoughlin, Philip D.; Boyce, Mark; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim. 2006. Lifetime reproductive success and density-dependent multi-variable resource selection. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences. Vol: 273. Pages 1449-1454.
Journal Article McLoughlin, Philip D.; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Bonenfant, C.; Messier, F.; Duncan, P.; Delorme, D.; Van Moorter, B.; Said, S.; Klein, F. 2007. Lifetime reproductive success and composition of the home range in a large herbivore. Ecology. Vol: 88(12). Pages 3192-3201.
Journal Article McLoughlin, Philip D.; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim. 2008. Cross-generational effects of habitat and density on life history in red deer. Ecology. Vol: 89(12). Pages 3317-3326. (Online version)
Presentations Morris, William F. 2005. Population consequences of increasing climatic variability, 11 March 2005. Biology Department, University of Montana.
Journal Article Morris, William F.; Pfister, Catherine A.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Haridas, Chirakkal V.; Boggs, Carol; Boyce, Mark; Bruna, Emilio M.; Church, Don R.; Coulson, Tim; Doak, Daniel F.; Forsyth, Stacey; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Horvitz, Carol C.; Kalisz, Susan; Kendall, Bruce E.; Knight, Tiffany M.; Lee, Charlotte; Menges, Eric S. 2008. Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability. Ecology. Vol: 89(1). Ecological Society of America. Pages 19-25.
Data Set Pascarella, John. 2006. Hurricane related demography of Ardisia escallonioides (FL) . (Abstract) (Online version)
"Stochastic demography for an increasingly variable world" is project ID: 8141