Ecological Forecasting (Hosted by NCEAS)

• James S. Clark

Abstract
This workshop will develop the science agenda for an initiative in Ecological Forecasting. Within this initiative we define Ecological Forecasting as the process of predicting the state of ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural capital based on scenarios for climate, changing atmosphere and nutrient cycles, and socioeconomic activities. Forecasts address areas ranging from regions to the globe and time horizons of 10 to 100 years. The unprecedented threats to human civilization posed by continuing deterioration of ecosystem services and rapid decline in biodiversity is the basis for ESA's decision to make Ecological Forecasting a research priority. We believe that planning and decision making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts. This first workshop is funded by the National Science Foundation to set a science agenda for Ecological Forecasting. The workshop will assess the readiness of our science to provide ecological forecasts for diverse types of ecosystems. It will identify the basic research questions that must be addressed in order to improve the state of the art. It will consider the mechanisms that might be effective in developing the needed research, such as novel ways of fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, focusing collaborations on ecological forecasting, and making the forecasts useful and informative to decision makers and the general public.