Dynamics of large mammalian herbivores in changing environments: Alternative modeling approaches

The world's populations of large herbivores have shown dramatically different dynamics during the last two decades. The abundance and distribution of some ungulate species has declined abruptly, while other species have become excessively abundant, and still others have shown complex, oscillatory dynamics. These patterns seem to result from a composite of influences, including those operating at global and local scales. Conventional population models are rooted in assumptions about steady state and do not adequately incorporate environmental variability. We propose a working group that will exploit data sets and expertise from different regions to develop new models of ungulate population dynamics, capable of accommodating the complexity of environmental interactions at different spatial and temporal scales.