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National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis

Project Description

An increasing number of examples of tipping points in ecosystems around the world have begun to raise concern among scientists and policymakers. In the oceans, diverse ecosystems ranging from reefs to estuaries to pelagic systems have undergone sudden, dramatic shifts. Changes in ocean climate, the abundance of key species, nutrients, and other factors drive these shifts, with resulting effects on ocean food webs, habitats, and ecosystem functions that have direct impacts on people’s livelihoods and well-being. Ocean tipping points may be cause for particular concern because they are often unexpected and can be very difficult, if not impossible, to reverse. Though there have been many critical advances in the science of ecosystem tipping points in recent years, there is still a dearth of practical tools and information available to managers to anticipate and respond to ecosystem shifts. Through this four-year study, the team will synthesize data on when, where, and how marine ecosystem shifts occur, and develop early warning indicators and management tools to begin to help managers anticipate, avoid or respond to tipping points. As ecologists, lawyers, and social scientists working in close partnership with managers, the team is tackling these problems from both the science side and from the policy and implementation side. Working with local managers, the team will implement ideas and test results in two case study locations: Haida Gwaii (in British Columbia) and Hawaii.
Working Group Participants

Principal Investigator(s)

Carrie V. Kappel, Benjamin S. Halpern, Kimberly A. Selkoe

Project Dates

Start: August 17, 2012

End: October 28, 2016

completed

Participants

Adina Abeles
Center for Ocean Solutions
Perf Auxilio
Zoological Society of London
Lindsay Aylesworth
Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (DFW)
Willow Battista
Environmental Defense Fund
Thorsten Blenckner
Stockholm University, Stockholm Resilience Center
Carl Boettiger
University of California, Santa Cruz
Kristi Boosman
Stanford University
Cindy Boyko
Council of Haida Nation
Michael D. Burner
Pacific Fishery Management Council
Meaghan Calcari
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Meaghan Calcari Campbell
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Iain Caldwell
University of Hawaii
Margaret Caldwell
Stanford University
Stephen R. Carpenter
University of Wisconsin, Madison
Jean Cowan
Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Council
Larry B. Crowder
Stanford University
Nora Deans
Stanford University
Heather Dennis
University of California, Santa Barbara
Steve Diggon
Coastal First Nations
Mary Donovan
University of Hawaii, M?noa
William Douros
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Ashley L. Erickson Reineman
Stanford University
Timothy E. Essington
University of Washington
James A. Estes
University of California, Santa Cruz
Kim Falinski
University of Hawaii, Manoa
Melissa Foley
Center for Ocean Solutions
Alan M. Friedlander
University of Hawaii, Mānoa
Rod M. Fujita
Environmental Defense Fund
Ernie Gladstone
Parks Canada
Jamison Gove
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Nicholas A. J. Graham
James Cook University
Douglas Grout
State of New Hampshire
Benjamin S. Halpern
University of California, Santa Barbara
Aaron Heidt
Central Coast Indigenous Resource Alliance
Scott A. Heppell
Oregon State University
Emma E Hodgson
University of Washington
Mary E. Hunsicker
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Andrew Johnson
University of California, San Diego
Jean-Baptiste Jouffray
Stockholm University
Steve Kachanoski
Carrie V. Kappel
University of California, Santa Barbara
Kendra Karr
University of California, Santa Cruz
Chris Kelble
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Ryan P. Kelly
Stanford University
John N. Kittinger
Stanford University
Danika Kleiber
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Martha Kongsgaard
Kongsgaard-Goldman Foundation
Joey Lecky
University of Hawaii, Manoa
Phillip Levin
University of Washington
Kreg Lindberg
Oregon State University
Philip Loring
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
John Lynham
University of Hawaii, Mānoa
Megan E. Mach
Stanford University
Nathan J. Mantua
NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)
Shannon Martin
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Rebecca Martone
Center for Ocean Solutions
Patrice McCarron
Maine Lobstermen
Chris McDougal
Haida Nation
Romney McPhie
Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific Coast
Lindley Mease
Center for Ocean Solutions
Melissa Monk
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Joseph Needoba
Oregon Health and Sciences University
Angie Nellas
Zoological Society of London
Corey Niles
Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife
Bruno Nkuiya
University of California, Santa Barbara
Kiva Oken
State University of New Jersey, Rutgers
Kirsten L.L. Oleson
University of Hawaii, Manoa
Melissa Poe
University of Washington
Kathleen M. Reardon
State of Maine
Seann Regan
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Anne Salomon
Simon Fraser University
Jameal Samhouri
NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)
Nicole Sarto
Environmental Defense Fund
Courtney E. Scarborough
University of California, Santa Barbara
Cyreis Schmitt
Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (DFW)
Jennifer Selgrath
University of British Columbia
Kimberly A. Selkoe
University of California, Santa Barbara
Burton Shank
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
William W. Stelle
K and L Gates, LLP
Adrian C. Stier
University of California, Santa Barbara
George Sugihara
University of California, San Diego
Neda Trifonova
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Molly Troup
University of California, Santa Barbara
Mary Turnipseed
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Amanda Van Diggelen
California Department of Fish and Wildlife
Megan Ware
Atlantic States Fisheries Commission
Jessica Watson
Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (DFW)
John Weber
Northeast Regional Ocean Council
Lisa M. Wedding
Center for Ocean Solutions
Kristen Weiss
Center for Ocean Solutions
Crow White
California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo
Gareth Williams
University of California, San Diego
Philip B. Williams
Environmental Science Associates PWA
Debra Wilson-Vandenberg
California Department of Fish and Game
Kate Wing
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
Kristin Worsley
Joy Zedler
University of Wisconsin

Products

  1. Journal Article / 2016

    A comprehensive method for assessing marine resource governance: case study in Kane'ohe Bay, Hawaii

  2. Presentations / 2016

    Reducing illegal fishing using behavior change interventions

  3. Presentations / 2016

    Ecosystem regimes and resilience of Hawaiian coral reefs

  4. Presentations / 2016

    Tipping points and ecosystem based management in Hawai'i

  5. Journal Article / 2018

    Combining fish and benthic communities into multiple regimes reveals complex reef dynamics

  6. Presentations / 2016

    Ecosystem-based management (EBM) roundtable

  7. Presentations / 2016

    Highlighting and expanding opportunities for application of tipping points science within existing US law and policy

  8. Presentations / 2016

    Development of a subtropical, volcanic geology-specific model for sediment delivery in the Hawaiian Islands

  9. Journal Article / 2015

    Using ecological thresholds to inform resource management: current options and future possibilities

  10. Journal Article / 2015

    Characterizing driver-response relationships in marine pelagic ecosystems for improved ocean management

  11. Presentations / 2015

    Identifying leading indicators of shifts in marine ecosystem

  12. Presentations / 2016

    Identifying leading indicators of shifts in marine ecosystem

  13. Presentations / 2016

    Disentangling the role of human and natural drivers of multiple reef regimes across the Hawaiian archipelago

  14. Journal Article / 2019

    Parsing human and biophysical drivers of coral reef regimes

  15. Presentations / 2016

    Ecoystem-based management (EBM) roundtable

  16. Presentations / 2016

    Tackling ocean tipping points: an experiment in science-to-action

  17. Journal Article / 2015

    Thresholds in Caribbean coral reefs: implications for ecosystem-based fishery management

  18. Journal Article / 2014

    Embracing thresholds for better environmental management

  19. Presentations / 2016

    The social and policy implications of climate tipping points

  20. Presentations / 2016

    Can changes in the distribution of one fish lead to irreparable harm to a culture?

  21. Presentations / 2016

    Ecoystem-based management (EBM) roundtable

  22. Presentations / 2016

    Integrating the concept of tipping points into US Federal fisheries management

  23. Journal Article / 2017

    Costly stakeholder participation creates inertia in marine ecosystems

  24. Presentations / 2014

    Embedding the science of tipping points into ocean management

  25. Presentations / 2016

    Predictive models and trade-off analysis for guiding cost-effective land-based management actions for conserving coral reefs

  26. Journal Article / 2017

    Upstream solutions to coral reef conservation: The payoffs of smart and cooperative decision-making

  27. Presentations / 2016

    Implications of spatial and temporal tipping points in herring populations on cultural practices and identity in Haida Gwaii, British Columbia

  28. Presentations / 2016

    The importance of Herring to social and cultural wellbeing in Haida Gwaii

  29. Presentations / 2016

    The next generation of ecosystem based fishery management

  30. Journal Article / 2017

    Defining ecosystem thresholds for human activities and environmental pressures in the California Current

  31. Presentations / 2015

    Gwaii Haanas rapid marine indicator assessment

  32. Journal Article / 2015

    Principles for managing marine ecosystems prone to tipping points

  33. Presentations / 2016

    Defining and maintaining a safe operating space for people and reefs in Hawaii

  34. Presentations / 2016

    The science and management of ecosystem tipping points

  35. Journal Article / 2016

    Ecosystem context and historical contingency in apex predator recoveries

  36. Journal Article / 2016

    Integrating expert perceptions into food web conservation and management

  37. Presentations / 2016

    No smoking gun? The potential roles of people, place, and environment in the loss of a portfolio effect

  38. Presentations / 2016

    The value of information: adaptive monitoring and trade off between monitoring costs and precision in ecosystem assessment

  39. Presentations / 2016

    Incorporating tipping points science into decision-making takes relationships and time

  40. Journal Article / 2018

    Advancing the integration of spatial data to map human and natural drivers on coral reefs

  41. Presentations / 2016

    Tradeoff analysis for balancing multiple objectives in ocean management

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