NCEAS Working Groups
Stochastic demography for an increasingly variable world
Project Description
Both the means and the variances of such important environmental variables as growing-season temperature and rainfall are projected to increase in many regions over the 21st century. While effects on organisms of changes in mean conditions have often been anticipated, the potential effects of increasing variability have been relatively neglected. We propose a Stochastic Demography Working Group to assess how increasing environmental variability is likely to impact populations of plants and animals. Using unpublished demographic data for a diverse set of taxa and new theoretical tools developed by group members, we will compare the effects of changes in the means vs. the variances of environmental variables, as well as the pattern of sensitivity to environmental variability across species, life histories, and habitats. In addition, we will ask whether the demographic processes that most influence population growth are the least sensitive to environmental variation, a pattern that has been observed in the relatively small number of species previously tested and that would serve to buffer populations against increasing environmental variability. Our ultimate goal is to improve the ability of ecologists to forecast the consequences for the long-term viability of populations of not only overall trends in environmental conditions but also expected changes in year-to-year variability.

Principal Investigator(s)
William F. Morris, Catherine A. Pfister, Shripad Tuljapurkar
Project Dates
Start: April 18, 2004
End: November 9, 2005
completed
Participants
- Carol Boggs
- Stanford University
- Mark Boyce
- University of Alberta
- Emilio M. Bruna
- University of Florida
- Tim Coulson
- Imperial College, London, Silwood Park Campus
- Daniel F. Doak
- University of California, Santa Cruz
- John M. Drake
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Jean-Michel Gaillard
- Université Claude Bernard
- Chirakkal V. Haridas
- Stanford University
- Carol C. Horvitz
- University of Miami
- Susan Kalisz
- University of Pittsburgh
- Bruce E. Kendall
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Tiffany M. Knight
- Washington University in St. Louis
- Charlotte Lee
- Stanford University
- Michael Dechen Mastrandrea
- Stanford University
- Eric S. Menges
- Archbold Biological Station
- William F. Morris
- Duke University
- Catherine A. Pfister
- University of Chicago
- Shripad Tuljapurkar
- Stanford University
Products
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Journal Article / 2006
Demography in an increasingly variable world
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Data Set / 2006
Calathea ovandensis demography data
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Data Set / 2006
Ardisia elliptica (invasive exotic) demography in Florida: Light and moisture dependence
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Journal Article / 2006
Lifetime reproductive success and density-dependent multi-variable resource selection
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Journal Article / 2007
Lifetime reproductive success and composition of the home range in a large herbivore
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Journal Article / 2008
Cross-generational effects of habitat and density on life history in red deer
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Presentations / 2005
Population consequences of increasing climatic variability, 11 March 2005
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Journal Article / 2008
Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability
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Data Set / 2006
Hurricane related demography of Ardisia escallonioides (FL)