Brown, Christopher J.; Jupiter, Stacy D.; Albert, Simon; Anthony, Ken; Hamilton, Richard; Fredston-Hermann, Alexa; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Lin, Hsien-Yung; Maina, Joseph; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Mumby, Peter J.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Saunders, Megan I; Tulloch, Vivitskaia J.; Wenger, Amelia; Klein, Carissa J. 2018. A guide to modelling priorities for managing land-Âbased impacts on coastal ecosystems. Journal of Applied Ecology. (Abstract) (Online version)
1.Pollution from landÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âbased runÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âoff threatens coastal ecosystems and the services they provide, detrimentally affecting the livelihoods of millions people on the world's coasts. Planning for linkages among terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems can help managers mitigate the impacts of landÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âuse change on water quality and coastal ecosystem services. 2.We examine the approaches used for landÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âsea planning, with particular focus on the models currently used to estimate the impacts of landÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âuse change on water quality and fisheries. Our findings could also be applied to other ecosystem services. This Review encompasses modelling of: large scale drivers of landÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âuse change; local activities that cause such change; runÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âoff, dispersal and transformation of pollutants in the coastal ocean; ecological responses to pollutants; socioÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âeconomic responses to ecological change; and finally, the design of a planning response. 3.We find there is a disconnect between the dynamical models that can be used to link land to sea processes and the simple tools that are typically used to inform planning. This disconnect may weaken the robustness of plans to manage dynamic processes. LandÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âsea planning is highly interdisciplinary, making the development of effective plans a challenge for small teams of managers and decision makers. 4.Synthesis and applications. We propose some guiding principles for where and how dynamic landÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âsea connections can most effectively be built into planning tools. Tools that can capture pertinent processes are needed, but they must be simple enough to be implemented in regions with limited resources for collecting data, developing models and developing integrated landÃƒÂ¢Ã‚Â€Ã‚Âsea plans.