Brown, Christopher J.; Jupiter, Stacy D.; Albert, Simon; Anthony, Ken; Hamilton, Richard; Fredston-Hermann, Alexa; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Lin, Hsien-Yung; Maina, Joseph; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Mumby, Peter J.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Saunders, Megan I; Tulloch, Vivitskaia J.; Wenger, Amelia; Klein, Carissa J. 2018. A guide to modelling priorities for managing landÃ¢ÂÂbased impacts on coastal ecosystems. Journal of Applied Ecology. (Abstract)
1.Pollution from landÃ¢Â€Âbased runÃ¢Â€Âoff threatens coastal ecosystems and the services they provide, detrimentally affecting the livelihoods of millions people on the world's coasts. Planning for linkages among terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems can help managers mitigate the impacts of landÃ¢Â€Âuse change on water quality and coastal ecosystem services. 2.We examine the approaches used for landÃ¢Â€Âsea planning, with particular focus on the models currently used to estimate the impacts of landÃ¢Â€Âuse change on water quality and fisheries. Our findings could also be applied to other ecosystem services. This Review encompasses modelling of: large scale drivers of landÃ¢Â€Âuse change; local activities that cause such change; runÃ¢Â€Âoff, dispersal and transformation of pollutants in the coastal ocean; ecological responses to pollutants; socioÃ¢Â€Âeconomic responses to ecological change; and finally, the design of a planning response. 3.We find there is a disconnect between the dynamical models that can be used to link land to sea processes and the simple tools that are typically used to inform planning. This disconnect may weaken the robustness of plans to manage dynamic processes. LandÃ¢Â€Âsea planning is highly interdisciplinary, making the development of effective plans a challenge for small teams of managers and decision makers. 4.Synthesis and applications. We propose some guiding principles for where and how dynamic landÃ¢Â€Âsea connections can most effectively be built into planning tools. Tools that can capture pertinent processes are needed, but they must be simple enough to be implemented in regions with limited resources for collecting data, developing models and developing integrated landÃ¢Â€Âsea plans.