Prediction of responses of wild Pacific salmon to climate change

• Erica Fleishman

Abstract
Climate is a major driver of the geographic distribution and abundance of salmon. Climate change is occurring globally, but there has been no organized effort to evaluate the potential effects of climate change, and potential management responses, on populations of salmon and the ecosystems they inhabit. We will conduct synthetic research on the following four high-priority research topics: (1) identification of mechanisms that limit the geographic range of salmon populations and exploration of how these mechanisms may change under projected scenarios of climate change, (2) development of monitoring programs that can identify changes in populations of Pacific salmon and attribute those changes to different potential mechanisms, including climatic change, (3)examination of the relative importance of evolutionary and plastic responses of Pacific salmon to climate change, and (4) classification of salmon populations or metapopulations along a gradient of sensitivity or resilience to climate change, and potential management and conservation strategies that may benefit salmon populations along that gradient under alternative future climates.