NCEAS Working Groups
Ecological Forecasting (Hosted by NCEAS)
Project Description
This workshop will develop the science agenda for an initiative in Ecological
Forecasting. Within this initiative we define Ecological Forecasting as the
process of predicting the state of ecosystems, ecosystem services, and
natural capital based on scenarios for climate, changing atmosphere and
nutrient cycles, and socioeconomic activities. Forecasts address areas
ranging from regions to the globe and time horizons of 10 to 100 years.
The unprecedented threats to human civilization posed by continuing
deterioration of ecosystem services and rapid decline in biodiversity is
the basis for ESA's decision to make Ecological Forecasting a research
priority. We believe that planning and decision making can be improved by
access to reliable forecasts.
This first workshop is funded by the National Science Foundation to set a
science agenda for Ecological Forecasting. The workshop will assess the
readiness of our science to provide ecological forecasts for diverse types
of ecosystems. It will identify the basic research questions that must be
addressed in order to improve the state of the art. It will consider the
mechanisms that might be effective in developing the needed research, such
as novel ways of fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, focusing
collaborations on ecological forecasting, and making the forecasts useful
and informative to decision makers and the general public.
Principal Investigator(s)
James S. Clark
Project Dates
Start: October 15, 2000
End: October 17, 2000
completed
Participants
- Mary C. Barber
- Ecological Society of America
- Stephen R. Carpenter
- University of Wisconsin
- James S. Clark
- Duke University
- Scott L. Collins
- National Science Foundation
- Maurice Crawford
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
- Andrew P. Dobson
- Princeton University
- Jon Foley
- University of Wisconsin
- David M. Lodge
- University of Notre Dame
- Margaret A. Palmer
- University of Maryland, College Park
- Mercedes Pascual
- University of Maryland
- Roger A. Pielke, Jr.
- National Center for Atmospheric Research
- William Pizer
- Stanford University
- Catherine Pringle
- University of Georgia
- Omar J. Reichman
- University of California, Santa Barbara
- Walter V. Reid
- World Resources Institute
- Kenneth Rose
- Louisiana State University
- Osvaldo E. Sala
- Universidad de Buenos Aires
- William H. Schlesinger
- Duke University
- Diana H. Wall
- Colorado State University
- Dave Wear
- Unknown
Products
-
Journal Article / 2001
Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative