SASAP: Interacting effects of ocean climate and at-sea competition on Alaskan salmon

Based on past climate patterns and more recent observations of anomalously warm ocean conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean, we hypothesize that marine habitat thermally suitable for salmon has been contracting and may exacerbate the density-dependence that has been observed for decades across a number North Pacific salmon populations (Peterman 1984, Kaeriyama et al. 2009; Ruggerone and Conners 2015, Jeffrey et al. 2016; Malick and Cox 2016; Yasumisshi et al. 2016; Ruggerone et al., in press, Shaul and Geiger, in press). Changes in ocean conditions and widespread declining trends in some populations have raised concern about the future of some salmon populations in the Northeast Pacific (Healey 2011; Peterman and Dorner 2012; Rand et al. 2012). Some studies have predicted poleward shifts in the ocean distribution of Pacific salmon as a result of climate change (Welch et al. 1998; Kaeriyama et al. 2012) and others have evaluated how the habitat in the Arctic Ocean could become more favorable to Pacific salmon (Irvine et al. 2009; Dunmall et al. 2013; Yoon et al. 2015). While these studies provide insight, our working group is committed to a different approach that will build on a data synthesis from recent oceanographic studies and long-term, salmon population monitoring. By accounting for the interplay between climate and at-sea competitive processes across broad, ocean domains, our work will help inform decision-makers on potential changes in future salmon production. It is vitally important to understand these changes so fisheries and communities can be in a better position to adapt to change. Finally, we will draw on expertise in our working group to evaluate the current gaps in monitoring in the Arctic region and make recommendations on how we can improve our understanding of salmon range extension and colonization in the Arctic.